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The Green Cockpit

The Green Cockpit. Decision support for realising sustainable public transport. Significant B.V. Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga. EMTA 19 april 2013. About us. Significant Formerly part of Pricewaterhouse Coopers – in 2003 management buy out Currently about 50 researchers and consultants

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The Green Cockpit

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  1. The Green Cockpit Decision support for realising sustainable public transport Significant B.V. Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga EMTA 19 april 2013

  2. About us Significant • Formerly part of Pricewaterhouse Coopers – in 2003 management buy out • Currently about 50 researchers and consultants • Different markets: • Healthcare • Mobility – public transport • Security and Justice • Social affairs • Business management public sector • Paul van Hooff • Managing Consultant System Dynamics • Modeler of Green Cockpit • Model Building • Part-time geography teacher • Koen Idzenga • Managing Consultant Mobility • Public Transport tenders • Client-supplier relationship • Fanatic field hockey player (but low level…)

  3. Background of the Green Cockpit • Originally developed for the Arnhem Nijmegen City Region • To support the tender of the Public Transport concession (10 years contract 2012 - 2022) • Calculates ‘best ratio’ between environmental quality and costs for Public Transport Authority (PTA) • Step by step development with focus on regional issues • How can we translate (political) goals to realistic • requirements for the buses in Arnhem Nijmegen City Region?

  4. Biogas Many questions, opinions and uncertainties Electrical Technical Context Reliability Suitability Emission Costs Availability Future technical develop-ments Diesel Political wishes Budget Hydrogen Future number of passengers Commercial interests of operators Price development Tank to wheel/ well to wheel Functional or technical specifications Tender strategy

  5. The Green Cockpit …… • ...Helps PTAs to get a better understanding of the costs involved • Buses, fuel consumption, infrastructure etc • ...Shows the development in (environmental) costs for each year in each scenario (Total Cost of Ownership - TCO) • ...Enables PTA’s to compare different scenarios of different bus types • ...Can deal with ranges in values in case of uncertainties (sensitivity analysis, what if...) • ...Helps PTAs to optimize their greening transition in time • ...Is the beginning of the discussion about sustainability in public transport (support of your decision).

  6. Some modelling conventions “If a future value of a variable is uncertain, you can decide not to model it, but then you’re sure that the results aren’t correct” “Leaving out a variable that is difficult to estimate, is like giving it the only value that it doesn’t have: zero”.

  7. The Green Cockpit – an overview Feedback & optimization Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Calculation Module (System Dynamics) Characteristics bus fleet Physical quantities Process & stakeholder management and creating support

  8. Settings in the Green Cockpit • Fuel consumption • Range per fuel type • Fuelling or charging time • Reliability Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Time-table Route length Number of routes Route characteristics (city / region) Physical quantities Characteristics bus fleet Number of buses in city and region Prices of buses Maintenance costs Additional infrastructure e.g. charging & filling stations Emission per fuel type (Well to Wheel) such as CO2, NOx and PM10 Shadow prices for each emission type (health, plants and buildings)

  9. Importance of the process • Interests of departments (mobility, environment, economics, finance) • Dealing with lack of reliable data • Interests of operators and vehicle industry • Which data are correct and which are not? → sanity check • Data about (real) fuel consumption • Development of prices • Which risks can a PTA manage and which not? • Fuel prices? • Reliability of techniques • Technical but also a political field

  10. Results

  11. For different buses in the fleet: costs Total costs Maintenance Depreciation Fuel costs

  12. Different environmental outcomes NOx PM10 CO2

  13. Some technical details of Vensim • Software for building System Dynamics Models • Powerful ‘engine’: • checks the dimensional integrity • sensitivity analysis (e.g. Monte Carlo) • Graphical representation of the model • Interface with MS-Excel • Input in Excel: data can be changed for different scenarios • Output in Excel

  14. Any questions?

  15. Contact details Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga paul.van.hooff@significant.nl koen.idzenga@significant.nl +31 6 4403 0083 +31 6 5361 9950 Significant B.V.Thorbeckelaan 913771 ED Barneveld The NetherlandsTelephone: +31 342 40 52 40

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