WP 6 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Baltic

1. WP 6Monitoring & Forecasting Center forBaltic Nicolai Kliem Presented by Jun She Danish Meteorological Institute

2. Reminder - Partnership DMI Danish Meteorological Institute SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute MSI Marine Systems Institute BSH Bundesamt für Seeschifffart und Hydrographie

3. Reminder - Partnership WP 6 Baltic Sea MFC (coordination DMI) Development Maintenance R&D Production CalVal BSH DMI FMI SMHI BSH DMI FMI MSI SMHI BSH DMI FMI SMHI BSH DMI FMI SMHI

4. Reminder - Objectives forR&D • Main objective was • Integrate existing Baltic Sea 3D models into one operational forecasting system • Integrate best practice for code for V1 stream 2 • Develop assimilation schemes for Sea Ice, SST & T/S • Choose and calibrate bio-module • Main issues • Combine forces in model code development • Same code, different set-ups

5. R&D : main achievements • Main achievements, model code New updated model code for V1 (stream2) • Code freeze: Sep 2010 • Bugfixing, testing etc • Release: Nov 2010 • Validation simulation for 2007-2008 • Validation report: Feb 2011 • Main achievements, data assimiliation • Data assimilation schemes has been developed and implemented • Operational production V1 will assimilate SST and sea ice concentration • Re-analysis will assimilate T&S

6. Development of data assimilation at DMI Without DA With EnOI Observations Sea surface temperature on April 24, 2005

7. SST: simulation (BSHcmod)‏ SST: satellite (AVHRR)‏ Development of data assimilation at BSH Combination of information via data assimilation (PDAF, SEIK Filter)‏ Improved analyses and forecast of e.g.- SST- Ice cover

8. Status of model code Code revision through Subversion DMI version has formed the base code New features: Generalised representation of hydrostatics and pressure gradient force Dynamic vertical coordinate Short-wave penetration Improved wind stress parameterization Improved submodel coupling interface (e.g. to eco-model) 6-hourly scheduling

9. Reminder - Objectives forDev. & Maintenance • Objectives Implement the Baltic MFC V1 • Steps/issues • Define product standards • Interfaces with TACs and MFCs • Tools for post processing and delivery • Code maintenance • Documentation • Technical and product validation

10. Dev. & Maint. : main achievements • Main achievements are • New model for V1 stream2 • SVN repository for code exchange • Documentation of code and environment on web • Discussed interface with NWS MFC • V1 structure by consortium approach • Main difficulties • Making sure that we are all strict applying same model, same standards etc. • Remaining tasks • Launch of V1 stream2 • Model adjustments for V2

11. Reminder - Objectives forProduction • Objectives for V1 • Real time production by 4 Pus • Min. two PU run with DA SST & ice • Min. two PU run with bio-module • Consolidate into one forecast • Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S) • Objectives for V2 • Multi-model ensemble prediction

12. Production : main achievements • Main achievements are • V0: • Baltic V0 products on ftp & THREDDS servers • User requests handled • V1: • V1 system has been set up • Incidents handled by DMI 24/7-staff • Requests handled by DU (DMI) • All PU has set up their own service desk by email • V1 Remaining objectives • Re-analysis in progress

13. Examples ofProducts • Objectives for V1 • Twice daily 60 hour forecast • Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S)

14. Reminder - Objectives forCal / Val • Objectives • Calibrate bio-module • Validate opr products • Validate re-analysis • Issues • Several PUs to follow same procedure

15. Cal/Val : main achievements • Main achievements • Validation period for 2007-2008 • Simulation done by 3 PUs • Extensive report showing Product Quality • Main difficulties • Lots of data transferred and lots of plots produced. • Remaining tasks • Same task (reduced no of figures) for V2

16. Sea level validation2007-2008 Monthly mean surface current July in 2007

17. Sea level validation: comparison between Pus,2007-2008 RMSD

18. DMI Sea level validation: correlation vs RMSD

19. Stations used for T/S profile validation

20. Examples from validation simulation2007-2008

21. Examples from validation simulation, Arkona Basin, Temperature 2007

22. Examples from validation simulation , Arkona Basin,Salinity 2007

23. Main Scientific Challenges • Scientific Challenges • Improve vertical mixing modelling • Assimilation: T/S profiles, sea ice • Ecomodel Cal/Val • Multi-model ensemble • Optimise ice model

24. FutureChallenges • Technical Challenges • Coordinate data flow among partners • Implement the best practices in a single model • Operational Challenges • Responding on User Requests • Ultimate Challenges • There are already many operational models for the Baltic among MyOcean partners and outside MyOcean. It is important to coordinate MyOcean activities to show the benefit and better quality for all users of MyOcean products.

25. Calendar • Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : • June 2009 : release 0.1 of HBM • January 2010 : first report of 3DVAR • November 2010 : release 1.0 of HBM • February 2011 : model HBM integrated and tested • Future : • (May/)June 2011 : V1 stream2 operational • October : Release 2.0 of HBM • December : Re-analysis in MyOcean catalogue and available for external users

26. 1st reporting period : Budget ~ 2 mn • Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation. • Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation... • We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) !

27. Thank you!