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Demographic changes – Impact on the world of work Julien Damon

International Social Security Association World Social Security Forum (Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007). Demographic changes – Impact on the world of work Julien Damon Head of the Departement of Social Affairs Associate Professor - Sciences-Po (Paris). SUMMARY

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Demographic changes – Impact on the world of work Julien Damon

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  1. International Social Security AssociationWorld Social Security Forum (Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007) • Demographic changes – • Impact on the • world of work • Julien Damon • Head of the Departement of Social Affairs • Associate Professor - Sciences-Po (Paris)

  2. SUMMARY • A world with a population… • … still growing, notably in the less developped countries ; • … ageing everywhere, especially in the developped countries,; • … in the course of feminization and urbanization. • Consequently for the world of work : • … more employment injuries and occupational diseases to come ; • … financial and political trade-offs between social risks ; • … new types of global inequality. • Illustration : the Care Drain

  3. The world of work will be a world of Developing Countries World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

  4. World Population Clock 2005 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

  5. An ageing world

  6. The old Europe…

  7. … and the ageing old Europe

  8. Trends in Urbanization, by Region Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

  9. Urbanization : the 2007 tipping point

  10. More and more women in the labour force

  11. But still a very important glass ceiling…

  12. The global mamy boom

  13. A consequence of ageing : which equipments and which benefits to favour?The case of France Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2004.

  14. Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force ParticipationWorldwide, female labor force participation tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004 Djibouti Philippines Turkey Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.

  15. Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force ParticipationBut in the OECD countries fertility rates tend to be higher in countries with higher female labor force participation Source: OECD

  16. Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases2005 Global EstimatesILO World Day for - Safety and Health at Work 2007 • About 2.2 million people die every year from occupational • accidents and disease • • 270 million workers suffer non fatal injuries • • 160 million workers suffer short • or long-term illnesses from work-related causes • Total cost = 4% of the world’s gross domestic product • Yet most accidents are preventable

  17. Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases in France

  18. The new repartition of diseases

  19. After the brain drain, the coming care drainLabour force projection for developed countries with and without migration With migration 100 million Without migration

  20. And not to be forgotten…Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day 2002 Percent Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

  21. Thank you for your attention

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