Tim Haughton University of Birmingham Enlargement – Five Years After Conference

1. Preferences, Presidencies and Vulnerabilities:Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic’s Choices for Europe Tim Haughton University of Birmingham Enlargement – Five Years After Conference CEU, Budapest, 8-9 May 2009

2. Why look at NPF in New EU MS? • Most scholarly discussion of NMS has focused on accession and conditionality, but what explains their preferences at the European level as MS? • Feeds into theoretical debates about what drives integration • But also examining the process of NPF in NMS also illuminates the dynamics of domestic politics • inc. power and influence of societal groupings etc. • questions of state capacity • Legacies of communism, post-communist transition and the consequences of the accession process

3. Framework of Preference Formation in the Old Member States (based on Copsey and Haughton, 2009) Key = perceived shortcomings and vulnerability i.e. states integrate to make up for weaknesses

4. Core arguments of my project: • NMS largely conform to this synthetic model, but two factors which need to be brought in: • Capacity/Size of state • Nature of Accession proces Vulnerability c.f. Dependency: • dependency = narrower concept which focuses mostly on economics i.e. dependency can be seen as a sub-set of vulnerability • perceived is central to the concept of vulnerability i.e. it cannot be understood merely by looking at tables of stats

5. 5 Lessons What can we learn from examining SK, SI and CZ? • Accession Process matters • Business matters (but this varies) • Size (perception of) matters • Ideology matters: • morals – internal differences • markets – external battles • Holding EU presidency matters

6. Slovakia under Dzurinda and Fico • Although governments of different ideological hues, ‘continuity rather than change’ on range of policy areas (Bilcik, 2007) e.g. • Euro entry • Further enlargement to Western Balkans • Constitutional/Lisbon Treaties • Milking the EU Cash Cow

7. Nature of Accession explanation? Consequences of accession path: • Desire to catch-up: Slovakia as an ‘obedient dog’ • Debate: who was responsible for no in ’97 • Valence: who is best placed to achieve the shared goal

8. 2002 Election Campaign – Smer YES TO THE EU! BUT NOT WITH BARE BOTTOMS…

9. Trade to GDP ratio and Share of Exports to Rest of EU-25 (selected countries)

10. EU Dependency: Net Recipients and Net Contributors (EU-25) (selected)

11. Dependency: EU as a cash cow • As a relatively poor state, distributive politics = key; ensure flow of funds • Even the nationalists like the EU …… for its moneyat least! ‘We don’t want foreign things and we won’t give you ours’. ‘European funds are ours, OURS!’

12. Powerful societal groups and dependency • Dependency arguments – still require identification of the mechanisms (i.e. how dependency is translated into articulated preferences) • Business lobby • Dzurinda govt’s neo-liberal project became increasingly fuelled by powerful business lobby • Pressure from business continued post June 2006 • Given Slovakia’s small, open and export orientated economy, business pushed for the euro, but simultaneously argued for the continuation of the national veto on taxation

13. Vulnerabilities and Weaknesses in Slovak Republic • Relatively new and poor state • Highly trade dependent • Lack of expertise and experience • Small – lack of clout – on institutional issues became a disinterested player - from ‘field to bench’ (Malova and Bilcik, 2008). = Give us your money and access to market and we’ll keep quiet

14. Czech Choices for Europe • Enlargement/Wider Europe: • consistent support • Liberalization: • largely consistent advocacy, although differences over Services Directive • More/Deeper Europe: • differences between Paroubek and Topolanek

15. Ideology • Klaus – ideological stance • However takes pleasure in saying controversial • Lisbon Treaty • ODS: divided, ideological rooted criticism, but pragmatic wing larger • CSSD: Paroubek rooted support in Social Democratic belief in co-operation

16. EU Presidency role? • Strengthened position of AlexandrVondra (dep PM for European Affairs) • But even Vondra has modified views on Lisbon Treaty • ‘Europe without barriers’ • call for liberalization, but included references to ‘flexicurity’ • How much of a difference if a CSSD-led government? • Some priorities driven by necessity e.g. energy • Ambiguity of meaning of domestic campaign slogan Evrope to osladime • sweetening Europe or giving the Union a hard time?

17. Slovenia: European themes • Consensus c.f. conflict • 1997 agreement during accession • 2007 agreement over preparations for the presidency • Exception = Jelinicic and SNS ‘eurorealist’ • EU Presidency • Most of stated priorities = inherited • Enlargement to Western Balkans – ‘recognition card’ (Klemencic, 2007) • Not messing up = very important priority • Deeper vulnerabilities of SI highlighted by current dispute with Croatia

18. Morals and Markets in SK, SI & CZ • Markets: • Generally consistently pro-market agenda, although Slovenia more moderate stance • Morals: • Internal divisions • Christian Democratic right (SI and SK) vsSoc Dem left

19. Broader reflections/Avenues for future research • For Business? • Slovak case suggests that business has been influential, but perhaps because of weak societal blockages (weak civil soc) • Civil soc and free market critics stronger elsewhere, but also in Slovenia and Czech Rep voice of business forced through more institutional filters • EU Presidency Role? • hinders articulation of more eurosceptic noises in Czech Rep case; • hindered much of a debate in Slovene case?

20. Broader reflections/Avenues for future research (cont.) • Becoming more like older member states? • How much longer will the post-communist experience matter (link to debates on legacies)? • Priority for most member states are EU-funds • support and enthusiasm is contingent on flow of these funds, what happens when some of the NMS become net contributors? • Eco crises – European integration as part of the problem or part of the solution?