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Technology in Service of Society

Technology in Service of Society. Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University November 25, 2005. Technology Trends. A Giga-PC in 2000 Billion operations per second, Billion bits of memory Billion bits per second Network bandwidth Less than $2 k A Tera-PC by the year 2015

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Technology in Service of Society

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  1. Technology in Service of Society Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University November 25, 2005

  2. Technology Trends • A Giga-PC in 2000 • Billion operations per second, • Billion bits of memory • Billion bits per second Network bandwidth • Less than $2 k • A Tera-PC by the year 2015 • A Peta-PC by the year 2030

  3. Doubling every 15 months Doubling every 2 years M I P S Exponential Growth Trends in Computer Performance Tera PC 1638400 819200 409600 204800 100G PC 102400 51200 25600 10G PC 12800 6400 3200 1600 GigaPC 800 400 200 100 2014 2015 2016 2018 2017 2019 2020 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

  4. What do we do with all this power? • Social systems not affected: • Food we eat • Clothes we wear • Mating rituals • The computing will transform the way, we • Live • Learn • Work, and • Communicate

  5. Using Technology In Service of Humanity • Helping Aging population • Disaster Rescue • Accident-Avoiding Cruise Control • Access to Information and Digital Libraries • Access to Education • Literacy • Urban/Rural Divide • Access to Healthcare • Lifeline • Emergency Healthcare

  6. US population is aging at an alarming rate. 10% of the population will be over the age of 70 By 2030, it is estimated to be 20% Cost of eldercare has grown dramatically over the last decade Home nursing costs between $30k and $60k annually Explore the use of robots for elder care? 70+ age group is likely to have minor disabilities impacting their quality of life. The three broad categories are Sensory disabilities Cognitive disabilities, and Motor disabilities Helping Aging Population

  7. Role of Technology in Elder Care • Reminding • visit the bathroom, take medicine, drink, or see the doctor • Connecting with caregivers • Use tele-presence technology • Professional caregivers can interact directly with remote patients • Reducing the frequency of doctor visits. • Monitoring the well-being of patients • Emergency conditions can be avoided • e.g. heart failure or high blood sugar levels • Help Move Objects for Arthritic Patients • Manipulating objects around the home such as • Refrigerator • Washing machine, or • Microwave. • Help with Social Functions • Many elderly live alone • Deprived of social contacts

  8. Encouraging Social Activity

  9. Encouraging Social Activity

  10. Disaster sites are often unreachable and too dangerous for human exploration In most cases, rescue workers need to retrieve victims within about 48 hours Pre-Disaster technology alone doesn’t help e.g. In Kobe earthquake (1995, Japan) many structures collapsed though they were believed to be earthquake resistant Robotics and Disaster Rescue

  11. Rescue Robot Ecology: Environment, Platforms, & Role of PeopleRobots of International Rescue System Institute • Information Collection from Above • Robotic Helicopter • Infoballoon • Information Collection on the Rubble • Information Collection in the Rubble • Snake Robot • Wide-Area Information Collection • Drop-in Cell-phone Tower • Database for Rescue Management

  12. Autonomous Cars as Eco-Technology • Unsafe driving conditions • 1 million casualties worldwide every year from road accidents • Over 40,000 in the US alone • Annual repair bill of $55 Billion for cars in the US • Majority of road accidents caused by human errors and reduced visibility • Driver fatigue, drunken driving, speeding • 42% of vehicle crashes due to poor visibility conditions • Traffic jams caused by driver panic or miscalculation • Excessive braking causes stop-and-go traffic • Majority of jams can be avoided if 20% of cars use auto-pilots • Passengers disconcerted by irregular driving • Sudden speeds and stops highly disturbing to passengers • Also leads to high fuel consumption and wearing of vehicle • Underutilization of roads due to huge gaps between vehicles

  13. Accident Avoiding Cruise Control • Collision warning systems • Frontal and sideways collision warnings for buses/trains • Adaptive cruise control systems • Maintain speed, navigate turns, follow vehicles, auto-park, switch lanes • Autonomous driving systems • Autonomous racing vehicles – Sandstorm, Highlander, Stanley • Highway driving for extended time periods – Navlab 11 • Lane keeping and headway maintenance • Obstacle avoidance by swerving and stopping • Path planning systems based on GPS and navigation maps • Close vehicle following on automated highways – platooning

  14. VIDEO This video shows the 5th generation of autonomous vehicle Click here to see the Autonomous Vehicle video (49.0 MB)

  15. Access to Information and Knowledge:Technology to the Rescue • Unequal Access to Libraries at the Bottom of the Pyramid • Annual estimated global spending - $42 Billion • Annual estimated US spending - $12 Billion • Annual estimated spending of Developing Countries – Less than $1 Billion! • Most of it goes to Salaries not Collections • Creating universal digital library containing all the books ever published is feasible today • Non-destructive scanning of books possible since 2000 • Language Divide Problem • Unfortunately most of these books are in English • Not readable by over 80% of the population • Most People cannot read books in other languages • Current translation systems are not yet perfect

  16. The Million Book Digital Library • Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India • So far 400,000 books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India • Content is made freely available around the globe

  17. Cover Page of Sanskrit book Rig-Veda.

  18. Urdu book by Khader Badesh (1919)

  19. Status: The Million Book Digital Library • Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India • So far over books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India • Content is made freely available around the globe

  20. Problems of Educatingthe Youth at Bottom of the Pyramid • In India, 70% of the 20 million children are born in low income rural communities • Of these only 50% pass the national exam at 10th grade • The urban top students, usually get 90% plus marks • The top rural students get 10 to 20% points less depending on the backwardness of the area • As a result, less than 1% of the candidates selected into the elite national programs like IIT or IAS come from low income rural communities • Unless all the urban students are brilliant and rural students second rate, the country is leaving wasting 70% of the national resource of equally gifted youth • Rather than select students based a national rank, we propose that use the local-best rank to identify the gifted students • independent of how their marks compare with marks of the students in other local communities.

  21. Step I: The Literacy Problem • Illiteracy cost around $225 b per year • Over a billion people cannot read or write • Over 2 billion people in the world are functionally illiterate • lack of comprehension of the sentence and the meaning of the words • Children and people who live in villages need extra help to become good readers

  22. Project Listen Reading Tutor • Project Listen’s Reading Tutor is designed to help children improve their reading skills • At their own pace, in their own way. • Installed in several schools • Used by hundreds of children every day • Handles students all the way from pre-school level to grade 5 or beyond. • Developed by Prof. Jack Mostow, Carnegie Mellon University • Using the Reading Tutor a student is twice as effective than the conventional techniques • The Reading Tutor is affordable and the software is free • Uses Sphinx-II speech recognition engine • Computer recognizes what you speak and corrects you • Uses Windows XP on an ordinary PC with 256MB of memory

  23. Reading tutor being used in a class room.

  24. Reading Tutor pilot in Ghana.

  25. Step II: Educating Youth from Low Income Rural Communities • Rural youth cannot successfully compete in National Exams • Urban rich kids are specially trained in coaching centers • Most rural kids can’t afford and/or • Most Solutions not Scalable to Large Number of Students • Quality Teachers not available • Existing Universities unable to introduce new learning models • No Access To Computer Literacy • Can’t commute and can’t afford • Rural Parents do not know options available for their kids • Early Specialization into Math, Physics and Chemistry • leads to narrow uni-dimensional students • One Class Fits All? • Quick Learners and Slow learners • No Incentives for Broad-based Education

  26. Limitations of Using Marks as a Metric of Giftedness • SAT, JEE, IAS all use marks as a measure for selecting the most deserving candidates • Marks are primarily a function of “Time on Task” • If all the candidates had the same training at school and at home then Marks can be seen as a Fair and Equitable method of selection • Marks are a function of • Time on Task • Quality of the Teachers • Education level of the Parents • Ability to Pay for Coaching Classes

  27. Local Best Model • Select Students based on Performance based on Local (County) Ranking • Rather than National Ranking as in SAT Tests • Rich vs. Poor Divide • Urban Vs Rural Divide • Time on Task • Teaching to Test • Tutorial College Syndrome • Learning Vs. Memorizing (Rote Learning) • In the case of unequal training, marks are not a good measure of talent and ability • Residential

  28. Variable Performance within Local Ranking • Mandal (County) Best? • Average Marks by School in Chillakur Mandal of Nellore Dt. • LITTLE ANGEL'S (EM) H S, CHILLAKUR 511 • APSWRS BOYS CHILLAKUR 461 • Z P P HIGH SCHOOL THIKKAVARAM 376 • Z P HIGH SCHOOL, N. RETTAPALLI 362 • Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHILLAKUR 360 • Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHINTAVARAM 360 • Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VALLIPEDU 356 • Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VARAGALI 352 • ZP HIGH SCHOOL KADIVEDU 263

  29. New Rural University in India • Catering primarily to Rural Students • Named Rajiv Gandhi University of Knowledge Technologies • Residential – Top 1% of the graduating class admitted each year • 6500 students admitted in 2008 August • Students selected using the local best model • Admission is by invitation and not by Application • No Entrance Examination. • The program consists of a six year integrated curriculum after 10th grade • leading to a dual degree in IT and a domain specialization. • The program uses the learning-by-doing paradigm • using personalized mentors and intelligent tutoring systems. • Each student is provided a Laptop from the beginning. • Motto: "Learning to learn, Learning to think and Learning to live".

  30. Access to Healthcare • Under 5 Mortality Rate • One out of every 5 children dies before reaching the age of 5 • Underlying causes of many of these deaths • Poor pre-pregnancy health, Inadequate care during pregnancy and delivery, etc… • Currently, village health workers make home visits to provide Neonatal care • As hospitals are not accessible and costly • Scalability and sustainability of current solutions has been a problem • Accessibility to a health worker, identifying and training health workers and providing timely support and medicine

  31. Each year over 100 million infants worldwide need immunizing against six different diseases.

  32. Education and immunization campaigns have reduced child and maternal mortality rates in china

  33. Emergency Scenario in India until 2004 • 300,000 emergencies occur per day (108 M p.a.) • 80% are at the bottom of the pyramid • 80% deaths occur in hospitals in the first hour • 4 M deaths p.a. • Absence of 4 As • Access • Availability • Affectionate Care • Affordability • Satyam Foundation • Establishes a Not-For-Profit Organization (NPO) called EMRI to attack this problem in 2005 • Initial funding of $50 Million

  34. Emergency Management Research Institute (NPO) and Public Private Partnership (PPP) Govt. of Karnataka P Govt. of Tamilnadu Govt. of A.P. Govt. of Gujarat Govt. of Rajasthan Govt. of Goa Govt. of Assam Govt. of MP Govt. of Uttarakhand Partnershipdelivers targetedOutcomes with People, Process and Performance capabilities P + P Poor PregnantPediatrics PassionPatienceProfessionalism • EMRI architecture and performance leads to • the following PPP (Public Private Partnership) framework • 95% of operational expenses by Government (Public) • EMRI to contribute balance 10% of expenses and all costs of Leadership, Innovation, Research & Training, Technology • Management by EMRI to sustain long term performance at International quality and speed

  35. Emergency Response Center • 24X7 Unique Emergency Response Center staffed with trained Communication, Medical and Police personnel

  36. Computer Telephony Integration Call Centers: Voice Loggers GIS / Maps GPS / AVLT Mobile Communication Application software for Sense, Reach and Care ePCR (Electronic Patient Case Record) Form Technology Sense Care Reach prevention

  37. Technology enhanced competitive advantage of EMRI • One Emergency Response Center per State against 6,500 in the USA • Employs latest technology (9-1-1 is a 30+ year-old ) • Call handling , dispatching and ambulance control are under one roof • Availability of doctors and police in the response center • Virtual handholding by doctor/paramedic commences since call is received

  38. Ambulance • Ambulance design based on best of class - Indianized

  39. Kerala Today at EMRI • 9,000 + EMRI Associates • 6,800 + Private Hospitals / Nursing homes • 2,000 Police / Fire Stations • 280 M population covered in 6 States • 6,500 emergencies handled ( 2.4 Million annualized) • 1,140 Ambulances - 6+ trips a day • < 3 minutes Ambulances assigned • < 14 minutes (urban) and < 21 minutes (rural) Ambulances reached • 100% virtual handholding (in ambulance) by EMTs and physicians • 130+ lives were saved daily(45,000+ till now) and 6,370 victims received timely, high-quality pre-hospital care Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Delhi Sikkim Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Assam Nagaland Meghalaya Bihar Manipur Jharkhand West Bengal Mizoram Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Tripura Chattisgarh Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu

  40. Medical Emergencies

  41. Follow-up after 48 hours

  42. Extraordinary Performance from Ordinary People 3 Hour Neonate (Baby Girl) Buried Cyclist– Fell on road divider rod Firing - Between Army Commanders and Naxalites Robbery – Thief requested wife to dial 108 after 10 minutes to take the injured husband to hospital

  43. Extraordinary Performance from Ordinary People Candle Light Delivery 35 Ambulances to Bihar Suicide Attempt Snake Bite Bomb Blasts Ahmedabad

  44. Caring, Valuing and Respecting Life • Humaneness • Humility & • Commitment to serve Leading to Reduction in Poverty, Increase in Quality of Health and Life

  45. What is Stopping Us?: Digital Divide Issues • Connectivity Divide • Access to free Internet for basic services? • Computer Access Divide • Accessibility: Less than 5 minute walk? • Affordability: Costing less than a cup of coffee per day? • Digital Literacy Divide • Language Divide • Literacy Divide • Content Divide • Access to information and knowledge • Access to education and learning • Access to health care • Access to jobs • Access to entertainment

  46. Necessary Conditions for Inclusive Technology • Almost Free Access to Internet • Basic services free • up to 10 email and web exchanges per day • Value added services at affordable rates • access to movies • Clear Value Proposition • To an illiterate person in a village, the need for a PC is not obvious • A TV and/or a telephone represent a better value proposition: a PCtvt, 5 in 1 multi-function information appliance? • Accessible • No more than a 5 minute walk from home? • Affordable • No more than the price of a cup of coffee

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