Hybrid Issues & Answers

1. HybridIssues & Answers Dave Hermance Toyota Technical Center Toyota Engineering and Manufacturing NA

2. Hybrid Post-Crash Risk Hybrid vehicles pose an increased risk to emergency responders and also to service technicians Battery cables are routed through the door!

4. Hybrid Post-Crash Risk • In fact, battery cables are routed down the center of the vehicle under the floor • They are shielded and color coded orange • Emergency Response Guides are available free at http://tis.com • The high voltage pack is electrically isolated from the vehicle under the following conditions: • Key off • Air bag deployment • Roll-over • Impact less than air bag threshold • Current leakage to chassis • Caution is prudent, but risk is not elevated

5. Battery Life Hybrid vehicle batteries will require expensive battery replacement during the vehicle life. This will add huge cost and inconvenience.

6. Service Life [ @40°C ] 16 14 12 Internal Resistance[mΩ/module] 10 '01 Prius 8 ‘04 Prius 6 4 2 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Distance Driven [km]

7. Battery Life • The hybrid application is much less stressful than the consumer electronics batteries you know and replace • Consumer electronics batteries are fully charged, then fully discharged • The most damaging battery use is the top and bottom 20% • Toyota/Lexus hybrid battery usage cycle is ~ 50-70% SOC • In this limited use cycle, batteries exhibit very long life • We have not had any service replacements, warranty or beyond, for decreased capacity • This performance requires aggressive battery SOC management and temperature management and may not apply to all manufacturers

8. Life Cycle Impacts On a “dust to dust” basis, hybrid vehicles have a higher energy requirement than large SUVs

9. Life Cycle Analysis • Originally the auto industry focused only on vehicle use impacts • More recently, the view has been expanded to include fuel cycle impacts or so-called well-to-wheels analysis • Life cycle analysis adds to the well-to-wheels analysis the impacts of materials processing, vehicle manufacturing and end-of-life recycling • Conclusions drawn differ dramatically depending on the scope of the analysis i.e., vehicle only, well-to-wheels or LCA

10. WTW Lifetime CO2 –CA Fuels WTP CO2 (kg/gal) PTW CO2 (gm/mi) Lifetime (150,000 mi) CO2 (metric tons) 20 30 40 50 60 66.4 355 Average 2004 Car 2.16 2005 TDI Diesel 1.95 58.8 329 2005 Prius With HSD 29.7 2.16 159 24.1 2002 RAV4 EV CA Elect 0 15.76 FCHV Natural Gas 12.82 0 35.6 21.25 0 59.0 FCHV Electrolysis CA Elect Based on CA-market 2010 fuels and US combined label fuel economy

11. WTW Lifetime CO2 –US Fuels WTP CO2 (kg/gal) PTW CO2 (gm/mi) Lifetime (150,000 mi) CO2 (metric tons) 20 30 40 50 60 66.4 355 Average 2004 Car 2.16 2005 TDI Diesel 1.95 58.8 329 2005 Prius With HSD 29.7 2.16 159 2002 RAV4 EV US Elect 37.5 0 24.55 FCHV Natural Gas 12.82 0 35.6 33.75 0 93.7 FCHV Electrolysis US Elect Based on US-market 2010 fuels and US combined label fuel economy

12. Life Cycle Assessment 2004 Prius vs. 2.4L PZEV mid-size Environmental Affairs Div., TMC: “New Prius Green Report”, p.6. July 2003.

13. Life Cycle Analysis • Toyota is a major proponent of life cycle analysis, we began using LCA for new vehicle development with the 2004 Prius • LCA is useful for criteria pollutant , CO2 and energy evaluation • MIT & ANL have also published LCA studies • In all prior published work (Toyota, MIT & ANL), materials processing, vehicle manufacturing and recycling has been a small fraction of the total burden • We are eager to review the detail of the CNW work, but skeptical of the huge energy impacts claimed in the tease

14. Fuel Economy Shortfall Hybrid vehicles exhibit a much larger fuel economy shortfall than conventional vehicles. Hybrid vehicles don’t deliver promised fuel savings

15. Quiz • Two neighbors buy new cars • Bob’s vehicle is rated 50 mpg, but delivers 40 mpg • Joe’s vehicle is rated 21 mpg, but delivers 19 mpg • Which neighbor will wind up buying more “extra” fuel over a year (Assume 15,000 miles per year) • Bob – 10 mpg loss is bigger than 2 mpg! • Bob - 20% less FE burns more than 10% less • Joe – he obviously drives an SUV and they suck fuel • Equal – Both burn the same additional fuel above ratings d)Each will buy an extra 75 gallons over 15,000 miles

16. 75gal/yr 75gal/yr Consumption vs. Fuel Economy 750gal/yr 250gal/yr 125gal/yr 75gal/yr 50gal/yr 36gal/yr Consumption – Gallons/Year

17. Hybrid Shortfall • High efficiency vehicles (including hybrids) see a larger shortfall in MPG terms than typical vehicles • On a fuel consumed basis all vehicles incur about the same shortfall in the real world versus the EPA tests • The major problem is that our measuring stick is bent and provides misleading information

18. Gallons Saved • Every 100 gallons of gasoline saved has the following impacts: • ~$300 in the owners pocket • ~ One ton CO2 not emitted • ~4 barrels of crude not consumed • Each additional 100 gallons saved has the same impacts (the metric is linear)

19. John’s 2001 and 2004 Prius 48.5 avg 45.4 avg Update

20. Popular Mechanics Comparison

21. Road and Track Comparison

22. Revised Fuel Economy Labels • EPA received complaints regarding label FE • Labels adjustments last revised in mid-80’s • Labels based on emissions testing • EPA proposes to revise to use additional data • First step for 2008 MY • Another step in 2011 MY • All values will go down • Combined weighting also changes

23. Your actual mileage can vary significantly: • Some factors are beyond your control • traffic, geography and climate • Some you can control: • Speeding, aggressive driving or not maintaining your vehicle well Annual estimates based on 15,000 miles and $2.20/gallon 652 gal. $1435 This vehicle 375 gal. $825 682 gal. $1496 Range of compact vehicles

24. Impact of EPA Proposal

25. Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in hybrids are ready today and are a silver bullet solution for improving air quality, eliminating foreign oil dependence and reducing “Greenhouse Gases”

26. Toyota’s Plug-in Position • As a long term vision, Plug-in HVs are an appealing technology in terms of energy diversity. Depending on grid mix and manufacturing efficiency they may offer reduced life cycle CO2 and reduced fuel consumption at the same time * • To reach this vision, however, it is necessary for us to have breakthroughs in battery technology, including capacity, durability and cost. With today’s latest technology, Plug-in HV is not commercially and technologically feasible.

27. Plug-in Application • Much more battery on board • Mass, volume & cost impacts • Energy storage system • More like consumer electronics than today’s hybrids • Wide daily swings of SOC • Historically 100% to 20% • Much more stressful for the battery • Durability becomes a real issue • Life of vehicle battery is unlikely • Major in-use cost impact

28. Plug-in Application Questions • EV range vs improved efficiency • EV range is traditional plug-in, but it has issues • Requires more motor and electronic power • Possible test related issues • Liability issues • Operating strategy • Emission implications • “Defeat device” questions • Battery durability

29. Market Acceptance • Market acceptance is critical • Cost/benefit “Value proposition” • Performance/fuel savings “Right balance” • Can / should EV performance match HEV • Pure EV operation or just enhanced efficiency • Charging convenience