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Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme Associate UNDP Iraq

Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme Associate UNDP Iraq. Contents. Iraq pre 2003 war Status shortly after the war Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing How things stand today. Introduction: First 11 Years.

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Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme Associate UNDP Iraq

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  1. Iraq War Economy • Displacement and Living Conditions • Khalid M. Khalid • Programme Associate • UNDP Iraq

  2. Contents • Iraq pre 2003 war • Status shortly after the war • Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing • How things stand today

  3. Introduction: First 11 Years • Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime rule that started 1968 • Violent changes of regime since 1958 • Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social and economic changes • Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands • Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972

  4. Introduction: First 11 Years • Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenues • Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projects

  5. Introduction: First 11 Years • Revenues financed building strong political base • Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the military • Huge development projects opened opportunities for the business people who had connections with the regime

  6. Introduction: Iraq-Iran War • Foreign currency reserve over $35 Billion • Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditure • Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion • Abandonment of development projects • Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforce • Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of agricultural land to private sector • Infrastructure in need of repair

  7. Introduction: Kuwait War • More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with Iran • Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the country • Severely harmed civilians • Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1 • Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain • Rapid deterioration in the living standards

  8. Part 1: 2003 Change of Regime • “Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least well known humanitarian crisis” • Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees • Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004

  9. Acute Electricity Shortage • 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supply • Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours • One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generators • Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW

  10. Water and Sanitation Problems • 40% of population reported sewage flooding • 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste disposal • 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have stable supply of safe drinking water • Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the most

  11. Economic Hardship • 55% of families have a low economic status • 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods • 57% of population did not have proper employment • 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week • 36% of households could not earn $60 a week

  12. Decline of Education Standards • 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age group 25-34 • 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls • North region which previously was lower than other regions have become the best region in educational levels

  13. Serious Child Malnutrition • 12% of children between six months and five years are underweight • 8% suffer from acute malnutrition • 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition • South regions showed highest levels of malnourished children • 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high • Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic status • Effectiveness of ration card system • Male and female children identical levels

  14. Illness • 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children under one year of age • Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne disease • 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in women • Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iran • Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-49 • Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29

  15. Housing • Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities • Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan • High level of house ownership • High level of crowding, more in rural areas • Crowding related to the economic status of the family

  16. Summary of Living Conditions in 2004 • Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity) • Widespread of long-term economic hardships • Serious child malnutrition • Stalled education achievements • Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employment • Differences among regions: the south worst off

  17. Post-Samarra Iraq • Core of the political crisis • Power sharing • Distribution of National Wealth • Review of the Constitution • Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence in Iraq

  18. New Dimensions in Displacement • Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq: • Displacement of Kurds • Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war • Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardship • Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombing

  19. IDP Numbers: UNHCR • Difficulty in number of IDPs • Most IDPs do not live in camps • Many IDPs do not register • Difficulty to survey displacement areas • Insufficient national capacities • UN IDP figures: • UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005

  20. IDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and Migration • MoDM IDP figures: 999,772 (163,574 families) in November 2007 • 36% of IDPs are in Baghdad • 12%-15% of Baghdad’s population have been displaced

  21. IDPs in Baghdad

  22. IDPs in Baghdad

  23. Ethnicity Distribution in Iraq

  24. IDPs Living Conditions: Shelter • IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levels • IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and Kirkuk • Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter • MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and 12 others in remaining governorates

  25. IDPs Living Conditions: Food • IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rations • Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on the ration card • Few families were issued special ration cards

  26. IDPs Living Conditions: Health • IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPs • Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shape • Percentages of IDPs with medical problems

  27. IDPs Living Conditions: Schooling • Great difficulties in resuming schooling: • Schooling not a priority under displacement conditions • Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation • No school near camp • Children to help with income generation

  28. Displacement of Minorities • Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq • Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attacked • Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing • Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change religion

  29. Displacement: Migration • Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq • Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan • Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatigue • Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven Displaced Iraqis in the Region Syria 1.2 – 1.4 Million Jordan 500,000 – 750,000 Egypt Up to 70,000 Iran 57,000 Lebanon 20,000-40,000 Turkey 10,000 Gulf States 200,000

  30. Displacement: Migration • Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countries • 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007

  31. Displacement: Iraqi Refugees around the world Germany 36,200 UK 22,000 Netherlands 21,800 Sweden 23,600 Australia 11,100 Denmark 9,900 Norway 8,700 US 19,800 Switzerland 5,000 Canada 4,000 Finland 1,600 Italy 1,300 France 1,300 Hungary 1,200 Bulgaria 1,200 Austria 1,200 Greece 820 New Zealand 820 Armenia 460 Romania 450 Ireland 340

  32. Displacement: Migration • Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syria • Iraqis could not work legally in Syria • Growing number of girls and women are forced into sex trade to earn money for living • In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work • Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live out of savings or remittance • Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable due to depletion of resources

  33. Civilian Protection • The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the world • Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as operations by security and military forces • The majority of casualties are innocent civilians

  34. War Related Death • In the aftermath of 2003 invasion: • 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, Lancet: 98,000) • 12% of deaths were children • Orphanage measured 6% than Jordan • The 2006 Lancet report shows: • Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent deaths • 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452) • 800,000 suffered blast wounds • Over 7% of adult male population killed in violence

  35. War Related Death • (Lancet findings continued) • Number of civilians killed by coalition increased

  36. War Related Death • Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006

  37. Bombings • Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)

  38. Brain Slain • Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, political oppression, and economic hardship • After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targeted • Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnapped

  39. Crime: Looting and Kidnapping • Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Baghdad • Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installations • 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museum

  40. Crime: Looting the National Museum

  41. Crime: Looting the National Museum

  42. Crime: Looting and Kidnapping • Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interior • Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the country • Brookings: 40 kidnappings per day • Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05 • Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000

  43. Prisons • Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons • Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with government • Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversight • Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse • Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspection

  44. Through the eyes of Iraqis • Many surveys and assessments conducted since 2004 • Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trends • Difficulty with conducting surveys • Limitations in national capacities • Precarious security situation

  45. Through the eyes of Iraqis • Polls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq • Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) poll • D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today • Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007

  46. Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

  47. Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in your life will be in a year from now? Will things be much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse?

  48. Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: What is the single biggest problem facing your life these days?

  49. Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you think your children will have a better life than you, worse, or about the same?

  50. Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate security situation as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

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