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Armed Conflicts (2002)

Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation: Research and Policy Challenges Alexander Carius, Adelphi Research (Berlin) Wilton Park Environment, Development and Sustainable Peace Finding Paths to Environmental Peacemaking September 16-19, 2004. Armed Conflicts (2002).

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Armed Conflicts (2002)

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  1. Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation: Research and Policy ChallengesAlexander Carius, Adelphi Research (Berlin)Wilton ParkEnvironment, Development and Sustainable PeaceFinding Paths to Environmental PeacemakingSeptember 16-19, 2004

  2. Armed Conflicts (2002) Conflict data from www.prio.no/cwp/armedconflict. Map: Jan Ketil Rød

  3. Characteristics of Armed Conflicts (1946–2002)

  4. Environment & Security in Research and Policy Research • Resource scarcity or abundance as potential sources of conflict – inequality in access, distribution, and wealth • Debate shifted from environment as source of conflict to environmental cooperation as a tool for confidence building Policy • Environment and security debate has gained considerable political attention (WCED, OSCE, UNEP, UNDP, NATO, EU) • However, normative approaches & concepts have rarely led to appropriate and integrated policies and programmes

  5. Resource Scarcity Thesis Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource depletion Resource scarcity Resource competition Acute conflict

  6. Arguments for Scarcity Thesis • Most armed conflicts are associated with natural resources(at least if land rights are included) • Many countries have unsolved territorial boundaries • Territorial disputes can be proxies for disputes about other scarce resources(minerals, sources of energy, food, water, etc.) • Population growth, poverty and youth bulges seem to exacerbate resource conflicts

  7. Coping Capacity for Resource Scarcity Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource scarcity Technological innovation, substitution, market pricing Economic development Democracy & Peace

  8. Resource Abundance Thesis Resource abundance can lead to conflict • Motivation • To gain control of natural resource rents through conflict, acquiring control by force, or securing resources by secession • Financial means • Finance the conflict with natural resource rents • Indirect effects • Abundant natural resources may result in poor governance, slow growth, instability, and inequality – and, in turn, to conflict

  9. Environmental Cooperationas a Tool for Peacemaking • Environmental peacemaking Using cooperative efforts to manage environmental resources as a way to transform insecurities and create more peaceful relations between parties in dispute • Overcoming political tensions through interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation • Creating pathways for dialogue and confidence building where political tensions exist (process facilitation) • Little knowledge about design for peacemaking initiatives or conditions under which they are likely to succeed

  10. Preconditions for Environmental Peacemaking • Institutions are key to environmental peacemaking- Avoid sudden or fundamental institutional changes - Develop long-lasting and flexible institutions • Environmental peacemaking requires facilitation by third parties for communication, dialogue and data sharing • Implementation of programmes, guidelines, rules, norms, conventions of institutions • Cross-sectoral integration in program development at national and global level is important

  11. Constraints for Environmental Peacemaking • Dilemma of securitization • Risk to overburden an already overloaded agenda • Working on true assumptions without clear evidence • Fragmentation of discourse and stakeholders - Narrow interventional approaches - Short term interventions

  12. Role of Donors and Policy Makers • Facilitate cooperation with sustained, long-term assistance for confidence building among parties • Address interdependence between resource and conflict • Recognize impacts of donor activities on these dynamics • Reflect growing importance of regional approaches for confidence building and cooperation • Increase opportunities for policy learning

  13. Communication and policy relevance • Don’t call everything an environmental security problem (clarity of concepts and targets) • Prioritize relevant policies and problems and specify the risks in geographic and sectoral terms • Capitalize on practical tools (PCIA to assess peace and conflict impacts of policies, programmes, projects) • Switch from the normative to the project level (vice versa) • Targeted briefings and policy dialogues • Transfer knowledge and accumulate experience

  14. Thank you for your attention Slides no. 2, 3, and 5-8 adapted from Nils Petter Gleditsch, “A Curse of Natural Resources? Scarcity, Abundance, and Conflict”, presented at the UNEP/DEWA Workshop on ‘Environment, Peace, and Security Initiative’, Nairobi 17 May 2004

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