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Risk Assessment Consortium

How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making Listeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples. Risk Assessment Consortium Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions Richard Whiting CFSAN.

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Risk Assessment Consortium

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  1. How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision makingListeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples Risk Assessment Consortium Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions Richard Whiting CFSAN

  2. A risk assessment is what you do when the data are less than ideal

  3. Finding data for a risk assessment is a lot like a scavenger hunt

  4. Ideal solution for data quality and utility • Conduct preliminary quantitative risk assessment • Identify critical data gaps (quality, utility) • Collect data • Complete risk assessment

  5. Relevancy ~ Data Utility • Uncertainty

  6. Relevancy • How pertinent is this data to this particular risk assessment? • Survey studies • Place • Time

  7. Geographic and temporal factors for V. parahaemolyticus

  8. CDC FoodNet and NFPA Contamination Data

  9. Treatment of Lm Contamination Data • Weight by number of samples • Weight by year (≤1993, 94-98, ≥ 99: 0.4, 0.7, 1.0) • Weight by country US, developed countries, importing countries vs others (1.0, 0.3) • No recent data Adjust by total food supply data

  10. Relevancy of microbial data • Always a question • Strains used, selectivity/specificity of methods • Lab/pilot plant ~ commercial • Composition of product 17 growth in deli meat data sets included Corned beef Cooked ham Vacuum packed ham Bologna Sliced chicken/turkey Turkey loaf Cooked chicken Roast beef Growth in franks with lactate-diacetate not included

  11. Uncertainty • Should be added to data

  12. Home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats—AMIsurvey, 2001 Average time Fraction 1 to 3 days 0.32 4 to 7 0.37 8 to 10 0.06 11 to 14 0.04 15 to 21 0.01 22 to 30 0.01 31 to 60 0.01 > 60 0.00 30 0 10 20 Storage time

  13. 1 0.1 0.01 Gompertz Probability of Gastroenteritis 0.001 Probit 0.0001 0.00001 Beta-Poisson Human Feeding Trials Data 0.000001 Mean Ingested Dose (cfu) Three dose-response models for V. p. fitted to data

  14. Uncertainty for V.p.Dose-response Beta Poisson Model 1.0 0.8 0.6 Probability of Illness 0.4 0.2 0.0 4 6 8 10 12 Mean Dose (log cfu per Exposure)

  15. Uncertainty and Data Quality • 2-way Risk assessment 6 - 10 15 - 45

  16. Low variation, low uncertainty

  17. High variation, low uncertainty

  18. Low variation, high uncertainty

  19. High variation, high uncertainty

  20. Data Quality and Utility • Are data good enough for the RM to use the RA to reach a conclusion or are the uncertainties too great? 4 Listeriosis cases per year 3 2 1 Total Cases Listeriosis per Annum (log scale) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 F V P IC UM CD HC RS CR SS FR PF PC DS DM PM FSC HFD FNR SUC DFS SSC SRC

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