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Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 ….

Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 …. LAWRIE STANFORD Manager - Information & Analysis November 2004. Question ... number 1. Are we an industry that is basically in net balance over the medium-term? … recognising nevertheless - short-term oversupply,

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Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 ….

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  1. Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 …. LAWRIE STANFORD Manager - Information & Analysis November 2004 Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  2. Question ... number 1 Are we an industry that is basically in net balance over the medium-term? … recognising nevertheless - short-term oversupply, - and potential medium-term undersupply? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  3. Question ... number 2 Is the Australian wine industry in a new era … requiring new approaches to business? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  4. To develop points-of-view on these questions • Recent influences • Where’s the market at? • Demand issues/Supply issues • Future balance scenarios • New era? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  5. Some precedents to the current situation ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  6. Sales slow in 2003-04 … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  7. Big 2004 harvest … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  8. Future demand for winegrapes dampened? <White <Red 2003 survey 2004 survey Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  9. Current market … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  10. Current market … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  11. Lower price-point opportunities in ST ... • Super value category expansion in the US • Back-filling lower price points in the UK • The German opportunity • Scandinavian interest in bag-in-box • Supermarket consolidation • Wine surpluses Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  12. Demand prospects ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  13. Demand prospects ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  14. Domestic vs Export ... Exports Domestic sales Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  15. Overseas market prospects ... MARKETGROWTH PROSPECT United States Significant United Kingdom Significant Canada Strong Germany Strong Sweden Good Ireland Good Japan Good Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  16. Supply ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  17. Precedents to planting, 2004 survey … <Red White> Warm Inland ‘Cool climate’ Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  18. Variety demand 2009, warm inland … ? ? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  19. Variety demand 2009, ‘cool climate’ … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  20. New planting on-stream … CC Reds WI Reds CC Whites WI Whites Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  21. Balance scenarios ... Annual growth; 20%, 1%, 2%, 2%, 3%, 3% Annual growth; 6%, 16%, 10%, 11%, 13%, 10% Annual growth; 11%, 7%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% Annual growth; 9%, 8%, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3% Growth; 20% … marginally over-supplied ST, marginally under-supplied MT … it won’t happen!!! Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  22. A new era? Stocks-sales gap Stocks-to-sales ratio Winegrape price Domestic phase Growth into export markets New phase? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  23. Summary ... • A new operating environment? • An industry in balance? • Short-term challenges continue • High-price ‘cool climate’ fruit struggling • Lower-cost warm inland fruit sought • but at a price • Future shortages? Future strategies? • depending on your point-of-view about demand Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation

  24. WINEFACTS S t a t i s t i c s Create your own reports or access statistical tables First point of contact for wine industry data Fee or free products and services On-line - at - www.awbc.com.au

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