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ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050

ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050 . Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management. Objective and context. Objective of this morning session : Focus on methods used to frame scenarios

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ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050

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  1. ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050 Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight DepartmentADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management

  2. Objective and context • Objective of this morning session : • Focus on methods used to frame scenarios (less on emphasizing the outcome of a given model or approach) Example: ADEME Visions 2030 2050 • Context : work launched by the President of ADEME in 2012 (ADEME CEO F.Loos before the DNTE – National debate leaded in 2013) • A collaborative exercise (a small coordination team and about sixty experts involved) • Visions…and not scenarios (roadmap with political steps…) built on our core skills : renewable energies and energy efficiency. • 4 tools/models used for quantification issues : • Technical : MEDPRO • Electrical system: EOD • Agriculture and land use : Mosut • Macroeconomic evaluation : 3ME

  3. Visions 2030 2050 :A kind of tryptic • A technical description (2012) • A macroeconomicevaluation (2013) • A social translation in the daily life of households (2014)

  4. Two Visions • Same scope… • Energyconsumption: buildings, transportation (but international air and maritime bunkers), agriculture and industry • Renewableenergy production • …yet distinct perspectives • 2030: current trends « + » a significantincrease in energyefficiency and renewables : exploratory , « what if », foresight, positive method • 2050: the 75%-decrease-targetis set,thenachievement conditions are identified : « how » to reachit, backcasting, normative method • At last, thereis an issue to identifie a possible gap between the two perspectives

  5. Methodology • Technical scenarios (model : MEDPRO, MOSUT, EOD) 1. Inventory of renewableresources and energyefficiencypotentialwithsectoral experts 2. Definition of a set of possibilities, with respect to technical and economiccriteria (ROI identified) 3. Identification of values and consistencychecking 4. Energy consumptionand renewableenergy production projections • Economic conditions and macroeconomic impacts (model: THREEME) 1. Identification of necessaryprice-signals 2. Simulation of the macroeconomic impact • Social translation • Identification of type of households to describe • Quantification of all the daily actions in terms of energy and CO2

  6. Summary • Distinct perspectives • 2030: an ambitiousyetrealistic vision • 2050: a 75%-decrease (comparedwith 1990) in GHG emissions • Focus: energy (consumption and production) and GHG emissions • Key-messages • 2030: energyefficiency and the share of renewablescouldincreasesignificantly • 2050: the fourfolddecrease in GHG emissionsisachievablewithefficiency, renwables and some change in our habits and behaviour • Remarks • Sources of figures • 2010: INSEE, CCTN, SOeS, CEREN • 2030 - 2050: ADEME estimates (butexogeneous variables) • Reference years: 2010 forenergy;1990 for GHG emissions

  7. Main results • Energy • GHG emissions • -40% by 2030 • -75% by 2050

  8. Exogeneous variables vs ADEME’sassumptions • Exogeneous variables (*) henceforth « hh » • ADEME’sassumptions • Unit consumption:energyefficiency • Demand: organizationalefficiency, non-disturbing changes in ways of living (ex: miles/year/cap, number of TV sets/hh, etc.)

  9. 2030 - Residential • Urban planning: share of multi-family new buildings increases (from 42% in 2010 to 50%) • Thermal uses • Energy-efficient retrofitting: 0.5 m homes/year • Comfort: unchanged, if not improved (e.g. air-conditioning) • Equipment • Heat-pumps(20% of spaceheatingusefulenergyconsumption), • Thermodynamic water-heaters, solar water heaters(5% of hot water usefulenergyconsumption) • Electricalappliances: • Stock of conventionalappliances (fridge, washing-machine, TV,etc.) as efficient in averagein 2030 as today’smost efficient appliances • Complementaryelectricityconsumption (cell phone, IT’s, etc.) is constant (1,000kWh/year/household)

  10. 2030 – Residential - Results Per-useconsumption Type of deliveredenergy

  11. 2030 – Commercial and public services buildings • Organisation: floorarea/employeeisconstant • Thermal uses • Building stock thermal performance and equipmentsare significantlyimproved • Comfortisincreased (50% of employeework in air-conditioned buildings) • Business-relatedelectricityconsumption • 10% decrease per employee by 2030 comparedwith 2010 • Result: a 16% decrease in final energyconsumption

  12. 2030 – Transportation • Paradigm: constant individualmobility and modal split • Freight: a 20% increase in transported mass (tkm)

  13. 2030 – Transportation • Passenger transportation: emergence of mobility services (account for 10% of intra-city passengerflows ) • Results in terms of sales and stock :

  14. 2030 – Transportation - Results Final energyconsumptionType of energy

  15. 2030 – Industry • Assumption: industrialrecovery • Energy-intensive products: pre-crisis (physical) output quantityisrecovered, if not slighltyincreased • Other industries: growroughlyaccording to GDP growth • Energy-efficiency: 20% in average (lessthan 1%/year)

  16. 2030 – Industry - Results • Recycling(materials as well as heatlosses) takenintoaccount • Result: a 10% decrease in final energy consomption

  17. 2030 – Food, forest and agriculture • No-regret changes of habits • A 2/3 decrease in foodwastages • Current trends are protracted (e.g. decrease in meatconsumption) • Energy efficiency: a 25% decrease in energyconsumption of agriculture buildings, 20% decrease use of syntheticnitrogenfertilizers • Land management : land sealing pace istwo-folddecreased, + 0,2 Mha of forest in 2030 • Results : - 11% in livestockrelated impacts (CH4, N2O), and an lowdecrease in energyconsumption

  18. 2030 – Energy production (1) • Resources: • Solid biomass and methanization are bothsignificantlyincreased • Land use competitionis not exacerbated (3Mtoe of biofuels, compare to 2,4)

  19. 2030 – Energy production (2)Focus on electrical system • Renewable power • Wind: On-shore (34 GW) and off-shore (12 GW) • PV: 33 GW (very close to RTE New mix in terms of installedcapacity but with 20% less on demand) Remark: the loadcurvehourly matches power generation

  20. 2030 – Energy production - Results (3) • Result • Share of renewables: 35% • Share of renewable power: 46%

  21. Evaluation of 2030 Vision

  22. 2050 – An overview • Differenceswith the 2030 scenario • The 75% decrease in GHG emissionsis set as a target • Changes in ways of living allowedwhen convergence of interests • Buildings: energy efficient stock + reinforced densification (stop of urbansprawlingafter 2030, and 50/50 between house • Transportation: mobility services develop (30% of urbanflows) + GasVeh (of which 55% of biomethane) and electricity, 15% less of mobility/pers/year • Food and agriculture: French dietheadstowardsFAO’srecommendations • Tertiary : 20% decrease in surface area per employee • Industry: 2010-2030 trends are protracted • Results: • Final energyconsumptionistwo-folddecreased • 70% of renewables(final energy)

  23. 2050 – Food

  24. 2050 – Transportation

  25. 2050 – Transportation

  26. 2050 – Energy consumption

  27. 2050 – Renewables N.B. concerning power generation, the share of renewable power ranges from 47% to 77%, according to the assumedshare of nuclear power

  28. Macro Economicevaluation ADEME – OFCE - TNO Tools : 3ME, a multisectoralmacroeconomic model (new Keynesian) Method : Define a baseline- reference scenario, consider the technicalassumptions

  29. Energy balance • Signal-price / Carbontax • 325€/tCO2 in 2050 • Total : 750€/tep in 2050 (must becompared to the currentimplicittaxlevel : 243€t/CO2 on gasoline)

  30. Investments

  31. GDP • Jobs

  32. Concludingremarks • Beyondenergy and GHG • NOx, SO2,PM2.5 and COVNM three-folddecreased by 2030 • Likely (yet not quantified) reduction in otherexternatities : • Transportation: noise, road casualties, congestion, health(cycling) • Buildings: thermal comfort • Food: meat-overconsumption-relateddeseases • Economics • An additional 300€/tCO2 price-signal isrequired by 2050 (in ADEME scenario, not in absoluteterms) • Macroeconomic impacts: • Recessionary: increase in energyprices (loss of competitiveness) and decrease in conventionalenergy production • Expansionary: decrease in fossilenergy imports, increase in new business activities (renewables, high-quality building retrofitting) • THREEME-basedmacroeconomic simulations show that the global impact on both GDP and employmentis positive by 2050

  33. Social translation Just released • A description of the daily life and behaviour of 8 families in differentcontext (age, children or not, localization, income…) • 4 pages of narrative description and an energy balance (kWh and CO2) for eachhousehold compatible with the global ADEME vision

  34. Attempt to conclude : Science for energy scenarios ? • Scenario is a way (withdifferentstools) to look forward • And if science is : • Rigorous and checkable method investigation • Open to criticism and discussions • Probably Yes • But if science is : • Reproductible … • Maybe not • Because between two periods : we can see huge changes in knowledge, technologies (V2G, PtG…), values, belief, learning cost curve…

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