Land Use, Climate Change and Sustainability Lecture 1

1. Geography 415: Spring 2012 Land Use, Climate Change and SustainabilityLecture 1

2. Office hours: • Note - Scheduling meetings is highly recommended • Dr. Ellicott: 2:00 – 3:00 Tues and Thurs (after class) in either 209 Hartwick or 1119 LeFrak. • Kanna Siripurapu: 12:00 – 2:00 Wednesdays in 2176 LeFrak • To see Evan or Kanna at any other please email one of us.

3. Course Objectives • Provide an understanding of Land Cover - Land Use Change and Climate Change, their causes and impacts, the relationships between them, and the implications for Sustainability • Encourage critical reading – articles, papers, documents • Course Approach – lectures, critical reading, discussion, papers, quizzes, and exams.

4. Grading • Quiz #1 – 10% • Assignment #1 – 20% • Mid-term exam – 20% • Quiz #2 – 10% • Assignment #2 – 20% • Final exam – 20% • Class discussion and participation – X% 70 – 74 = C 75 – 79 = C+ 80 – 84 = B 85 – 89 = B+ 90 – 94 = A 95 – 100 = A+

5. Course Guidelines • Laptops • Cell Phones • Participation • Absence

6. Broad Course Outline • Part 1. Global Megatrends affecting Land Use and Climate Change – quiz & paper • Part 2. Climate Change > mid-term exam • Part 3. Land Use Change > quiz & paper • Part 4. The Sustainability Challenge • Final exam (all class content) • Reading assignments will be given and papers to be read will be posted on Blackboard (ELMS)

9. Please – no “senioritis”

11. Gauging Your Knowledge • Current atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)? a) 292 b) 315 c) 392 • What was the preindustrial concentration? a) 227 b) 278 c) 309 • What does ppm mean anyway? • What ENSO phase are we in? • What is an Order of Magnitude? a) n2 b) b) 10n c) n10 • What is 2σin terms of variation from the mean? a) 99% b) 68% c) 95% • What is our current global population (approximately) ? a) 3 million b) 5 billion c) 7 billion

12. Terms to Know • Albedo • Radiative Forcing • Feedback • Teleconnections • Global Warming Potential • CO2 equivalent • R and R2

13. El Nino Southern Oscillation

14. Headlines • At Last, Nations Agree To Landmark Climate Deal (COP17, Durban) • Mid-Winter 2012 Temperature Update: Heat Records Crushing Cold Records by Over 6 to 1 – Capital Climate • Feeding The World Gets Short Shrift In Climate Change Debate – NPR • Mattel announces sustainable sourcing principles • Geoengineered Food? Climate Fix Could Boost Crop Yields, But With Risks – NPR • Op-Ed: The Verdict Is In On Climate Change – NPR • Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth About Climate Change; Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway

15. Climate Change • What is the cause? • How do we know? • What is the Keeling Curve? • What’s the #1 GHG? • What is global warming potential? • What can we do?

16. Climate Change Definitions • Weather versus Climate? • Weather is dynamic, variable, and difficult to predict (stochastic) • Climate is a function of long term weather means (30 years) • Climate is predictable because it is dependent on features of Earth (latitude, shape, orbit, etc.) • Underlying Climate Variability – various oscillations • Inter-annual Variability (ENSO) • Decadal to Centennial Changes (PDO) • Arctic Oscillation (December 2009 – extreme negative phase) • Anthropogenic ‘Enhanced’ Greenhouse effect (v. natural greenhouse effect) > Global Warming > Climate Change • Causes • Prediction • Impacts and Assessments • Mitigation • Adaptation • Vulnerability and Resilience

17. Climate Change Why the saw tooth pattern?

18. Climate Change

19. LCLUC

20. LCLUC Definitions • Land Cover – what we observe – vegetation, bare soil, buildings… • Land Use – the use to which the land is put – agriculture (mechanized or subsistence), clear cutting, selective logging, re/afforestation, mining, recreation, conservation • A piece of land may have multiple uses at one time • Changes in Land Cover – change in cover type – forest to pasture, cropland to woodland, woodland to suburban, agriculture to urban), change in characteristics (structure, degradation - change in productivity, species composition) • Disturbance - change followed by recovery (fire, logging, wind throw) • Changes in Land Use – intensification, extensification, abandonment • Distinguish between • Natural Changes in Land Cover – ecosystem succession, climate change (long term change, extreme events, climate variability ) • Anthropogenic Changes – human induced changes

30. Figure 20.14

34. Bali

45. Sustainability • Striving for a balance between economics, the environment and equity • Economic growth without environmental degradation • Maintaining the provision of ecosystems goods and services • World Commission on Environment and Development: Brundtland Report (1987)“Our Common Future” • Sustainable development must ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs • Definitions vary on • What is to be sustained (life support systems, natural resources, biodiversity?) • What is to be developed (economy, life expectancy, society)? • The types of links that should hold between entities to be sustained and developed, • The extent of the future envisioned (25 years, forever)?

46. 1999 NRC Report – Our Common Journey • The primary goals of a transition to sustainability over the next two generations should be: • To meet the needs of a much larger but stabilizing human population • To sustain the life support systems of the planet and • To substantially reduce hunger and poverty • Priorities for Research • Developing a research agenda of sustainability science • A research framework that integrates global and local perspectives to shape a ‘place-based’ understanding of the interactions between society and environment….. • Required are significant advances in basic knowledge in the social capacity and technological capabilities, and the political will to turn knowledge and know how into action

48. In 2002, the Journal of Climate published an astonishing proposition: that the great droughts which had devastated the Sahel region of Africa had been caused in part by sulfate pollution in Europe and North America. Our smoke, the paper suggested, was partly responsible for the famines which killed hundreds of thousands of people in the 1970s and 1980s

49. Reading Before Tuesday • Read the 2 Articles Posted on Blackboard • Be prepared to discuss these in class Thurs.