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Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq

Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq Fall Quarter 2008 Instructor: Bojan Petrovic. Demographic structure:. Shiites 55-60% Sunnis about 15-20% Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20%

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Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq

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  1. Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq Fall Quarter 2008 Instructor: Bojan Petrovic

  2. Demographic structure: • Shiites 55-60% • Sunnis about 15-20% • Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20% • Assyrians, Mandeans, Turkmens, Roma (no more than 3-5%)

  3. Security situation: Main actors • American and coalition troops; • Sunni Arab insurgents; • Shiite militias; • Foreign (including al-Qaeda) insurgency groups; • Criminal gangs (some associated with armed political groups, others acting on their own)

  4. Current security situation: • Overall violence down at least 80 percent; • Ethno-sectarian violence: down by over 90 percent; • Through June, the number of violent civilian deaths has averaged about 700 a month in 2008, a lower rate than in any previous year of the war (with the possible exception of 2003). • U.S. military deaths in Iraq have dropped from about 70 a month in early 2007 to about 25 a month now, and the death rate for the ISF has fallen by half, from 200 a month to about 100.

  5. Two important sources of threat (more recently, before the “surge”): • Al-Qaeda and supporting insurgent groups. • The faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia.

  6. Security situation (problems remain): • Kirkuk

  7. Political situation: • Sectarian central government; • Corruption; • Little influence over regions.

  8. Economy: • Stalled recovery; • Current growth under 5% (moderate given high oil prices); • Dependency on oil exports and international aid; • High unemployment rates.

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