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SOUTHERN AFRICA : BRIEF FOOD SECURITY OVERVIEW

SOUTHERN AFRICA : BRIEF FOOD SECURITY OVERVIEW. CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONDITIONS.

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SOUTHERN AFRICA : BRIEF FOOD SECURITY OVERVIEW

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  1. SOUTHERN AFRICA : BRIEF FOOD SECURITY OVERVIEW

  2. CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONDITIONS • There are favorable food security conditions across the region due to the average to above-average cereal harvests and these are expected to persist until the start of the lean season (October/November)across most parts of the region • Food supplies in local markets are stable and adequately stocked with staple foods from current harvests and last year’s carry-over stocks, resulting in significant price reductions. • Localized acute food insecurity is being experienced in southern Malawi, the semi-arid districts of southern and central Mozambique, southern and western provinces of Zimbabwe, and most parts of Lesotho and some parts of Angola due to livelihoods shocks that compromise food availability and access. • FEWS Net estimates stressed (IPC phase 2) food security conditions between June – September in presence countries and elsewhere requiring Governments and partners to put in place necessary measures to address the needs of vulnerable populations.

  3. CEREAL HARVEST ESTIMATES 2012/13 Marketing Year Variation in cereal production is expected in all countries in the region depending on the severity of weather hazards experienced during the season and impacts on crop productivity and production. • Overall – regional cereal harvests will be at reduced levels compared to last year, the exception is South Africa and Namibia where harvests are slightly above (3% above). • Above-average production is expected in South Africa, Zambia, and Malawi. However Zambia and Malawi face reduced harvests from last year at 5% and 7% respectively

  4. CEREAL HARVEST ESTIMATES 2012/13 Marketing Year, cont… • Due to the mid-season dry spell in some parts of the country, cereal production in Zimbabwe is estimated 33 percent drop compared to last year and these estimates are 14 percent lower than the five-year average • Reduced harvests (compared to last year) are also expected in Angola (28% down), Lesotho (72% down), Swaziland (9% down), and Botswana (50 % down) • Production levels in Tanzania and Mozambique estimated to be slightly (up to 10%) less or the same as those achieved last year

  5. MAIZE HARVEST ESTIMATES National

  6. MAIZE HARVEST ESTIMATES

  7. MAIZE AVAILABILITY ESTIMATES Regional National

  8. MAIZE AVAILABILITY AS PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS

  9. MAIZE prices in selected markets

  10. SUMMARY - REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2012/13 CONSUMPTION PERIOD • Overall, the southern Africa region is likely to remain largely food secure in the 2012/13 consumption period due to: • Overall average to above average cereal harvests across the region and offloading of carry-over stocks in local and regional markets by surplus producing countries • The projected maize harvests are assessed to be sufficient to meet the region's requirements for the next six months and beyond. • As a result of consecutive years of good harvests, Zambia is currently exporting maize to Zimbabwe and WFP is considering purchasing maize for east Africa • Improved global cereal supply levels could help push down SAFEX prices, dampening current upward trends. SA exports will become less costly hence tempering high food prices in exporting countries

  11. Estimated food security outcomes: April – June 2012

  12. Most likely food security outcomes, July-September 2012

  13. Key Issues to Note • External assistance to ensure access to food for poor households and vulnerable populations is required, especially in: • Malawi ((Lower Shire livelihood zone, Middle Shire livelihood zone and the Lake Chirwa-Phalombe Plain livelihood zone), • Zimbabwe (southern and western districts), and • Most parts of Lesotho • Dissemination of VAA results in mid July will confirm the numbers and extent of required assistance

  14. WFPlatest pipeline report indicates challenges with securing enough resources for operations in the period June to November 2012. Partial pipeline breaks in Madagascar, Malawi, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe will have adverse impact on the targeted populations food security. • Governments and development partners require to identify ways of responding to chronic food insecurity as this is evident in all countries, even those registering above average harvests, like Zambia

  15. FOOD INSECURE POPULATIONS Food Insecure Populations as identified by the country NVACs in annual assessments

  16. FOOD INSECURE POPULATIONS

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