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Trends in Age Structure and the ‘Demographic Dividend’: Implications for Thailand and Indonesia

Trends in Age Structure and the ‘Demographic Dividend’: Implications for Thailand and Indonesia. Slow growth in numbers of junior high school age youth for Thailand and Indonesia resulting from declining fertility.

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Trends in Age Structure and the ‘Demographic Dividend’: Implications for Thailand and Indonesia

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  1. Trends in Age Structure and the ‘Demographic Dividend’: Implications for Thailand and Indonesia • Slow growth in numbers of junior high school age youth for Thailand and Indonesia resulting from declining fertility. • By contrast, Pakistan’s number of high school age youth will continue to grow rapidly. • Implications for educational planning • Need to increase enrollment ratios and upgrade quality of new labour force entrants.

  2. Trends in Numbers Aged 10-14, 1980-2020 Index: 1980 = 100 Source: United Nations, 2001, medium projections

  3. Importance of Lower Secondary Education • The level of basic education all children should be required to complete. • Without completing this level, both the economy and individuals are disadvantaged. • A bridge between primary education and upper secondary and higher levels.

  4. Trends in Expansion of Lower Secondary Education up to 1990: Thailand and Indonesia • Both were lagging other comparable countries in the 1980s. • This lag implied serious inequities in access to education in both countries • In the 1970s and 1980s, Indonesia made greater gains than Thailand (though only up to 1986). • Thailand – noticeable “undercutting” of secondary education. • Share of workforce with more than primary education very low in both countries.

  5. Thailand and Indonesia: Trends in Gross Enrollment Ratios at Various Levels of Education, 1960-1990 Source: Thailand: Tunsiri (1994: Table 1.2); calculations from ONEC (1986). Indonesia: Ministry of Education various years.

  6. Shares of Work Force with Primary Education or Less, Selected Asian Countries, 1995 Source: Okunishi (2001: Table 12.4). For Malaysia, Yearbook of Statistics (1998: Table 9.5), for China, 2000 Population Census, for the Philippines, 1995 Population Census. For the Philippines, figures refer to all adult population aged 15+, not the work force.

  7. The Planning Response • Thailand • Drastic measures introduced in 1990 • Required upgrading of teaching force • Indonesia • 1989 – Announced goal of 9 years’ compulsory education

  8. Achievements Through the 1990s • Thailand – dramatic increase in transition rates to lower secondary school. • Indonesia – transition rates actually dropped in early 1990s. • Thailand passed Indonesia in lower secondary school enrollment ratios in 1993, and reached 80% by 1997.

  9. Thailand and Indonesia: Transition Rates for Primary 6 Graduates to Secondary 1 Enrollment, 1988-1999 Source: Thailand: Tunsiri (1994: Table 6.2); Office of the National Education Commission (2001: Table 5); Office of the National Education Commission (2001b: 106). Indonesia: calculated from Ministry of National Education (2001: Table G).

  10. Thailand and Indonesia: Trend in Gross Enrollment Ratios at Lower Secondary Education, 1990-2000 Source: Thailand: 1994-6: Khoman (2000: Table 6). 1997-99: Office of the National Education Commission (2001: Table 4); calculated from ONEC, various years. Indonesia: Jones and Hagul (2001: Figure 1).

  11. Thailand and Indonesia: School Attendance Rates, Ages 12-14 and 15-17, 1990-2000 Source: Calculated from Population Census reports for both countries, 2000. Figure for Indonesia calculated from Census data tapes.

  12. Impact of Demographic Inertia on Labour Force • ‘Demographic inertia’ means the labour force in both countries will remain poorly educated for some time. • Thailand – by 2010 nearly two-thirds of the workforce will still have only primary school level education. • Big differences in education of older and younger workers.

  13. Effect of Economic Crisis • School enrollments held up better than feared. • Social safety nets and other factors. • The move towards universal 9 – years’ education has slowed. • Supply and demand aspects.

  14. Issues Arising About the Utility of Education and Appropriate Policies for Expanding Education • Quality of education • Supply or demand lacking? • Equity of access issues • How much education should be made compulsory? • Ways of raising the educational level of those no longer in school

  15. New Developments • Passing of 1999 National Education Act in Thailand. • New funding arrangements for education in Indonesia • Immediate Challenges • Find best policy mix to enable lower secondary education of reasonable quality to be made more widely available to poorer and more isolated populations. • Find ways of providing basic education to the adult population who missed out earlier.

  16. Conclusions • “Demographic dividend” has helped Thailand and Indonesia meet their educational goals. • But they are still well short of reaching them, especially when quality of education is considered. • Need for bigger educational budgets, and fresh approaches

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