Myths and Realities: Structural Change in U.S. Labor Markets and the Great Recession

1. Myths and Realities: Structural Change in U.S. Labor Markets and the Great Recession Peter B. Doeringer Department of Economics, Boston University IILS Round Table on The Global Job Crisis: Emerging Perspectives International Labour Office, Geneva, 22 February 2013 I am grateful to the Economic Policy Institute for making a number of graphics available from The State of Working America (12th Edition)

2. Symptoms of the Great Recession Myth or Reality During the Great Recession Public Policies and Priorities

3. Symptoms of the Great Recession

4. Unusual Job Losses

5. Unemployed Workers and Job Openings, By Industry, 2011 (in millions)

6. Long-term Unemployment, 1948–2011 38.1% January 2013

7. Myth or Reality During the Great Recession? • A university degree is no longer worth the investment • Women fared better than men in the recession • Good jobs have disappeared • Private welfare benefits are surviving; social safety nets have failed

8. A University Degree Is No Longer Worth the Investment

9. Pre-Recession College Earnings Advantage: Male Workers

10. Unemployment Rates Rising for College Graduates During the Recession

11. Entry-level Real Wages of College Graduates Falling Since 2002

12. Entry-level Real Wages of High School GraduatesFalling Since 2001

13. College Wage Premiums Are Still Rising

14. Women Fared Better Than Men in the Recession

15. Unemployment Rates by Gender, 2000-2012

16. Job Loss by Gender In the Great Recession (Dec. 2007–Dec. 2011)

17. Cumulative Change In Real Hourly Wages of Women, by Wage Percentile, 1979–2011

18. Cumulative Change in Real Hourly Wages of Men, by Wage Percentile, 1979–2011

19. The Gender Wage Gap Continues to Narrow • 1939 = 62% • 1959 = 45% • 1979 = 38% • 1999 = 24% • 2007 = 18% • 2011 = 16%

20. Good Jobs Have Disappeared

21. Long-Duration Jobs (1983, 2008)Years with Current Employer (wage & salary workers age 20+) 19832008 20+ years 9% 11% 10+ years 27% 28% 2 Years or Less 37% 34% 10+ Years, age 45-49 -- Men 58% 44% -- Women 33% 37% 10+ Years, age 55-59 -- Men 66% 55% -- Women 51% 50%

22. “Good” Jobs As a Share of Total Employment, 1979–2010 [Schmitt and Jones, CEPR, 2012 ]

23. % Change in Employment Shares by Type of Job Duties, 1981-2011[Jaimovich and Siu, The Trend is the Cycle, NBER Working Paper 18334, May 2012]

24. Private Welfare Benefits Are Surviving; Social Safety Nets Have Failed

25. Share of Recent College Graduates With Employer Health/Pension Coverage, 1979–2010

26. Share of Recent High School Graduates with Employer Health & Pension Coverage, 1979–2010

27. Share of Unemployed Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits, 1989-2011

28. Per Capita Social Security Expenditures and the Elderly Poverty Rate, 1959–2011

29. Public Policy? • Priorities: More jobs, less chronic unemployment, better jobs, less labor market polarization • Active Policies • Better job matching • Education and training • Regional economic development and labor mobility • Work-based transitions: School-to-work, Re-employment • Labor Market Regulation • Minimum wages and employment standards • Unions and collective bargaining policy • Anti-discrimination policies • Immigration policy • Public sector employment and HR reforms • Full Employment