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Turkey’s Energy Policies Between East and West

Turkey’s Energy Policies Between East and West. Bilkent University A. Necdet PAMİR General Coordinator Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM) February 21, 2006. Percentage of resources in primary energy demand (%) end 2003.

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Turkey’s Energy Policies Between East and West

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  1. Turkey’s Energy Policies Between East and West Bilkent University A. Necdet PAMİR General Coordinator Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM) February 21, 2006

  2. Percentage of resources in primary energy demand (%) end 2003 Reference: BP Statistical World Review of Energy, June 2005

  3. 7 000 7 000 6 000 6 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 4 000 Mtoe Mtoe 3 000 3 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 World Primary Energy Demand Oil Natural gas Coal Other renewables Nuclear power Hydro power Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

  4. Source: International Energy Agency, 2004

  5. Total: 1188,6 billion barrels 120,8 18,4 61 41,1 World Recoverable Oil Reserves (billion barrels) 112,2 733,9 101,2 Reserve/Production: 41 years Source: BP Statistical World Review, June 2005

  6. World Exploration & Production Costs($/barrel) Alaska 5.7 W. Canada Konvns: 9.0 N. Sea 9.85 Kazakhistn 7.0 W. Siberia 7.0 E. Canada 10.0 China (onshore) 8.90 Canada Oil sands 8.41(?) China (offshore) 11.80 Gulf of Mexico 9.0 Algeria 7.0 Mexico 7.2 İran 4.5 Nigeria 5.75 Indonesia 10.5 Iraq 2.5 Venezuella 4.23 (ağır petrol hariç) Brasil 12.50 S. Arabia 4.0 Angola 9.0 S. America (excl. Mek., Ven., Brasil) 5.52 Source: CERA

  7. Total: 179,5 trillion m3 58,51 5,6 7,32 14,2 72,8 14,06 World Recoverable Gas Reserves (trillion cubic meters) 7,1 Kaynak: BP Statistical World Review, Haziran 2005 R/P: 67 years

  8. World Recoverable Coal Reserves (billion tons) Total: 909,6 billion tons 227 60 254,4 296,8 50 19,8 R/P: 164 Homogenous distribution Kaynak: BP Statistical World Review, Haziran 2005

  9. Global Reserve Additions from Discoveries & Global Production In the last decade, discoveries of new fields have replaced only half the oil produced

  10. Inter-Regional Trade in World Fossil-FuelSupply Energy trade between regions more than doubles by 2030, most of it still in the form of oil

  11. Caspian Oil Production to 2010

  12. West Africa Oil Production to 2010 Nijerya Angola

  13. Significance of OPEC and Persian Gulf (2001-2025) (million barrels per day) Source: EIA, May 2004

  14. Importance of the Persian Gulf

  15. Importance of the Persian Gulf

  16. Contribution of Regions to World Oil Supply(million barrels per day)

  17. Major Net Inter-Regional Oil Trade Flows Inter-regional oil trade doubles by 2030, with most of the additional exports coming from the Middle East

  18. Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits” The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade and flows through key maritime and pipeline chokepoints expand

  19. Dünya Ekonomisinde Büyüme

  20. Bölgesel Büyümede Farklılık

  21. Gelişen Asya, Yakıt Talebi ve Emisyonda Sürükleyici

  22. Amount of energy consumed to produce 1 unit of GDP • US: 1,5 • EU: 1 • Russia: 8,5 • China: 6,5

  23. Energy Intensity(Green Paper)

  24. Toplam Enerji Yatırım Gereksinimi (2003-2030) E K P G 2003 – 2030 yılları arasında, küresel enerji yatırımlarının % 65’i elektrik üretimine ayrılacak

  25. Who controls world oil reserves ? Iraq National Oil Companies Concessions Production Sharing Agreements Limited reach/ National Companies

  26. Proven Natural Gas Reserves Gas reserves, concentrated in the Middle East & the transition economies, are equal to 66 years of current production

  27. Who owns the gas reserves ? More than 60 % of world gas reserves are under the control of countries restricting foreign investments Source: BP

  28. Major Net Inter-Regional Gas Trade Flows Inter-regional gas trade triples by 2030, with most new exports coming from the Middle East, Africa and Russia

  29. A Vital Insecurity Issue:Increasing Dependencyof Major Powerson Energy Imports

  30. USA Oil: % 39 N. Gas: % 26 Coal: % 24 EU-15 Oil: % 43 N. Gas: % 23.6 Coal: % 14.8 China Oil: % 24.6 N. Gas: % 2.0 Coal: % 66.5 Asia-Pasific Oil: % 36.5 N. Gas: % 11 Coal: % 43.5 Fossil Fuels Consumption Percentages (%) BP, June 2003

  31. US consumes 25 % of the world total primary energy demand Source: EIA 2005

  32. The US gas supply will increase depending on domestic/unconventional production, Alascan gas production (2016) and LNG

  33. Prof. Michael Klare:“Control over the Persian Gulf translates into control over Europe, Japan and China. It is having our hand on the spigot.”(Thirty Year Itch, Robert Dreyfuss, motherjones.com, March 1, 2003)

  34. Consumption Production Net imports

  35. EU Oil Balance (1980-2030)

  36. Net imports AB30 Production

  37. Billion cubic meters

  38. Afrika

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