Using international security research networks: the Global Futures Forum

1. Using international security research networks:the Global Futures Forum Jean-Louis Tiernan Sr. Coordinator, Academic Outreach Canadian Security Intelligence Service

2. What the GFF is Foresight • Global knowledge network • Launched by Canada and the U.S • Driven by governments • Involves over 40 countries • Serves security and intelligence • Steers clear of policy prescriptions • Examines transnational security issues Research Expert outreach

3. What the GFF does To reap the benefits of networked collaboration for intelligence analysis, the GFF: • Tests current thinking, challenges analytic assumptions, widens the range of considered outcomes, and discovers questions that are not being asked; • Complements traditional intelligence analysis by creating a context to interpret classified information; • Generates collaborative insights and early warning of potential threats and opportunities that might go unrecognised by relying solely on traditional intelligence; • Enables rapid learning through real-time exchanges; • Encourages the sharing, co-creation, and integration of new analytic methodologies; • Creates non-traditional linkages among governments, academe, think-tanks and business.

4. GFF and traditional intelligence Complementarity

5. An evolving idea: history of the GFF The GFF is the outcome of international conferences: Singapore 2010 Prague 2006 Rome 2004 Washington 2005 Vancouver 2008

6. How it works The General Meetings • The international conferences which led to the GFF have become interactive meeting points for the global analytic community. Hosted by a different country every year, the annual meeting, likened by some to a “mini Davos of analysis”, sets the direction of the GFF for the year ahead. It also provides a platform to examine emerging issues. Communities of interest and other substantive activities • Communities of interest (COIs), led and developed by various countries, meet between the annual meetings to discuss specific global security issues. Existing and past COIs have looked into: radicalisation, global disease, illicit trafficking, social networks, technological surprise, genocide prevention, proliferation, the practise and organisation of intelligence, economic security and strategic foresight and warning. On-line collaboration • Between face-to-face meetings, the current 1500 individual members use the password-protected site to share resources and exchange using blogs, discussion forums, wikis, etc.

7. Role of CSIS and Canada’s place • Plans and develops the participation of Canada’s S&I community in the Forum; • Chairs informal national advisory group (PCO, CSIS, DND, CBSA, DFAIT, RCMP) to co-ordinate input; • Supports our U.S. intelligence partners in developing and expanding the Forum globally; • Sets Canadian position on governance issues; • Chairs GFF Steering Group; • Serves as strategic facilitator: Canada now most active member country.

8. Results so far Contents point of view • Community of interest on radicalisation (Meech Lake, Brussels, Ottawa, The Hague, Singapore). Those have allowed the community to understand an issue characterised by an extreme case of information overflow. • Innovative methodologies to explore trends in radicalisation were used, including alternative scenarios. • Systems model to understand the linkages between actors and motivations in illicit trafficking (small arms, drugs, humans). Process point of view • “Early signals”: As a result of Canada’s involvement, rehearsed professional networks are now in place and can be relied on to receive updates from various capitals or research centres. • Vancouver 2008: Canada emerges as an innovator in intelligence. • Significant boost to launch CSIS Academic Outreach program in 2008.

9. What next? Some upcoming activities • Making foresight “actionable” (U.S.) – 18-19 March • Prosperity and Security: the Challenges of Uncertain Economic Times (Canada) – 8 March and 15 April • Practise and organisation of intelligence (Denmark) – 20-22 June • Practise and organisation of intelligence (Switzerland) – early 2011 • Food security (Canada) – early 2011

10. Some lessons learned Making networks work? Foresight is important can be discredited easily with bad planning Identify your needs as government Manage your expectations; set goals Star small and use precise focus Use GFF as an entrepreneurial lab

11. Becoming involved www.globalfuturesforum.org Janelle Boucher boucherja@smtp.gc.ca Jean-Louis Tiernan tiernanj@smtp.gc.ca