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Learn why monitoring climate change is crucial for wildlife planners, the questions it can answer, elements of a monitoring program, and measures to assess effectiveness in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Discover existing programs, available data, and how to incorporate monitoring into wildlife plans.
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Monitoring a changing climate: An overview for State Wildlife Planners Jonathan Mawdsley The Heinz Center
Why Monitor Climate Change? • Tells you what is happening on the ground • Provides data for testing model projections • Provides data for additional modeling • Provides feedback on effectiveness of your conservation actions • Allows course corrections to your management activities
Questions Monitoring Can Answer • How is the climate actually changing? • How is climate change affecting the biophysical environment? • How is climate change affecting species and ecosystems? • How effective are our climate-change mitigation and adaptation activities?
Monitoring Climate Change Elements of a monitoring program: • Direct measures of climate change • Secondary effects of climate change • Ecological effects of climate change • Effectiveness monitoring of mitigation and adaptation activities
Good News! • Many existing monitoring programs • Much data already available • Synthetic studies of data published • Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change • U. S. Global Change Research Program • National Climate Assessment • Translational products available on Web, some even user-friendly!
Direct Measures Meteorological measures • Temperature, precipitation, weather events, storm frequency… Records maintained and synthesized by: • National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) • www.ncdc.noaa.gov • Regional Climate Centers Recommend working with local meteorologists (local university) to obtain and interpret data
Secondary Effects of Climate Change • Sea Level Rise • NOAA Tides and Currents, Sea Level Rise Viewer • Fire frequency, intensity • Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center LANDFIRE • Floods • USGS Floods and Droughts • FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer • Droughts • USGS Floods and Droughts • National Drought Monitor (USDA, NOAA) • Extreme Storm Events – National Climatic Data Center
Ecological Effects • Changes in phenology • USA National Phenology Network, Nature’s Notebook • Extensive literature on phenological shifts • Changes in distribution • 2012 analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data • Many reports in literature • Changes in population size/extent • Again, Breeding Bird Survey analyses • Increasing number of reports in literature
Monitoring Species Different approaches: • Identify species that are of interest to management authorities, determine areas of vulnerability, and monitor those • Identify species at greatest risk from climate change and monitor changes in those species • Depends on the management approach of your department/agency
Climate Change and Western Lands • Workshops in four states (AZ, NV, UT, WY) • Identify conservation targets for management • Identify threats, stressors, conservation actions • Develop conceptual model • Identify key rates, states, processes for monitoring • Identify existing monitoring programs that provide relevant data • Establish priorities for new data collection
Helping Desert Bighorns Adapt • Strategic planning effort paralleling State Wildlife Plan • Identified focal species of cultural, ecological, economic importance • For focal species, identify movement corridors, refugia • Manage habitat along corridors to promote connections • Judicious translocations to suitable future habitats • Monitor habitat, population responses
Effectiveness Measures What you monitor depends on what you are trying to accomplish with your management activities Many proposed measures are straightforward: • Mitigation: plant trees; measure tree growth and carbon uptake • Mitigation: protect forest lands; measure carbon sequestered in forest & not released to atmosphere • Adaptation: restore corridors; measure wildlife movements along restored corridors • Adaptation: species translocation; measure survival and recruitment at new site(s)
Take-home Messages • You can incorporate climate monitoring information into your State Wildlife Plan • Climate monitoring programs, data already available • Many of our existing monitoring programs can yield data about climate change and its effects on wildlife and ecosystems