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Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University. M. L. Cessna Manager of Global Regulatory Affairs ExxonMobil Gas and Power Marketing November 9, 2010. Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold. Global Demand By Fuel. Quadrillion BTUs.

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Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

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  1. Global Energy Security ForumFlorida International University M. L. Cessna Manager of Global Regulatory Affairs ExxonMobil Gas and Power Marketing November 9, 2010

  2. Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold Global Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs • Today, oil and gas meet ~60% of the world’s energy needs – wasn’t always so • Significant energy mix changes take decades to gain a foothold – Biomass > Coal > Oil > Gas • Alternative fuels will help meet our energy needs (~2% by 2030) • Fossil fuels maintain prominence in fueling global economic growth Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Biomass 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  3. Global Energy Demand Growth by Fuel Demand Demand Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Energy Savings World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2% ~300 0.7% 2.0% 2030 0.7% 2005 2.3% 0.4% 2.1% 9.9%

  4. Energy Demand by Region OECD Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Other Africa Middle East Other Latin America India Europe OECD China United States

  5. Power Generation Demand North America Europe Asia Pacific Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

  6. Gas Supply and Demand United States Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD LNG Pipeline Unconventional Local Production Conventional

  7. Unconventional Gas – Paradigm Change • Outlook for unconventional gas is changing as new information becomes available Source: EIA Annual Outlooks (2000-2010)

  8. Unconventional Gas Resource North Slope CBM • Resources for ~100 years coverage at current demand • Unconventional gas has extended coverage 60+ years • Further unconventional gains expected Cook Inlet CBM Horn River Major Unconventional Gas Basins Montney Producing Tight Gas Producing CBM Producing Shale Gas Powder River Tight Gas, Shale Gas & CBM Basins Jonah & Pinedale Marcellus Piceance Granite Wash Woodford San Juan Fayetteville Barnett Shale Haynesville Eagle Ford

  9. US & Canada Unconventional Supply Conventional & Unconventional Gas Production Shale Gas Production Source: Wood Mackenzie North America Long-Term Gas View, September 2010 • By 2020, shale gas plays throughout US & Canada ... • ... offset 7 BCFD decline in conventional supply, and • ... meet 13 BCFD in projected demand growth, by • .... tripling the current level of production to 34 BCFD

  10. Source: ExxonMobil Hydraulic Fracturing

  11. Conclusion • Reliable and affordable energy is essential for economic growth • Natural gas will play an increasing role in meeting future demand • Sensible policies are needed to realize potential benefits

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