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Future IPCC scenarios – lessons learned and challenges to scenario building

Future IPCC scenarios – lessons learned and challenges to scenario building. Bastien Girod 1 and Thomas Flüeler 1,2 ETH Zurich, 1 Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Chair of Natural and Social Science Interface; 2 Energy Science Center (ESC), SWITZERLAND. Overview .

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Future IPCC scenarios – lessons learned and challenges to scenario building

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  1. Future IPCC scenarios – lessons learned and challenges to scenario building Bastien Girod1 and Thomas Flüeler1,2 ETH Zurich, 1Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Chair of Natural and Social Science Interface; 2Energy Science Center (ESC), SWITZERLAND

  2. Overview A. Lessons from the past IPCC emission scenarios • Improvements as well as shortcomings • Challenges to be met B. Suggestions to tackle scenario challenges • Formative scenario analysis • Actor and network analysis • Integration of consumption in functional units • Business as Past (instead of Business as Usual, BaU)

  3. Preliminary note • IPCC is at the science-policy interface • Commendable for interdisciplinary and international approach to tackle the eminent “world problem” of climate change • Scenario building passes bridge from science to policy • This contribution is an external appraisal of IPCC • recognizes IPCC’s merits • analyzes its products and process • intends to add to IPCC’s credibility, saliency, legitimacy

  4. A. Lessons from the past IPCC emission scenarios

  5. Analysis of evolution of IPCC scenarios • Document analysis • Official IPCC reports • Previous publications in literature • IPCC review (comments and final draft of SRES) • Comparison to literature • Expert interviews • SRES, IS92, SA90 authors • Publication in Journal for Environmental Science and Policy (2008)

  6. Evolution of the IPCC scenarios Scientific Assessment 1990 [SA90]

  7. Evolution of the IPCC scenarios IPCC Scenarios 1992 [IS92] SA90 (1990)

  8. Evolution of the IPCC scenarios Special Report on Emission Scenarios [SRES] (2000) IS92 (1992) SA90 (1990)

  9. Comparison to storylines from literature Source: Millennium Assessment Report (MA) Raskin et al. (2005)

  10. Scenario titles proposed by authors and reviewers

  11. Description and use of scenario axes Sustainability Globalization

  12. Influence by governments on scenarios structure and description • Direct influence • No intervention scenarios (Terms of Reference) • Merge of the A1G and A1C to A1FI (final plenary) • Upgrade of A1FI & A1T to illustrative scenarios (final plenary) • Indirect influence • Scenario names • China, USA and Saudi Arabia most successful with their requests

  13. Challenges of scenarios construction – lessons from the SRES • Salient description • Line-by-line approval of IPCC SPM required in plenary • Identical description in SPM and main report • Balanced participation • Different interest on approval (publication) of report • Inherent uncertainty of future • Credible storyline construction • Systematic approach (storylines) • Different worldviews (danger of wishful thinking)

  14. B. Suggestions to tackle scenario challenges

  15. Formative scenario analysis • Method • Tool for system analysis in a transdisciplinary setting • Recognition of active and passive variables as basis • Definition of future states for each key variable • Consistency analysis of all future states • Similar to cross-impact-analysis • Improvements • Systematic building of consistent scenarios • Traceability, integrity, consistency of expert judgments (e.g. regarding the virtual elimination of coal in A1T)

  16. Actor and network analysis • Methods • Description of actors, networks and their • influence on (and responsibility for) future GHG emissions • ïnfluence on IPCC • interests, values, perception of causality • Derivation of different types of conflicts • Improvements • Systematic introduction of multiple contributors • Increased legitimacy • Transparency about potential, influence and process • Optimization of mitigation scenarios towards low conflicts

  17. Consideration of consumption patterns • Complement top-down with bottom-up approach • Method: (fu=functional units; P=population) • Improvements: • Description: More meaningful data on future “worlds” • Consistency: High globalization & low GHG emissions: What about mobility, especially air travel?

  18. From BaU (Business as Usual) to BaP (Business as Past)

  19. Thank you for your comments!bastien.girod@env.ethz.chthomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch

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