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How Did We Get Here and Where Are we Going? NGEAO January 12, 2012. Chris Skoog SVP. www.enterpriseproducts.com. Forward Looking Statements.
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How Did We Get Here and Where Are we Going?NGEAOJanuary 12, 2012 Chris Skoog SVP www.enterpriseproducts.com
Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information based on Enterprise’s beliefs and those of its general partner, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to them. When used in this presentation, words such as “anticipate,” “project,” “expect,” “plan,” “seek,” “goal,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “intend,” “could,” “should,” “will,” “believe,” “may,” “potential,” and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of Enterprise for future operations, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although Enterprise and its general partner believe that such expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, neither it nor its general partner can give assurances that such expectations will prove to be correct. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those Enterprise anticipated, estimated, projected or expected. Among the key risk factors that may have a direct bearing on Enterprise’s results of operations and financial condition are: • Fluctuations in oil, natural gas and NGL prices and production due to weather and other natural and economic forces; • A reduction in demand for its products by the petrochemical, refining or heating industries; • The effects of its debt level on its future financial and operating flexibility; • A decline in the volumes of energy commodities delivered by its facilities; • The failure of its credit risk management efforts to adequately protect it against customer non-payment; • Actual construction and development costs could exceed forecasted amounts; • Operating cash flows from our capital projects may not be immediate; • National, international, regional and local economic, competitive and regulatory conditions; • Terrorist attacks aimed at its facilities; and • The failure to successfully integrate its operations with assets or companies, if any, that it may acquire in the future. The foregoing discussion of important factors may not be all-inclusive and Enterprise provides additional cautionary discussion of risks and uncertainties under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” contained in its recent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements attributable to Enterprise or any person acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained herein, in such filings and in its future periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Enterprise has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Overview Largest publicly traded energy partnership in United States with an enterprise value of approximately $55 billion Integrated midstream energy system serving producers and consumers of natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products Accesses some of the most prolific natural gas / NGL / crude oil supply areas in the U.S. Serves all U.S. ethylene steam crackers (largest consumer of NGLs) Serves 95% of refining capacity east of the Rockies Diversified businesses and sources of cash flow Investor-friendly partnership structure – no GP IDRs History of financial discipline while executing growth strategy Increased cash distribution 29 consecutive quarters; 172% since IPO
Leading Business Positions AcrossMidstream Energy Value Chain Midstream Energy Services Natural Gas Natural Gas Pipelines Natural Gas Pipelines Storage Mixed NGLs Natural Gas Pipelines Ethane Gas Processing Propane Natural Gas Butane Iso-Butane Nat. Gasoline Crude Oil NGL Pipelines Mixed NGLs Pipelines Storage NGL Fractionation Trucks Barges Barges Storage Storage Refined Products Pipelines Crude Oil Pipelines Provide services at every link of the value chain Crude Oil Refining
EPD Portfolio of Integrated Assets Major Asset Overview Approximately 50,000 miles of natural gas, NGL, crude oil, refined products and petrochemical pipelines 192 MMBbls of NGL, refined products and crude oil & 8 Bcf of natural gas storage capacity 25 natural gas processing plants 20 NGL & Propylene fractionators 6 offshore hub platforms NGL import / export terminals Butane isomerization complex; octane enhancement facility; high-purity isobutylene facility Note: Does not include assets of Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. in which EPD owns a noncontrolling equity interest effective with the merger of Enterprise GP Holdings L.P. (the “Holdings Merger”).
Enterprise Natural Gas Gathering Assets • The foundation from which we build our perspective • Gathering ~13.5% total U.S. Dry Gas Production • Diverse gathering asset base • Does not include non-operated gathering • About 80 percent processed in liquid rich plays Sources: Energy Information Administration, Enterprise Data
How Did We Get Here? You may ask yourself, how did I get here? “Once in a Lifetime” - The Talking Heads • High natural gas prices encouraged development of unconventional natural gas sources • Tight Sands • Shale Gas • Wide basis and rate stacking environment encouraged development of “express” lanes to market centers • Rockies Express • Mid-Continent Express • Gulf Crossing • Capital Plentiful and historical low rates
Cheap Capital Leads to Infrastructure Growth Source: EIA
How Did We Get Here? Low Prices Driven by Supply • Shale Gas • Rig Efficiency/Horizontal drilling • Continued Gathering/Transmission Systems Buildout • Production up 10 Bcf/d in last 4 years • Big production increase in all areas • Marcellus / Utica / Haynesville • Bakken / Barnett / Granite Wash / Rockies • Significant resources have been discovered and are not yet being produced
How Did We Get Here? Margin compression • Storage • Almost 500 Bcf of new storage capacity built since early 2000’s • Concurrent 20 Bcf/d new deliverability (nearly 50% increase) • Vast majority of the new storage in producing region • Transport (basis) • REX effect (Rockies discount and saturation of mid-continent) • Gulf Crossing/Midcontinent Express effect (Station 85 premium disappears) • The Barnett Effect (Waha discount disappears) • Ruby Pipeline (Rockies starts trading at premium) • Transparency • Electronic trading providing visibility of pricing at almost all locations • LDC’s revising growth forecasts, peak day requirements and going to online supply auctions • Producers stepping up and doing more direct marketing
Existing and Emerging Shale / Non-Conventional Plays Williston Basin Bakken Appalachian Basin Marcellus Appalachian Basin Utica Powder River Basin Niobrara Uinta Basin Mancos Michigan Basin Antrim Denver Basin Niobrara Michigan Basin Utica Piceance Basin Mancos Arkoma Basin Woodford Appalachian Basin Marcellus & Utica & Ohio Arkoma Basin Fayetteville Anadarko Basin Woodford Illinois Basin New Albany San Juan Basin Mancos Fort Worth Basin Barnett Primarily Rich Gas Primarily Dry Gas Permian Basin Avalon & Wolfcamp Black Warrior Basin Floyd & Chattanooga Delaware Basin Barnett / Woodford South Louisiana Tuscaloosa Marine North Louisiana, East Texas Haynesville & Bossier South Texas Eagle Ford & Pearsall
Growing shale gas reserves and production replace conventional reserves and displace LNG imports High potential that No. America will be exporting natural gas in the near future Like with LPGs, LNG might come to the US opportunistically because of extensive infrastructure Shale Gas Dominates EIA Natural Gas Production Forecast PGC Resources estimate of future gas supplies equal 100 yrs supply at current consumption levels Shale technology has advanced rapidly: multi-well drilling pads, longer horizontal laterals, fit for purpose rigs, improved pumping capacity, increased frac stages per lateral and reduced water requirements To accommodate new supplies of natural gas the U.S and Canada will need capital investments in excess of $200 billion over next 25 years. Anticipate similar expansion opportunities from energy intensive industries including the petrochemicals - The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America Step Change increases, New Shale Plays Source: EIA 2011 World Energy Outlook Sources: Energy Information Administration for proved reserves, Potential Gas Committee for potential resources. 2010 estimated.
Storage • Developers Overbuilt capacity • Plentiful Capital • Large Winter/Summer spreads due to Katrina/Rita • Taking advantage of supply dislocations • Built header systems to enhance pipe-to-pipe arbitrage • Capacity Subscribers • Banks and marketing companies • Driven by large winter peaking premiums paid by utilities • Volatility and pricing overall was running at above normal range • All storage is not created equal • Location • Deliverability
Growing Shale Supplies Are Reshaping the Pipeline Grid Rapidly growing Shale Gas supplies and declining conventional resources are changing the pipeline landscape The GOM production has decreased from 15 Bcf/d in 2000 to 5 Bcf/d today and is expected to continue to decline Similar regional trends are happening in Crude as North American non-conventional supplies grow rapidly Bakken 1+ Utica ?? Marcellus 3-12 Fayetteville 2+ Barnett 5+ Haynesville 7+ Eagle Ford 5+
Transport • New supply basins/deliverability required new infrastructure (producer driven) • Significant new supply growth closer or near market areas • Enhanced location price differentials (spreads) • Cheap capital guaranteed minimum returns • Pipelines built with upside in mind • Overbuild resulted in moving spreads toward variable costs • Eliminated upside potential in the short run • Producers benefit from tighter basis for incremental production
Next 18-24 months • Current market conditions stagnant • Supply abundance keeps prices low • NGL value augment otherwise low returns on pure natural gas • Rig counts have fallen off but not enough to offset higher rig efficiency • Location spreads stays tight as market absorbs recent and new capacity builds • Winter/Summer spreads remain tight • Oversupply of natural gas • Cheap storage capacity • Utilities more conservative buying trends driven by gas abundance • Transparency • Continues to drive lower margins • Online trading platforms continue to flatten arbitrage opportunities • Supply reliability of a lesser concern
Gas Drilling Profitability is Heavily Dependent on NGLs $7.34 Assumes 30% Feedstock shrinkage $3.25
Beyond 24 months • Prices experience demand driven increase • Electrical Generation • Energy intensive industrials (chemicals, fertilizer, steel) • Exports >12 Bcf export permits applied for in 9 locations • Location spreads widen due to regional supply/demand dislocations caused by shales and infrastructure • Vast majority of major infrastructure (long haul transport) is in place • Storage values increase due to fundamental change in pricing to follow electric demand and higher absolute price
Attractive Demand Dynamics Natural Gas Demand by Region (Bcf/d) Source: ICF International
Compelling Long-Term Natural Gas Storage Fundamentals Despite increased demand for storage services, the development of new natural gas storage capacity is lagging • EIA reported only 469 Bcf of total new natural gas storage capacity has entered the market since 2000 • 589 Bcf of new gas storage capacity will be needed during the next 25 years • 291 Bcf (50%) of total capacity additions will be from salt cavern storage development Natural Gas Fundamentals Total U.S. Natural Gas Storage Capacity and Types of Facilities Note: Facility-level data is not available for 2010 and 2011 Natural Gas Storage Capacity Additions Through 2025 Source: EIA, ICF International
In Summary • Short term, next 18 months, batten down the hatches—low prices and compressed marketing margins are here to stay during this period • Align your infrastructure costs to weather the storm • Transport • Storage • Personnel • 24 months and beyond, margins comeback due to: • Reduced competition • Demand starts to catch up with supply • Intra-Regional spreads expand to pay for infrastructure • Economy recovers