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COLA Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting - December 2007

Overview of the COLA Scientific Advisory Committee meeting held in December 2007. Review of scientific activities at COLA, progress since February, and goals for future research. Collaboration with federal agencies and participation in external and internal planning. Notable achievements in 2007.

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COLA Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting - December 2007

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  1. Overview Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting 3 December 2007

  2. SAC membersand agency colleagues - Welcome to !(and thanks for coming a second time in 2007)

  3. COLA Scientific Advisory Committee The SAC reviews and advises on scientific activities at COLA. Current members selected in consultation with the Federal agencies:   G. Branstator NCAR (1999– ) R. Dickinson Georgia Tech (1998– ; chair 2004 –) S. Schubert NASA Goddard (2002 – ) J. Slingo University of Reading (2005 – ) D. Anderson ECMWF (2005 – ) S. Sorooshian UC Irvine (2005 – ) L. Uccellini NOAA NCEP (2007 – ) B. Wang University of Hawaii (2005 – ) Other distinguished colleagues who have served on the COLA SAC: L. Bengtsson Max-Planck-Institute (1998-2001) D. Burridge ECMWF (1994–1999;2001 – 2005) A. Busalacchi NASA Goddard (1994-1997) D. Hartmann University of Washington (1998–2005; chair; 1999–2003 ) A. Leetmaa GFDL (2000 – 2005 ) R. Mechoso UCLA (1994-1998) K. Miyakoda IMGA (Italy) (1994-1997) G. North Texas A&M University (1999 – 2005) Julia Paegle University of Utah (1994-1997) K. Trenberth NCAR (1994-99; chair 1998-99) J. M. Wallace University of Washington (1994-99; chair 1994-97)

  4. Congratulations to Soroosh Sorooshian! Mr. Koïchiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, has awarded this year’s Great Man-Made River International Water Prize to a research team composed of specialists from the Centre for the Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) at the University of Arizona, and the Centre for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California, Irvine. The Prize was awarded on the occasion of the World Science Day for Peace and Development, on 10 November 2007, at the Hungarian Parliament, in Budapest.

  5. Congratulations on the Nobel Peace Prize! Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Editors, Authors, Reviewers COLA scientists and COLA SAC members have made major contributions (the other winner: Al Gore)

  6. SAC Meeting Goals Review COLA progress since February Review 2009-2013 omnibus proposal

  7. Research Objective Explore, Establish and Quantify the Predictability and Prediction of Seasonal to Decadal Variability in a Changing Climate • Use Multiple State-of-the-Art Models • Conduct Innovative Sensitivity and Predictability Experiments • Dual Purpose: Enhance Understanding • Improve Forecasts

  8. Multi-Model with Nation’s ModelsInstitutional Collaborations • Climate Forecast System (CFS; NOAA - Climate Test Bed) • Participation in external and internal CTB planning • Predictability research with NCEP CFS • 8 COLA Technical Reports produced based on CFS • 10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 1 summer intern actively using CFS • Work toward multi-model prediction capability • Community Climate System Model (CCSM; NSF) • Leading effort to correct tropical biases • Adaptation as seasonal predictability research tool • Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) (GEOS; NASA) • New ESMF-based coupled model (GEOS-5) in multi-model ensemble • Utilizing NASA satellite data for predictability and prediction research focused on characterizing role of noise and initialization

  9. Modeling, Data Analysis and Information Theoretic Strategies • Interactive ensemble coupling • Ocean-atmosphere • Land-atmosphere • Regional ocean-atmosphere coupling • First demonstration with GCMs • Optimal persistence patterns • Information theory - unifying LIM, CCA, and predictable component analysis • Hypothesis-driven model development: tropical biases • Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition - Hilbert-Huang Transform to separate signal/noise • GrADS/GDS as data management system

  10. (ISO) Ph.D. Alma Mater (19xx) 0 + collaboration with Kirtman at RSMAS, U. Miami Permanent Staff (Team History) (1983-1993: University of Maryland; 1993-present: IGES) ScientistHighest DegreeYears Scientific Staff J. Shukla Sc.D. MIT (1976); Ph.D. BHU (1971) 24 Pres., IGES (1993-present); Dir. COLA (1993-2004) J. L. Kinter III Ph.D. Princeton (1984) 22 Exec. Dir. COLA (1993-2004); Dir. COLA (2005-present) T. DelSole Ph.D. Harvard (1993) 9 P. A. Dirmeyer Ph.D. Maryland (1992) 16 B. E. Doty B.S. N. Illinois (1978) 23 M. J. Fennessy M.S. SUNY-Albany (1980) 23 B. Huang Ph.D. Maryland (1992) 16 B. P. Kirtman Ph.D. Maryland (1992) 14 V. Krishnamurthy Ph.D. M.I.T. (1985) 24 L. Marx M.S. MIT (1977) 24 V. Misra Ph.D. Florida State (1997) 7 D. A. Paolino M.S. Illinois (1980) 23 E. K. Schneider Ph.D. Harvard (1976) 23 P. Schopf Ph.D. Princeton (1978) 9 D. M. Straus Ph.D. Cornell (1977) 24 Information Systems Staff J. Adams M.S. Washington (1993) 8 C. Steinmetz. Dir. Ph.D. Purdue (1991) 10 T. Wakefield B.S. Maryland (2004) 9 Total Scientist-Years Working Together 298 Your most precious possessions are the people you have working there, and what they carry around in their heads, and their ability to work together. - Robert Reich

  11. Selected Achievements in 2007

  12. Intra-Seasonal Predictability

  13. Boreal Winter Intra-seasonal Predictability: Air-Sea Interaction in NCEP CFS RMSE is generally less in the coupled model. The uncoupled model overestimates precipitation variability. Difference in RMSE calculated over 9 CFS ensemble members & 10 events (1-mon forecasts) in perfect model experiments

  14. Intraseasonal Variability of South Asian Monsoon ENSO Mode 45-day Mode Indian Ocean Dipole Mode 28-day Mode OLR from MSSA

  15. South American Monsoon and ENSO Figure 2 Figure 1

  16. Seasonal Prediction with CCSM Ocean ICs Ocean, Atmosphere and Land ICs

  17. CCSM3.0 Jan 1982 IC CFS Jan 1982 IC

  18. CCSM3.0 Jan 1988 IC CFS Jan 1988 IC

  19. CCSM Re-Forecasts with Land ICs

  20. 1-Season Lead Precip Correlation Reforecasts w/ O, L & A ICs CCSM vs. CMAP JAS 1986-1995 ECMWF vs. GPCP JJA 1981-2005 (Molteni et al. 2007)

  21. CCSM Real-Time Forecast of SSTA along the equator: November 2007 initial conditions CFS

  22. Assessing Error in CFS Ocean ICs Ocean, Atmosphere and Land ICs

  23. Influence of Systematic Error on CFS Forecast Skill NINO3: Warm minus Cold composite CORR. with respect to lead month based on 1st SEOF mode of SST SST anomalies Correlation (Hindcast composite) Forecast lead month Observation CFS long run Correlation between 1st PCs based on observation andhindcasts at different lead times Correlation between 1st PCs based on long run and hindcasts at different lead times • Warm composite (82/83, 86/87, 91/92, 97/98) - Cold composite (84/85, 88/89, 98/99, 99/00) • Dashed lines denote composite for Hindcasts at different lead times

  24. Role of Atmospheric Noise CFS-IE and CCSM-IE (interactive ensemble)

  25. Fixed 1990 GHG Full CCSM COLA CCSM-IE run

  26. ENSO and PDO

  27. ENSO and PDO show a similar impact pattern on US drought/floods (monthly data: 1950-2005)

  28. In-phase of ENSO and PDO favor Great Plains drought/floodOut-of-phase of ENSO and PDO: favor Great Plains normal

  29. Coupled Land-Atmosphere Response

  30. Land-Atmosphere Interactions over the Great Plains • Coupling strength from Koster, Dirmeyer, Guo et al. (2004) showing “hotspots” for land-atmosphere coupling • Estimate of “GLACE diagnostic”* from 12 land surface models (Guo et al. 2007) • COLA GCM (10-year integration with specified observed SST) anomaly correlation of Ts (horizontal scale) and change in correlation when observed vegetation properties are specified (vertical scale; Gao et al. 2007) * Evaporation variability times a land-atmospheric flux connection function based on the tightness of the dependence of surface fluxes on soil moisture

  31. Land-Atmosphere Interactions over the Great Plains • 25-year significant correlations between monthly GOLD-2 root zone soil moisture and recycling ratio (Dirmeyer and Brubaker 2007) • Correlation of precipitation over (35-45°N, 90-100°W) with surface temperature everywhere in 50-year AGCM simulation with prescribed observed SST. Subtropical Pacific SST seems to play an important role in every season except summer • Despite systematically SST differences throughout the year between coupled and uncoupled runs (Misra and Dirmeyer 2007), yet simulations only diverge over the Great Plains from late spring through summer, implicating local feedbacks

  32. Overspecified Prediction Systems

  33. Monsoon rainfall forecasts by IMD and hurricane forecasts by CSUTMP have artificial skill 26-year climatology - used to train 100 random forecasts Choose 10 random “forecasts” most highly correlated with target Stepwise regression to select final forecast “models”

  34. Publications 2006 • 38 refereed papers • 27 new COLA Technical Reports 2007 (incomplete data) • 37 refereed papers (appeared or in press) • (+ 22 in review) • 24 new COLA Technical Reports 2002 • 21 refereed papers • 21 new COLA Technical Reports 2003 • 27 refereed papers • 27 new COLA Technical Reports 2004 • 43 refereed papers • 15 new COLA Technical Reports 2005 • 21 refereed papers • 27 new COLA Technical Reports • 1995-2006: • Productivity doubled • omnibus scientific staff constant 87.4% of all statistics are made up. -- Marge Inoverra

  35. Panels and Working Groups

  36. COLA Leadership - Examples • World Climate Research Programme WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC; Shukla, member) WCRP Modeling Panel (WMP; Shukla, chair) World Climate Modeling Summit (Shukla, chair; Kinter, member) Meeting being planned for May 2008 at ECMWF • Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX) Global Soil Wetness Program (GSWP; Dirmeyer, chair) A program to produce 10-year (1986-1995) global data sets of land surface fluxes, state variables, and related hydrologic quantities www.gewex.org • CLIVAR International Climate of the 20th Century Project (C20C; Kinter, co-chair) A 130-year (1871-2000) retrospective atmospheric simulation program intended to attribute the major climate anomalies of the 20th century www.iges.org/c20c

  37. 2007 COLA Contributions to Agencies’ Missions • NSF AC for Geosciences (Davis, chair; Kinter, member) NSF GeoVision Subcommittee (Brasseur, chair; Kinter, member) Develop a new vision document for the NSF Geosciences in 2010-2015 NSF ATM Computing AC (Kinter, Seidel, co-chairs) Recommend best strategy for ensuring access to adequate high-end computing services for the atmospheric sciences community over the next decade • NSF AC for Cyberinfrastructure (Duderstadt, chair; Kinter, member) TeraGrid SAB (Kinter, chair) Provide scientific guidance to NSF and TeraGrid on how best to enable high-end computing infrastructure suitable for Nation’s research enterprise, particularly in collaboration with other national and international efforts • NOAA Applied Research Centers Council (Kinter, chair) • NOAA Climate Test Bed SAB (Busalacchi, chair; Kinter, member) Provide independent advice on high-priority scientific challenges and coordination with other national programs to accelerate the transition of scientific breakthroughs and new techniques into operational climate prediction at NOAA

  38. David Straus Editor J. Climate Peer-Reviewed Journals Ed Schneider Editor Climate Dynamics Bohua Huang 2007 Editor’s Award J. Climate

  39. Current Graduate Students • D. Achuthavarier (Krishnamurthy) • K. Arsenault (Shukla/Dirmeyer/Houser) • C. Cruz (Klinger) • M. Fan (Schneider) • X. Feng (Houser) • Graduates: A. Bamzai (1997), M. Verona (2002), J. Manganello (2004), W. Anderson (2005), • R. Burgman (2005), Y. Vikhliaev (2005), S. Bates (2006), L. Feudale (2006), K. Pegion (2007) • Y. Jang (Straus) • D. Jin (Kirtman) • N. Jyothi (Kinter/Shukla) • L. Krishnamurthy (Krishnamurthy) • J. Li (Huang) • B. Narapusetty (Kirtman) • X. Pan (Shukla) • E. Swenson (Straus) • T. Yulmaaz (Houser) Education George Mason University (GMU) established (2003) a new Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics in the School of Computational Sciences (SCS). Became Climate Dynamics Department in College of Sciences in 2006. • GMUClimate Dynamics Faculty • Faculty (0.5 FTE): Shukla (chair), Schopf (assoc. dean, COS), DelSole, Houser, Huang, Jin, Klinger, Schneider, Straus, (vacancy) • Lecturers: Dirmeyer, Kinter, Koster, Krishnamurthy

  40. 2002-2007 GMU-CD Ph.D.s Whit Anderson Oceanic Sill - Overflow Systems: Investigation and Simulation with the Poseidon OGCM (post-doctoral associate, NOAA GFDL) Susan Bates The Role of the Annual Cycle in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (post-doctoral associate, University of Washington) Robert Burgman ENSO Decadal Variability in a Tropically-Forced Hybrid Coupled Model (post-doctoral associate; University of Miami) Laura Feudale Extreme Events in Europe and North America During 1950-2003: An Observational and Modeling Study (post-doctoral associate, International Centre for Theoretical Physics) Julia Manganello The Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (post-doctoral associate, COLA) Kathy Pegion Potential Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS (post-doctoral associate, COLA) Mary Ellen Verona Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of 1997-1998 El Niño Yuri Vikhliaev Decadal Extra-Tropical Pacific Variability (post-doctoral associate, NASA GMAO)

  41. 2006-7 Distinguished Lecturers Lennart Bengtsson (U Reading)Tropical Cyclones in a Warmer Climate Antonio Busalacchi (UMCP)Climate and Ecosystem Variability Lisa Goddard (IRI)Towards Predicting the Full Probability Distribution of Seasonal Climate Mike Harrison (Hadley Centre) Development in Africa - the role and improvement of seasonal predictions Don Johnson (NCEP)The Relevance of Entropy Marat Khairoutdinov (SUNY)Super-Parameterization - Cloud-Resolving Model in Climate Simulation David Lary (UMBC) Automation as an Assistant to Discovery Bill Lau (NASA Goddard) Aerosol-monsoon rainfall interaction: the role of the Tibetan Plateau Ruby Leung (PNNL) Regional Climate Modeling: Recent Development and Applications Michele L’Heureux (NCEP)El-Niño/ Southern Oscillation and the Extratropical Zonal-Mean Circulation Jialin Lin (NOAA ESRL)Understanding the Tropical Biases in GCMs Kiku Miyakoda (Princeton) ENSO Oscillation and Global Warming Andrea Molod (MIT) Modeling Surface-Atmosphere Interactions Antonio Navarra (CMCC, Italy)The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change: a New Italian Initiative Yogesh Sud (NASA Goddard)Simulating Aerosol-cloud-radiation Interaction Liqiang Sun (IRI)Climate downscaling: The value added using regional dynamical models Louis Uccellini (NCEP) Review of NCEP Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts Mike Wallace (U Washington) (1) Equatorial stationary waves; (2) storm track variability; (3) blocking & NAO Peter Webster (Georgia Tech)Hurricanes in a warming world: From genesis to revelation Wanru Wu (NCEP)Drought Monitoring based on NLDAS and GFS Song Yang (NCEP) CFS Simulation and prediction of the Asian-Australian and Indo-Pacific climate Jianjun Yin (Princeton) The Role of the Thermohaline Circulation in Past and Future Climate Changes Donglian Yuan (IO, China) Equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the equatorial Indian Ocean Q. C. Zeng (IAP, China) Dust Storms: the Mechanism of Dust Emission and their Predictions Rong-Hua Zhang (UMCP) Mechanisms for Decadal Changes in El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  42. COLA Computing Facility 1.75 M “compute” CPU-hrs ~1 TFLOPS sustained ~75 TB online storage Storage Network (switched 1Gb/s) Storageand Analysis Nodes Compute Cluster Compute Nodes 48 CPUs 176 CPUs 38 CPUs Tape Archival Desktop Network (switched 100Mb/s) Desktops Web Services Network Printing I2 & T1 ~90 GB/mo >1 Gb/s capacity World Wide Web NCAR SCD Community Computing NCAR SCD Climate Simulation Lab NASA Ames Project Columbia NASA Goddard Center for Computation Sciences 500 K CPU-hrs 1,300 K CPU-hrs 1,600 K CPU-hrs 40 K CPU-hrs

  43. GrADS and GDS • GrADS has O(104) users worldwide with O(104)of copies of the S/W downloaded • GrADS figures are frequently found in weather and climate journals, e.g. up to a third of J. Climate graphics • GrADS is used to generate figures on dozens of NOAA, NASA, university and non-US weather and climate data web pages (www.iges.org/grads/gotw.html) • GDS serves thousands of unique users (millions of hits) monthly from NOAA/NOMADS, NASA/LIS, CEOP etc. • COLA GDS (including NCAR dataportal) 2003-2007: • > 100 million hits (80 million data requests) • > 4.5 TB sent • Averaging > 1,200 unique IPs/month

  44. Climate change: impact on economics … What to Wear? Meteorologists Shape Fashion By MICHAEL BARBARO Published: December 2, 2007 In the capricious world of fashion, where hemlines, fabrics and colors fall in and out of favor with breathtaking speed, designers and retailers have always relied on one constant — the orderly changing of the seasons. But now it seems the seasons have become as fickle as fashion. Two consecutive years of volatile weather — last November and this October were the warmest on record for the New York City area, a retail Mecca — have proved disastrous for companies that rely on predictable temperatures to sell cold-weather clothing like sweaters and coats. So the $200 billion American apparel industry, which is filled with esoteric job titles like visual merchandiser and fabric assistant, is adding a more familiar one: weather forecaster. Liz Claiborne, the apparel company, has hired a climatologist from Columbia University to predict weather for its designers to better time the shipments of seasonal garments to retailers. The discount retailer Target has established a “climate team” to provide advice on what kind of apparel to sell throughout the year. More and more, the answer is lighter weight, “seasonless” fabrics. And the manufacturer Weatherproof, which supplies coats to major department stores, has bought what amounts to a $10 million insurance policy against unusually warm weather, apparently a first in the clothing business. (continued)

  45. I hate to admit it, but a man with a big carbon footprint makes me hot. Climate change: impact on popular culture?

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