What’s FEEM about

2. 1 What’s FEEM about Research Area: Global Challanges Research Area: Sustainable Development Research Area: Istitutions and Markets Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) is a non-profit, non-partisan research institution established to carry out research in the field of sustainable development. Established in 1989, it has since become a leading international research centre, particularly in the field of environmental and resource economics . . FEEM has a wide experience as a leader and partner of complex international research projects and has received funding by the European Commission for over 80 projects.

3. 2 What can we do for this project FEEM can easily contribute to the following WP WP210: Marine transportation and alternative transports (WP210-4: Potential discharges to sea for the future scenarios ) WP220: Marine ecosystems and fisheries (Task 220.5 Economic implications.) WP230: Oil and gas and other mineral resources WP240: Tourism WP310: Economic impact studies WP600: Synthesis and recommendations for sustainable development (Integration and Synthesis)

4. 3 WP210-4 WP210: Marine transportation and alternative transports   FEEM can apply the probabilistic externalities assessment methodology developed under the FP6 project  NEEDS to assess the external cost of oil spills . The transfer to the Arctic environment is really straightforward and can rely upon the results of other WPs)

5. 4 WP230: Oil and gas and other mineral resources FEEM has an extensive expertise on the economics of the international markets for oil and gas. We can integrate the analysis of this WP with an assessment of the implication of the impact of climate change on the access route to Arctic reserves for EU energy security and market integration, both from the strictly economic and the geopolitic point of view, and the trade-off between different energy and environmental policy objectives (e.g increased energy security versus biodiversity protection). E.g. The SECURE project logical framework • Short term vs Long term security • External vs internal energy security • Sectoral analysis and global scenarios Short term unforeseen supply disruptions, price swings, blackouts; Long term : structural supply shortages, cut-off of regional supplies due to long term regional crises, etc. Sectors: • Oil, • Natural gas, • Coal, • Nuclear, • Renewable sources • Electricity • Demand management External energy insecurity: energy imports related elements such as geopolitical issues, international transit, upstream technical issues in non EU countries, etc. Internal energy insecurity: uncertainty related to European energy demand, infrastructure, energy policy orientations and institutional developments. Market risks in the framework of liberalisation, either due to bottlenecks, market power or regulation, etc.

6. 5 WP240: Tourism FEEM can easily integrate the analysis impact of climate change on tourism in the Arctic within the ICES framework- a methodology to deal with tourism and climate change has already developed and applied. Moreover, FEEM can provide an analysis of how changes in tourism pattern s in the Arctic interact with changes in tourism patterns worldwide by means of a specific modelling tool for tourist flows and expenditures that integrates both push and pull effects of world's destinations.

7. 6 WP310: Economic impact studies WP310 in particular is the one in which FEEM models can be applied. It is however crucial to understand how these models can interact with the model already proposed (i.e. MADIAMS-ARCTIC modelling tool) The ICES model can be useful to unravel the economic interconnections among the sectors analysed in the other WP within a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The WITCH model could instead be used to assess the effect of the positive feedback effects of climate change on the Arctic on mitigation policies and costs (albedo reduction , CH4 release from permafrost thawing etc. on the basis of the physical impact assessment results of other WPs. This issue seems very relevant to us, but not touched in the current version of the proposal at least after a very quick view of the document. In theory we believe that, according to what we know already of the MADIAMS model, there should be an innovative stream of research open and to be explored in this project in which we should work on the coupling of multiscale models from top-down CGE models to bottom-up agent based models, with MADIAMS, somehow in the middle, with the capability of taking advantage of large scale signals provided by the FEEM models cited above and integrate also those coming from bottom-up approaches, such as the approach of the paper by Berman et al., attached to this.

8. 7 WP600: Synthesis and recommendations for sustainable development (Integration and Synthesis) Public participation has gained an ever increasing role in the management of natural resources. The culture of managing decision processes through an effective involvements of all the interested actors is thus more and more spreading and finding applications in the real world. On the other hand, only very limited examples are available of the application of participatory techniques, for the deliberation and coordination processes needed within the large consortia established for research activities, such as EU funded integrated projects. The It is unfortunately very common the in 3-4 years project, the level of mutual understanding grows up only very slowly and sometimes substantial misunderstanding, gaps within planned activities, etc. appear evident only during the final year. The CliMares Consortium, since the development of the first ideas about the project proposal has identified the above mentioned risks and set up a strategy for the management of internal communication and deliberation, based on state of the art participatory modelling techniques. .