Changing world of work and impact on skills needs

1. Changing world of work and impact on skills needs Dr. Laura BREWER Senior Skills and Employment Specialist, Decent Work Team for Southern and Eastern Africa, International Labour Organization

2. World is changing Global drivers of change Which jobs? Which tasks? Which skills and qualifications?

3. Technological change: • Some 10%-18% jobs may be automated • But many new jobs will be created • And most jobs will undergo fundamental change in job tasks and skills required • Demand for routine and manual tasks is decreasing • Demand for higher-skilled tasks, problem-solving and inter-personal skills is on the rise • Skills to innovate but also to deploy, operate and maintain technologies, i.e. not only university-educated but also TVET-trained people will be needed

4. Globalisation and trade • Technology spillover and redistribution of the division of labour • Servicificationof GSCs • Exporting firms tend to be larger, more productive and employ higher skilled labour • Skills are key for both quantity and quality of export growth and to economic diversification • Skills play a role of a buffer helping to reduce adjustment costs • Coherence between trade and investment policy and skills development Percent of firms identifying an inadequately educated workforce as a major constraint Source: WB Enterprise surveys, available years

5. Work organisation • High performance work practices: more emphasis on core skills and motivation to learn • Non-standard forms of employment rising • Access to training become an issue • Incentives for individual access to training and continued investment of private sector will be needed

6. Climate change / environmental sustainability • 24 million “green jobs” jobs to open up • 6 million jobs lost may be lost mainly in fossil fuel energy generation • 1.2 million jobs impacted by environment • New and emerging skills but most importantly adapting existing qualifications

7. Demographic change • Aging and shrinking labour force • Activation measures and skills recognition • Care economy • Youth employment challenge: translate the demographic dividend into skilled workforce to attract investments and create jobs

8. Labour mobility is growing, likely to intensify • Close to 5 % of all workers are migrant workers and the share is growing by around 10% in last 5 years • Managing “brain drain” and “brain waste” • Validating and recognizing skills

9. World is changing Industry 4.0 Cyber-physical systems • Advanced robotics • 3D printing • IoTs • AI • Cognitive computing • Big data Electronics, IT and automation Electricity and mass production Water/steam power Beginning of 1970s (1969) End of 18th century (1784) Beginning of 19th century (1870) Today (2010s)

10. Demand for higher level skills is growing Source: ILO modelled estimates

11. Implications for skills needs • Quality and Relevance of technical skills • Promote stronger Foundational Skills • Foster core employability skills • Promote entrepreneurial skills • Enhancement of digital skills

12. More information at: www.Ilo.org/skills