Progress report: FREP routine and intensive protocols for the FRPA timber value in partial cuts

1. Progress report: FREP routine and intensive protocols for the FRPA timber value in partial cuts Patrick Martin February 26, 2007

2. Outline Sample 5 • Background • Protocols • Intensive • Routine • Paths not taken • Next steps

3. Background • Are the objectives for FRPA values being achieved? • FRPA timber value in partially harvested areas Evaluation question: • To what degree are stand conditions in partially harvested areas consistent with the FRPA timber objective to “maintain or enhance an economically valuable supply of commercial timber”?

4. Background “to maintain or enhance an economically valuable supply of commercial timber” • Timber volume (m3/ha) • Timber value ($/ha) Classic approach • Goal/objective • Critical factors • Indicators • Benchmarks • Judgements

5. Intensive - method Sample 21 • Statistical sample • Population: areas part-cut 2000-2002 • 25 sample points • Measure stumps and trees • Compile variables that indicate status of timber objective • Judge how consistent with FRPA timber objective

7. Intensive results: Stocking Indicator #1: • Stocking level • Well-spaced trees per hectare Rationale: • Must be fully stocked to capture site’s growth potential Observed level: • Mean of 1055 ws/ha Benchmark: • 700 ws/ha Judgement: • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

8. Intensive results: Dead or down timber Indicator #2: • m3/ha merch dead or down Rationale: • Volume and value reduced by unsalvaged-unrecovered timber

9. Intensive results: Dead or down timber Observed level: • Mean of 12 m3/ha merch dead or down timber Benchmark: • 40-80 m3/ha Judgement: • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

10. Intensive results: Non-Pl harvested Indicator #4: • m3/ha non-pine cut Rationale: • With MPB outbreak, during part-cut, objective maximized by logging all the pine and saving all the non-pine

11. Intensive results: Non-pine harvested Observed level: • Mean of 125 m3/ha non-pine cut Benchmark: • 80 m3/ha Judgement: • Not consistent with government’s objectives for timber

12. Results: All indicators

13. Routine evaluation protocol • Tried this: • Assess at sample point • Classify into 1 of 7 condition classes • Cross-reference for each class that interprets the degree of consistency: High, Medium, or Low • Result: • 22 sample points High; 3 sample points Medium • Routine protocol: • Needs much more work • Whole block (or SU), not one point • Use the concepts from the intensive

14. Paths not taken • Forest-level perspective • Conflicts among indicators • Composite score • Explanatory data • Trade-offs during the evaluation • Formal team • Conclusion for a block

15. Next steps Report • 19 recommendations • Comments, finalize, post Presentations • Series of presentations and review sessions Procedures • FREP will refine and test procedures next year

16. Sample 9 END

18. Intensive results: Stocking Indicator: • Stocking level • DFP Rationale: • Must be fully stocked to capture site’s growth potential Observed level: • Mean of 0.08 Benchmark: • 0.2 Judgement: • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

19. Intensive results: Poor quality trees Indicator: • m2/ha overstory trees classed as poor timber quality • ?? metric for understory Rationale: • Growing space occupied by poor trees reduces volume and value production by good trees

20. Intensive results: poor quality trees Observed level: • 1 m2/ha poor Benchmark: • 5-10 m2/ha? Judgement: • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

21. Intensive results: poor quality trees Indicator: • Abundant, taller poor trees Rationale: • In the US, abundant taller poor trees out-compete good trees and capture growth potential Observed level Benchmark: ??? Judgement: • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

22. Coastal, Cw50Hw50, Extract all Cw, Cw twice value of Hw Intensive results: Value-volume removal Indicator: • % Value-volume % removal Rationale: • Reduced value growth if high value component removed and low value component retained Observed level Benchmark Judgement • Consistent with government’s objectives for timber

23. Results: Forecasts • PrognosisBC volume predictions • Scenarios: • Current • Clear-cut • No harvest • Beetle kill • With, and without, harvested volume added on

24. Results: Forecasts • Compare current state to: • Clearcut • No harvest • Differences in volume over time

25. Results: Forecasts • For next 50 years, the observed partial-cut will provide: • Less standing volume than the no harvest but more than the clearcut • Slightly more cumulative volume than the no harvest and the clearcut • Over the long-term, most stands will grow less than they would as clear-cuts • Judged consistent with government’s objectives for timber

26. Results: Overstory factors Rapid, qualitative assessment of 8 factors that could impact achievement of the FRPA timber-goal • Notable concerns: • #4: Growth potential of retained trees • #5: Species diversity • #1: Windthrow risk • #7: Cutting trees not threatened

27. Results: Understory factors Rapid, qualitative assessment of 9 factors that could impact achievement of the FRPA timber-goal • Notable concerns: • #11: Probability of add’l regen • #12: Species diversity • #18: Poor interfering with good trees

28. Results: Routine – condition classes • Routine evaluation procedure • Classifies sample point into 1 of 7 condition classes • Cross-reference for each class that interprets the degree of consistency: High, Medium, or Low • Result: • 22 sample points High • 3 sample points Medium