Climate Working Group Briefing Wednesday 29 March 2006 NOAA Climate Program Office

1. NOAA CLIMATE Understanding climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond Climate Working Group Briefing Wednesday 29March 2006 NOAA Climate Program Office Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office

2. Outline • Overview of Meeting and Agenda • Response to March 2005 mtg recommendations • NOAA Climate program overview • Congressional and EOP update • Budget Discussion • FY05 Highlights • FY06 Enacted • FY07 Request • FY08 Priorities • FY09 Directions • NOAA/NASA Research and Operations Transition • CCSP Update • NOAA Climate in the community • Climate Working Group Issues • 2006 Meeting schedule • Membership

3. Meeting purpose and Agenda • Purpose: Program review and priorities • Agenda - Wednesday • 7:30-8:00 Continental Breakfast • 8:00-10: 00 Executive Session (Closed) • 10:00-10:30 Break • 10:30-10:45 Welcome and Introductions Mark Abbott, Otis Brown • 10:45-12:00 Overview Chet Koblinsky • 12:00-1:00 Lunch Carl Burleson, FAA • Climate Program Status and Review • 1:00-3:00 Observations and Analysis Program Tom Karl, lead • 3:00-3:30 Break • 3:30-5:30 Observations and Analysis Program (continued) • 5:30 Adjourn • CWG Dinner with Director

4. Meeting Agenda (cont.) • Purpose: Program review and priorities • Agenda - Thursday • 7:30-8:00 Continental Breakfast • 8:00- 10:00 Climate Forcing Program A.R. Ravishankara, lead • 10:00-10:30 Break • 10:30-11:30 Climate Forcing Program (continued) • 11:30-12:30 Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa, lead • 12:30-1:30 Lunch • 1:30-3:30 Climate Predictions and Projections (continued)3:30-4:00 Break • 4:00-5:00 Climate and Ecosystems Kenric Osgood, lead 5:00 Adjourn • 7:00 Reception for retiring NOAA Dep. Admin. James R. Mahoney • National Press Club

5. Meeting Agenda (cont.) • Purpose: Program review and priorities • Agenda - Friday • 7:30-8:00 Continental Breakfast • 8:00-10:00 Regional Decision Support Jim Laver, lead • 10:00-10:30 Break • 10:30-11:30 Regional Decision Support (continued) • Additional Topics and Wrap-up • 11:30-12:00 Summary Chet Koblinsky • 12:00-2:00 Working Lunch: Executive Session (Closed) • 2:00 Adjourn

6. Response to March 2005 CWG Recommendations

7. Response to Recommendations • A relevant question was whether or not there would be changes at OMB in response to changes in Congress? No. • Those areas that are still in need of further attention include: • Decision support: water resource and major ecosystem restoration. Not a lot of progress, California RISA activity is still the main link via its CalFed work. Decision support research feedback to guide NOAA R+D decisions. Will be revisited in at Summer Retreat. • Atmospheric composition: Lack of connectivity between this element and modeling strategy across the whole of the program. Still remains an area of concern. Need to evaluate this Session • NACP: Lack of integration in the observing and analysis plans remains a concern.Need to evaluate this Session

8. Response to Recommendations • The discussion that followed Koblinsky’s presentation focused on the overall strategy for the climate program office in the context of the overall vision vis a vis implementation. • The overall strategy for promoting new priorities at the expense of established successful programs was questioned. • Is the present approach undermining the base? • This all depends on whether or not the future requested increases are actually realized. • Recent history and the present Federal deficit would suggest that the requested increases will be hard to come by and that more offsets may be anticipated. • If this comes to pass, the strategy for new initiatives needs much more careful attention. • Otherwise, the implications of this would be that growth in decision support would come from predictions and projections. • This led to a discussion as to whether or not the way to increase the budget is via better links to decision support and better links to constituents.

9. Climate Program Overview

10. NOAA Goals • Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management • Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond • Serve society’s needs for weather and water information • Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation • Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission

11. NOAA Climate GoalUnderstand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond • OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions Climate Forcing Predictions & Projections Climate & Ecosystems Regional Decision Support Observations & Analysis PROGRAMS

12. Program Structure Program Charter • Executive Summary • Program Requirements • Requirement Drivers • Legislation • Executive/NOAA Directives • International agreements) • Mission Requirements • Links to NOAA Strategic Plan • Goal outcomes • Goal performance objectives • Goal strategies • Program Outcomes • Program Roles and Responsibilities • Participating Line Office, staff office and council responsibilities • External Agency/Organization Responsibilities (International Partners) • End User or Beneficiaries of the Program

13. Climate Goal Directives driving the course and priorities of the NOAA Climate Goal

14. NOAA Climate Programs vs. NOAA Line Offices

15. OMB PART • NOAA’s score: Moderately effective • Major findings: The Program is relatively strong and has undertaken steps to improve program management and focus on results. • NOAA Climate coordinates with other federal agencies through the Climate Change Science Program • Deficiencies in the mgmt of NOAA labs activities as identified by the NOAA Research Review Team • Need to better integrate performance into budget decisions • Program has appropriate long-term goals and annual measures which demonstrate progress

16. Congressional And EOP Update

17. Secretary – Carlos M. Guitierrez Deputy Secretary – David A. Sampson UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – Conrad Lautenbacher Assistant Secretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – James R. Mahoney (Ret. 3/31/06) Deputy UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – Jack Kelly AA for Research – Richard Spinrad AA for Weather Service – D.L. Johnson AA for Satellite and Data Information Service – Greg Withee AA for Ocean Service – Jack Dunnigan AA for Fisheries – Bill Hogarth AA for Planning, Programming and Integration – Mary Glackin Commerce

18. OSTP

19. DIRECTOR'S OFFICE John H. Marburger III, Director OSTP, Science Adviser to the President Sharon Hays, Chief of Staff Joan Rolf, Assistant to Director for International Affairs TECHNOLOGY DIVISION Richard Russell, Associate Director for Technology Stanley Sokul, Deputy Associate Director for Technology Kevin Hurst, Senior Policy Analyst (covers climate change technology) SCIENCE DIVISION Associate Director for Science - VACANT Diane Jones (primary Point of Contact for Science) - Deputy Associate Director for Science Teresa Fryberger (primary Point of Contact on climate) - Assistant Director, Environment Rob Dimeo - Assistant Director, Physical Sciences Mark Weiss - Assistant Director, Social and Behavioral Sciences Jon Morse - Senior Policy Analyst Kevin Geiss - Senior Policy Analyst (OSTP anticipates finding replacement in the next few months for David Halpern who covered climate and oceans, including GEOSS, for OSTP) OSTP

20. OMBCommerce Branch Head – Randy Lyons; NOAA Climate and CCSP Analyst – Andrea Petro

21. HR Science

22. HR Appropriations Committee

23. Senate Commerce

24. Senate Appropriations

25. NOAA & CLIMATE RELATED LEGISLATION UNDER CONSIDERATION OR PASSED (February 2006) (bill reference/title/sponsor/date of last action) *HR 50 NOAA Organic Act (Ehlers), May 2005 *HR 1386 National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005 (Hastings), March 2005: Establishes the National Drought Council to develop an action plan *HR 1489 Coastal Ocean Observation System Integration Implementation Act (Gilchrest), May 2005: establish a coastal ocean observation system *HR 1584/S 361 Ocean and Coastal Observation Act (Weldon, Allen, Snowe), July 2005: The Committee on Ocean Policy shall establish and maintain an integrated coastal and ocean observing system. NOAA shall be the lead federal agency in maintaining and operating the system *HR 2995/S 517 Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act (M. Udall, Hutchinson), June 2005: Establishes in Commerce the Weather Modification Advisory and Research Board including representatives from the American Meteorological Society and American Society of Civil Engineers *S 245 Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2005 (Collins), February 2005: NOAA ordered to set up an abrupt climate change research program within OAR *S 342 Climate Stewardship Act of 2005 (McCain), February 2005 *S 786 National Weather Services Duties Act (Santorum), November 2005: Prohibits the National Weather Service from providing a product or service (except for severe weather forecasts and warnings) that is or could be provided by the private sector *S 1281 NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (Hutchinson), SIGNED INTO LAW: Section 306 of S 1281 limits the NASA Administrator’s flexibility to transfer “any NASA earth science mission or Earth observing system to NOAA” until funds to support such a transfer are in the President’s budget request for NOAA. It also specifies that Administrators of both agencies must approve such a transfer. *S 1932 Work, Marriage, and Family Promotion Reconciliation Act of 2005 (Gregg), SIGNED INTO LAW: The Report provides $156 million to “provide for a modern all hazards alert and warning program to provide alerts in response to natural disasters, man-made accidents, and terrorist incidents.” The Republican Policy Committee summary of the Conference Report said that the Commerce Department would administer the program. *National Integrated Drought Information system (NIDIS) Authorization Act, not yet introduced Active Legislation

26. Budget

27. Where we are Now Planning Programming Execution Congress Annual Operating Plan NOAA FY08 Budget Development

28. FY05 Highlights • Congress maintained a steady budget level for Climate and Global Change research • Congress increased the Climate Observations & Services budget by a net $5.4M over FY 2004 • Congress increased the CCRI Budget by $17.1M for ocean observations, carbon cycle, aerosols, and climate modeling efforts • However, Congress decreased all other activities by $11.7M for NOAA’s Climate Reference Network Network, Baseline Observations, and other climate research such as NWS climate services, RISA, & Weather/Climate Research • Climate Program redirected CCRI funding to maintain critical long-term monitoring capabilities.

29. FY06 Enacted • Congress maintained a steady budget level for Climate and Global Change research and a small increase for ARGO • This core capability allows for the infusion of cutting edge climate and global change research from academic and other renowned scientific institutions into NOAA. • After setting aside funding for Climate and Global Change research and ARGO, the remaining funds are $14.0M below the FY 2005 appropriation. • This reduction deeply undercuts the gains made from the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) started in FY 2003. • Congress consolidated budget lines, allowing for more flexibility in determining funding allocations for priority areas.

30. SUMMARY FY 2004 - FY 2006 ENACTED CLIMATE BUDGET

31. FY06 Earmarks

32. FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 (estimate) Climate & Global Change 71 % 70 % 71 % 71 % 48 % 56 % 55 % 48 % COSP Grants Distribution • NOAA has maintained a steady proportion of our appropriation for the external community through the Climate Program Office (formerly Office of Global Programs) • NOAA has kept its promise to put more money into the external community through the Climate Observations & Services Program (COSP) as a result of the CCRI initiative since FY 2003. However, because the appropriation for CCRI and COSP has been significantly decreased, we expect this portion to go down in COSP

33. FY07 Expanding Priorities OSTP Environment Research Initiatives Global Earth Observations “Pilot integrated observing systems, such as those that contribute to natural hazard assessment and disaster warnings.” “Ensure continued coordination and implementation of the US Strategic Plan (for IEOS) and continued strong US leadership in the international community.” Global Climate Change “Implement the 2003 ‘Strategic Plan for the US Climate Change Science Program’ and focus on the topics described in the 2003 ‘US Climate Change technology Program: Research and Current Activities.’” Ocean Observations and Research “Implement activities outlined in the Administration's 2004 US Ocean Action Plan.” Fresh Water Supplies, US and Global “Improve research to understand the processes that control water availability and quality… collect and make available the data needed to ensure an adequate water supply for the future.” FY2007 Administration Research and Development Budget Priorities Release; 8th July 2005

34. FY07 Request • National Integrated Drought Information System +$4M • Coping with Drought: Impacts Research • Improved Climate Predictions +$2M • Explain Climate Conditions to Improve Predictions (Reanalysis) • Integrated Ocean Observation System +$6.1M • Climate Reference Network (CRN) +$1.2M (restores to FY04 level) • Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) +$2.7M (restores to FY04 level)

35. Comparison of NOAA Climate Budget Structure NOAA has been working with OMB and Congressional staff to improve its budget structure and enable NOAA to have more flexibility when executing its budget

36. NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM

37. Climate Goal BudgetBy Climate Program

38. Proposed FY08 Priorities • National Integrated Drought Information System • Drought Internet Portal • Improved Observations • System monitoring • Improved Climate Predictions • Climate Test Bed • Weather Climate Connection • Integrated Ocean Observation System • Climate Forcing • Aerosol Forcing • Carbon Monitoring • Water Vapor Processes

39. Proposed FY09 Themes

40. Trends Bleak Fiscal Climate Growing Commitments Increasing External Demands Expanding Priorities The Risks of Drift

41. NOAA/NASA Research and Operations Transitions

42. A Joint Working Group was (JWG) established December 2005 by Interagency Agreement on Terms of Reference (ToR) ToR states that JWG will report on progress of the following activities by January 31, 2006: Organizational and performance framework for R&O activity Process for transitioning the use of NASA research capabilities to NOAA and to facilitate use of NOAA operational capabilities in support of NASA Near-term opportunities for transitioning capabilities NASA FY2005 Authorization Act directs the establishment of JWG, with status report to Congress by February 15, 2007 Background

43. Approach to Process Identify Opportunities Form Transition Teams to: Evaluate the ability to achieve the transition; Assess what would be required to effect a successful transition; Connect with NOAA and/or NASA budget planning; Report to JWG Opportunity Categories Observing Capability Transition (implementing operational satellite observations to continue measurement streams begun in research programs) Mission Extension: (extending research missions beyond their prime missions when those missions have both research and operational uses) Data Record Development and Stewardship (creation of long-term data records that extend the research data records) Data utilization (acceleration of the operational use of data from research programs) Tools and Standards Transition (development of tools and standards that can be used for both research and operations) Approach to Process

44. Opportunity Categories

45. FY2006 Execution Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Winds, Ocean Color Develop and execute plan for $4M earmark – NOAA team’s for each effort are in place, NASA has been encouraged to participate FY2007 Budgeting Ocean Surface Topography Mission Program funds for ground station development and pre-launch calibration/validation work are in place Links to Ongoing NOAA Budget Execution

46. FY2008 Budgeting Respond to FY2008 Program Decision Memorandum Weather and Water Goal to assess feasibility of Solar Wind BAA proposals NOAA Observing System Council to analyze impact of loss of NASA research capabilities on NOAA operational products and services – recommend research capabilities that require transition to operations Satellite sub-goal to consider additional inter-satellite calibration of instruments and development of improved product suites. Develop recommendation for inclusion in FY08 budget formulation (e.g., NOAA/NIST Initiative) JWG provide input to NOAA Transition Board on JWG-identified transitions Links to NOAA Process

47. FY2009 Planning Identify transition opportunities in April Workshop Provide input to Mission Goals by June 1 for preparation of POPs Provide Transition Plans to Goals by August 31, for preparation of Program Plans Links to NOAA Process

48. Working Schedule 1/06 4/06 5/06 7/06 9/06 11/06 2/07 NASA & NOAA JWG Formed FY-09 Opportunities Selected Transition Teams Formed Transition Teams Develop Plans Transition Plans Completed (Defining steps necessary for successful transitions) Draft Report to Congress (about FY08 opportunities) Final Report to Congress Cross-NOAA Team Re-constituted (for $4M) NOAA FY09 POP Input Submitted JWG First Report JWG Second Report

49. NOAA Climate Program And the US Climate Change Science Program Update

50. Interagency Working Groups Decision Support Program Integration Metrics Leadership CCSP Retreat