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POPULIST PHANTASIES IN POSTCOMMUNISM OF THE 2010IES

POPULIST PHANTASIES IN POSTCOMMUNISM OF THE 2010IES. By Pal TAMAS [HAS –Corvinus, Budapest]. DE-DEMOCRATIZATION. Trends in the late 2000ies: De-Democratization in post-communism in 4-5 indicator systems [BTI, Freedom House, etc.]

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POPULIST PHANTASIES IN POSTCOMMUNISM OF THE 2010IES

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  1. POPULIST PHANTASIES IN POSTCOMMUNISM OF THE 2010IES By Pal TAMAS [HAS –Corvinus, Budapest]

  2. DE-DEMOCRATIZATION Trends in the late 2000ies: De-Democratization in post-communism in 4-5 indicator systems [BTI, Freedom House, etc.] • not-only in the Post-Soviet region, but in „finalized” democracies of Central Europe, as well • New movements, rhetorics and public ideologies from the bottom, used and amplified by elites

  3. RE-INTERPRETATIONS Metaphores of the 90ies • Linearity in democracy-building • 1989-1991 collapse and democracy could not be separated • Democracy and market are united • Real danger: return of communists • Hibrid regimes are temporarities a-e SEEMS NOW UNDEFENDABLE

  4. NEW REALITIES • Soft borders between hibrids and mainstream democracies • Hibrids are generated not by breaks in thier prehistories, but by the international political environmets [„drivers licencies”] • Markets are more stabile, then democracies • Nation-states versus neoliberal order

  5. Try to guess: which countries were hares (rabbits) and which were turtles (tortois)?

  6. REGIME CHANGE [LINDE-ECKMAN, 2010]

  7. OLD/NEW REGIME THEORIES Pseudo-multipartism [Juan LINZ, 1973-75] Competitive authoritarianism [LEVITSKY-WAY, 2002] Hegemobic-noncompetitive [Andreas SCHEDLER, 2002] Transit outcomes [O’DONNELL, SCHMITTER] A.democracy B.DICTABLANDA [liberalized authoritarian] C. DEMOCRADURA [restricted, illiberal democracy]

  8. DUALIZATION OF ECONOMY/SOCIETY 2 STRATEGIC CONFLICTS: A.INTERNATIONAL/LOCAL B.COSTS/BENEFITS OF TRANSFORMATION

  9. DUALIZATION 2

  10. Political strategies A + B exclusion of the bottom C + D classic. class struggle 2.0 A + C liberal modernization B + D national populism

  11. strategies 2 • Vulnerability • Exit, voice, loyalty [Hirschmann, 1970] loyalty – clienture exit- mobility, migration voice –grassroot populism

  12. QUALITY PROBLEM Cost of Exit: Low Cost of Exit: High Information Channels Information Channels Closed Open Open Closed Loyalty Problem Voice Loyalty Problem Loyalty: High Loyalty: Low Loyalty: High Loyalty: Low Loyalty Exit Loyalty Exit Outline of the Exit, Voice and Loyalty Framework

  13. Reasons for exit

  14. POPULISM MATRIX

  15. E U R O S C E P T I C I S M Neoliberal Right Neoconservative Right Radical Left Populist radical Right - For nation-state and sovereignity - For preserving national and cultural identity - For Christian values in EU constitution - Against lower level of democracy Type: soft - Defence of Welfare state - Against globalization and neoliberalism Types: soft (left radical socialists) hard (eurocommunists) - Against excessive regulations - For free market - For confederation - Against EU federation - Against integration - For nation-state - Against EU federation - For Europe of homelands - Against globalization - Against immigrants and multiculturalism Type: hard radical II. Euroscepticism placed on the ideological continuum of Second Modern

  16. „ THIN” AND „THICK” POPULISM THIN POPULISM • Direct references to the „people” [on behalf, in the name….] • Simple people, nation, hard working, the taxpayers] THICK POPULISM • CORRUPTION, ANTI INSTITUTIONS • ANTIELITIST, ANTIMODERN, ANTI-URBAN,ANTI.INTERNATIONAL

  17. Oliver Löser: Demokratie, Republikanismus, Gemeinsinn und politische Ordnung MEASUREMENT OF THICKNESS/THINNESS OF POPULISM Dimensionen des „dicken Populismus“: Inklusion und Exklusion bestimmter gesellschaftlicher Gruppen und Elemente (bei Exklusion häufig mit Schuldzuweisung) Gemeinsinn zerstört Gemeinsinn? Durchmesser des Kreises: Ausmaß des „dünnen Populismus“ Quelle:Jagers & Walgrave (2007), S. 333

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