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USA Peanut Crop Situation

USA Peanut Crop Situation. R. Scott Tubbs Cropping Systems Agronomist University of Georgia. American Peanut Shellers Association Spring Conference 23 March 2011 Lake Blackshear, Georgia. USA Planted Acreage, 2009 & 2010. SE = 71.3%; V-C = 13.4%; SW = 15.3% of acreage in 2010.

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USA Peanut Crop Situation

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  1. USA Peanut Crop Situation R. Scott Tubbs Cropping Systems Agronomist University of Georgia American Peanut Shellers Association Spring Conference 23 March 2011 Lake Blackshear, Georgia

  2. USA Planted Acreage, 2009 & 2010 SE = 71.3%; V-C = 13.4%; SW = 15.3% of acreage in 2010

  3. Peanut Specialists in Peanut Producing States were asked to respond to the following questions: • What will acreage do in 2011? • What cultivars will be planted? • What will be the major challenges in 2011?

  4. VirginiaDr. Pat Phipps – Virginia Tech • What will acreage do in 2011? • Down from the 18,000 in 2010 • Not sure how far but some good contracts were offered • Major factor was new EPA regulations governing the use of Vapam for CBR and nematode control • What cultivars will be planted? • Bailey, Sugg, Perry, Phillips, CHAMPS (in order from high to low)

  5. VirginiaDr. Pat Phipps – Virginia Tech • What will be major challenges in 2011? • EPA regulations on Vapam use • Loss of Temik

  6. North CarolinaDr. David Jordan – North Carolina State University • What will acreage do in 2011? • Down slightly from 2010…maybe 5%, about 80,000 • What cultivars will be planted? • Vast majority in Virginia types, maybe 5% runner • CHAMPS, Perry, Phillips, NC-V11, some Bailey and Gregory

  7. North CarolinaDr. David Jordan – North Carolina State University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Weed control • Managing CBR due to soybeans in rotation • Fumigant changes • Overall expense of production

  8. South CarolinaDr. Jay Chapin – Clemson University, retired • What will acreage do in 2011? • Flat… about the same as 2010, about 65,000 • What cultivars will be planted? • Virginia: predominantly CHAMPS and NC-V 11, with some Florida Fancy, Bailey, and Perry • Runner: Georgia Greener, if can get seed that will germinate; second choice is Georgia-06G; Florida-07 for high O/L contract premium

  9. South CarolinaDr. Jay Chapin – Clemson University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Timely rain always #1 concern • Resistant pigweed control • Everything else we can handle if we get the rain!

  10. New MexicoDr. Naveen Puppala – New Mexico State University • What will acreage do in 2011? • We are expecting a reduction of 10% but it may be down more than that • What cultivars will be planted? • Mainly Valencia-C, Valencia-A, GenTex-136, GenTex-112, GenTex-118, GenTex-119, and GenTex-122

  11. New MexicoDr. Naveen Puppala – New Mexico State University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Even at $800 - $1,000 per ton, it is difficult to find growers willing to sign a contract • They are anticipating more cotton acreage in New Mexico

  12. OklahomaDr. Chad Godsey – Oklahoma State University • What will acreage do in 2011? • I think our acreage will stay around the 20,000 acre range • Over the past couple of years we have seen some of the “old” peanut ground come back • What cultivars will be planted? • A shift back to Spanish cultivars • I think nearly half of the acres will be Spanish, mainly Tamnut OL06 and AT 98-99-14 • The other half split between Virginia (Jupiter) and Runner (Tamrun OL07 and Red River Runner

  13. OklahomaDr. Chad Godsey – Oklahoma State University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Biggest competition is going to be for cotton acres • Water is not that big of an issue in most of the peanut growing areas • Biggest challenge may be for those old producers that have been out of peanuts for the last 10 years to quickly catch up with what has happened since they last grew the crop • Producers are finally excited again to grow peanuts

  14. TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University • What will acreage do in 2011? • Texas will likely be down in acres in 2011, 10% predicted, but could be higher • What cultivars will be planted? • Runner: Flavorrunner 458 and Tamrun OL07 • Virginia: Gregory and AT07V • Spanish: Olin and Tamnut OL06 • Valencia: Valencia C

  15. TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Major factors in Texas (bet you never heard this before) water and price or price and water • Large percentage of TX acres rotated with cotton and the cotton and peanut price differential will definitely play a part in the decision • Well capacity since over 98% of acres are irrigated. Marginal wells will likely go to cotton

  16. TexasDr. Todd Baughman – Texas A&M University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Finally, we are extremely dry in Texas right now and dry subsoil moisture conditions typically favor cotton planting

  17. MississippiMike Howell – Mississippi State University • What will acreage do in 2011? • MS peanut acreage is expected to decrease • We were at 18,000 acres in 2010 and am estimating 14,000 – 14,500 acres in 2011 • What cultivars will be planted? • Georgia-06G will be on the majority of acres this year • Interest in Florida-07 in southern MS but they are too full season for north MS • Interest in Georgia Greener but will not have many acres due to seed problems

  18. MississippiMike Howell – Mississippi State University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Economics – a few growers booked (contracted) some peanuts but the majority are seeing cotton as a more profitable crop for 2011

  19. FloridaDr. David Wright – University of Florida • What will acreage do in 2011? • Even at $650/ton we are expecting about a 10% reduction in acreage • That would put FL at about 130,000 acres • What cultivars will be planted? • Georgia-06G as the dominant cultivar, followed by Florida-07, Georgia-07W, Tifguard, and AP-4 • Several folks were going to plant Georgia Greener but germination problems changed that

  20. FloridaDr. David Wright – University of Florida • What cultivars will be planted? • Will see some minor acreage of Georgia Green in the Williston area where TSWV is not a problem • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Dry weather early and weed control problems that go along with that and Palmer amaranth • We’ve had a lot of tillage that has already been done with the dry weather • We need to limit tillage to conserve moisture

  21. AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University • What will acreage do in 2011? • Slight decrease in 2011, going from 185,000 in 2010 to around a 10% decrease to 165,000 to 170,000 • The decrease will come mainly from the newer production areas of the state that were predominantly cotton producing areas

  22. AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University • What cultivars will be planted? • Georgia-06G will be planted on the majority of acres followed by Florida-07, Georgia Greener, Georgia-07W, and Tifguard

  23. AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Economics will be a challenge for all producers and an obstacle for some • Some producers contracted at $550/ton • This is a year when they will have to be very mindful of their spending since inputs have been on the rise • For instance, they didn’t even know what seed costs would be

  24. AlabamaKris Balkcom – Auburn University • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Producers have seen what fuel prices have done • A lot of producers are turning their land due to pigweed issues (which increases fuel use) • Some producers are going for thicker cover to help block sunlight, preventing weeds from germinating • This is a concern since this is a La Nina cycle when moisture may be critical and there is a fear of cover crops competing for moisture

  25. GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia • What will acreage do in 2011? • If you asked me early January, I would have said 25-30% • Once $600/ton contract came out, acreage may be down 20% • Could we drop near the 450,000 acre range?

  26. Historical (85-Year) View ofGeorgia Peanut Acreage(1925-2010) *1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres **Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

  27. GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia • What will acreage do in 2011? • If you asked me early January, I would have said 25-30% • Once $600/ton contract came out, acreage may be down 20% • Could we drop near the 450,000 acre range? • Major factor is cotton prices and many acres going to cotton (1.6 million cotton acres in GA in 2011???) • $1.20 cotton = $717 peanut

  28. Georgia Peanut Yields1950 - 2010 Tubbs hired (lbs/A)

  29. Release of GA-06G, FL-07, Tifguard Georgia Peanut Yields1950 - 2010 (lbs/A)

  30. 5-Year Average Yields in Georgia, 1971 - 2010

  31. 10-Year Average Yields in Georgia, 1971 - 2010

  32. Highest Average Yields in Georgia

  33. Highest Average Yields in Georgia

  34. GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia • What cultivars will be planted? • Georgia-06G will be planted on 75-80% of acreage • Georgia Greener and Georgia-07W are very popular but seed supply not sufficient • Tifguard will be in even more demand due to the loss of Temik

  35. GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Will we receive timely rainfall – we could see a higher percentage of peanut acreage under non-irrigated conditions • Nematode control without Temik and insufficient seed supply of Tifguard • Continued control of Palmer amaranth (herbicide resistant pigweed) • Burrower bug – was it a once in a generation problem last year?

  36. Burrower bug nymphs and adults on peanut pod

  37. GeorgiaDr. John Beasley – University of Georgia • What will be major challenges in 2011? • Potential loss of Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (www.georgiaweather.net)

  38. USA Planted Acreage, 2010 **13.7% reduction *SWAG of each specialist

  39. Historical (85-Year) View ofGeorgia Peanut Acreage(1925-2010) *1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres **Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

  40. USA Planted Acreage, 2009-2011? *SWAG of each specialist **13.7% reduction

  41. www.ugapeanuts.com

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