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Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions Daniel M. Kammen

Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions Daniel M. Kammen Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy Department of Nuclear Engineering University of California, Berkeley

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Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions Daniel M. Kammen

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  1. Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions Daniel M. Kammen Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy Department of Nuclear Engineering University of California, Berkeley Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu APS, UC Berkeley, February 29, 2008

  2. Outline • The most common call for a new energy economy is for diversity • Operationally, what does this mean? • Energy efficiency has been the greatest success to date, more are needed, and fast • Carbon accounting and pricing is essential • Developing nations will be the locus of many of the largest • impacts and opportunities to build the clean-energy • economy, or to exert the most social and environmental • damage • A foundation for a new wave of research and development • requires investment and a outlet for implementation

  3. Sufficient opportunities exist Fastest growth, smallest sectors Fossil Energy Other Energy Wind, Solar & Biofuels MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030 1.6% 8.8% 1.6% Wind & Solar 20.5% 1.6% Biofuels 7.2% 2.2% Solar 8.4% 1.6% Hydro/Geo 1.4% Other 1.7% 12.5% Coal Nuclear Wind Gas Biomass / Other 1.0% 1.3% 7.2% Biofuels Oil Global Energy Supply by Fuel A massive carbon Baseline & inertia

  4. 50% CEC Data Business as Usual 40% AB 32 Scenario 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Calif.: AB 32 Emissions Reductions Required % Change from 1990 levels

  5. The California commitment - scaled to the nation 3.0 Business as usual (EIA) 2.5 Historic U. S. emissions Administration intensity target 2.0 1.5 Kyoto protocol California AB 32, AB1493 & EE 3-05 Scaled from CA to the nation U.S. GHG Emissions (GT C eq.) 1.0 CA targets scaled from 35 to 300 million 0.5 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Climate Stabilization Zone Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,

  6. C3:taking the next step and/or C3 Dynamic  Up-to-dateFlexible  Transparent  Open

  7. Costs of Conserved Energy Potential Electricity Savings from High-Efficiency Case in 2010 (5 Labs study: many authors in this room today)

  8. Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities Vattenfall, 2007

  9. C3/GtT Team • Prof. Dan Kammen, ERG/GSPP/Nuc. Eng -- Advisor • Joe Kantner, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Presentations; Linkages; Solar PV • Ian Hoffman, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Nuclear; Solar Thermal; Wind; Qualitative Indices • Jon Mingle, ERG – Energy Efficiency • Eric Gimon, LBL – Nuclear; Solar Thermal • Joe Levin, GSPP – Nuclear; Integration/Standardization • Anna Motschenbacher, ERG – Presentations; Linkages; Biophysical Feedbacks • Suzie Shin, ERG – Presentations; Integration/Standardization • Jameel Alsalam, GSPP – Solar Thermal • Josiah Johnston, ERG – Integration/Standardization; Wiki/Open Collaboration • Sam Borgeson, ERG/ARCH – Energy Efficiency • Alexia Byrne, ME -- Wind • Ryoichi Komiyama, LBL – LDNE Model • Thomas Goerner, Haas – Solar Thermal • Zack Norwood, ME – Solar Thermal • Kat Saad, CE – Integration/Standardization; Solar PV • Anand Gopal, ERG -- Biomass

  10. Low-carbon technologies as least-cost, fast-deployment, technology options: wind (ptc: US production tax credit)

  11. 80% of rural Nicaragua lacks electricity blueEnergy – an example NGO energy service provider based on the Atlantic Coast

  12. Information Technology Integrated with Solar Technology: Performance Monitoring Enphase Application Servers 00111001 Internet Ethernet 00111001 00111001

  13. Micro-inverters versus traditional designs

  14. TIMELINE: October 23: Berkeley, California, press release October 30: State Attorney General & Treasurer to work for statewide version November 1: US DoE pledges support November 8: Approved by the city council, up for review as a statewide initiative June 2008: operational date Energy Biosciences Institute University of California, Berkeley Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign October 23, 2007 Berkeley Breakthrough on Financing Solar Energy and Energy Efficiency Berkeley, CA – Berkeley is set to become the first city in the nation to allow property owners to pay for energy efficiency improvements and solar system installation as a long-term assessment on their individual property tax bill. This makes energy efficiency + solar PV an investment at $0.0 - $0.10 cents/kWh

  15. Renewable Energy PortfolioStandards (RPS) 29 states + Washington, DC, and counting MN: 10% by 2015 Goal + Xcel mandate of 1,125 MW wind by 2010 VT: RE meets load growth by 2012 ME: 30% by 2000; 10% by 2017 goal - new RE *WA: 15% by 2020 WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal MT: 15% by 2015 MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase RI: 15% by 2020 CT: 10% by 2010 CA: 20% by 2010 IA: 105 MW NY: 24% by 2013 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 IL: 8% by 2013 NV: 20% by 2015 CO: 10% by 2015 PA: 18%¹ by 2020 *MD: 7.5% by 2019 AZ: 15% by 2025 *NM: 10% by 2011 *DE: 10% by 2019 DC: 11% by 2022 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 HI: 20% by 2020 State RPS State Goal * Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables PA: 8% Tier I (renewables) Solar water heating eligible

  16. Solar & Distributed Generation Provisions in RPS Policies WA: double credit for DG NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013 NV: 1% solar by 2015; 2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021 PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020 CA: 3,000 MW or more via SB1 & Million solar roofs CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015 DE: triple credit for solar electric MD: double credit for solar electric DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022 AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025 NM: triple credit for solar electric TX: 500 MW non-wind DG: Distributed Generation Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside

  17. Plug-in Hybrids: Can they move rapidly to scale?

  18. Electricity Demand (additional) to supply a PHEV fleet in CA Lemoine, Farrell & Kammen, Env. Research Letters (2008)

  19. Today’s Biofuel Industry • Feedstocks largely food commodities • Fuels are traditional substances • Success depends on subsidies and mandates • Small, but profitable and growing rapidly Sources: US EIA, BP, RFA

  20. 2007 standard 2020 standard An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be(California Executive Order S-7-01)

  21. Land use, GHG emissions, and ‘carbon debt’ Fargione, et al, Science, Feb 8, 2008

  22. Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya(ARI = acute respiratory infection)Ezzati and Kammen, The Lancet, 2001 All ARI Probability (ARI) ALRI, Lower respiratory Infections only Average Daily Exposure (g / m3)

  23. and 2004 2004 2004 2004 lowest cost option (2004) 2004 2004 Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most economical cooking option Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990 10,000 lowest cost option (1990) 8,000 Monthly Cooking Cost (1994 TSh/month) 6,000 1990 1990 1990 4,000 1990 1990 2,000 0 Charcoal Charcoal Electricity LPG Kerosene (improved) (unimproved) Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473. (1990); R. Ghanadan, unpublished (2004)

  24. Ethanol can Displace Gasoline Consumption in Africa (N. Dargouth and Kammen, in prep.) • Using only post-harvest crop losses as inputs (up to 50 percent of yields), biofuels can play a significant role • Implications for poverty alleviation, job creation, urban health, and foreign currency savings • Metrics for ecological and cultural sustainability must be part of the planning process Source: FAO/IIASA 2002, EIA 2007, ICRISAT 2007

  25. Study reviews: • 13 studies of • job creation • 3 - 5 times • More jobs per dollar invested in the renewables sector than in fossil fuels

  26. http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/eeworkshop/CPUC-new/summit.html

  27. Green Collar Job Creation Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025 plus Federal RPS Other 18 states with an RPS Nevada Illinois Texas New York Pennsylvania California

  28. Green job creation More renewables = more jobs

  29. 若超级大院在能源、用水和垃圾处理方面能够实现自给自足，则中国基础设施和自然资源的需求将大幅降低 If SuperBlocks could be self-sufficient with respect to energy, water and waste, demand on China’s infrastructure and natural resources could be significantly reduced 能源 energy 用水 water 垃圾 waste 生态街区EcoBlock

  30. 全面系统思考Whole Systems Thinking 太阳 风力 电力 电力 电力 食物 残渣 发电厂 城市 饮用水 供应 雨水 紫外线消毒 厌氧 消化池 沉淀池沉淀池 先进的 雨水 处理 人造湿地 化粪池 活机器 绿色废物 反渗透 绿色 污泥 食物残渣 污泥和食物

  31. Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004 Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999

  32. United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy Research and Development Spending • Kammen and Nemet (2005) • “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.

  33. Patents and R&D Funding Correlated • Kammen and Nemet (2005) • “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007

  34. VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

  35. The Cost of Nuclear Power from the U. S. Civilian Reactor Fleet Hultman, Koomey & Kammen (2007) ES&T

  36. http://www.coolcalifornia.org AND http://bie.berkeley.edu CH4 H2S separation, then H2 & elemental sulfur separation

  37. CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Technology (550ppm)

  38. Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases Indirect 56% Direct 44% public trans. airlines Auto services Auto manufacturing other fuels natural gas electricity Gasoline water & sewage Financing public trans. Construction Air travel Other fuels Natural gas cereals Alcohol & tobacco Dairy Gasoline Total Snack food Fruit & veg. Electricity furniture. cleaning supplies. Eating out entertainment. Household equip. Clothing education Meat giving healthcare Transportation Housing Food Goods Services

  39. Energy Biosciences Institute University of California, Berkeley Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

  40. Savings possible equal to total U. S. energy imports Savings: Energy, $, carbon Danish average

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