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Donors go back home: New financing possibilities and changing aid relations in Zambia. EADI 2011 York 19-22 September 2001 Peter Kragelund. Literature on NTSA hints at: Erosion of traditional partners’ power base
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Donors go back home:New financing possibilities and changing aid relations in Zambia EADI 2011York 19-22 September 2001 Peter Kragelund
Literature on NTSA hints at: Erosion of traditional partners’ power base Increased policy autonomy for African governments to define and implement own policies Aim: scrutinise how the rejuvenation of NTSA affects Zambia’s aid relations Argument: Aid relations change. Slowly, incremental and episodic NTSA matter, but long-term economic growth, booming commodity prices and improved creditworthiness matter more Aim and main argument
Examine total flows of finance rather than only focus on flows comparable to ODA Aid from NTSA resembles DAC aid 30 years ago Many NTSA now provide aid to African economies but none is comparable to China Stylised facts about non traditional state actors (NTSA) in Africa
Policy autonomy defined by: Economic, ideological, political and institutional conditions Changes in these conditions affect policy autonomy changes in power relations btw: Internal and external interest groups & sectoral interests Changes in policy autonomy
70s: copper prices ⇩ Most indebted country relative to GDP (1984) Close connection to IFIs 1991: Multiparty election Honeymoon → aid dependency⇧ HIPC / PRSP →donors controlled more, not less of the policy agenda (W)HIP + JASZ: harmonisation among donors ➪ policy autonomy ⇩ From ownership to donorship in Zambia
Signs of change I • National Development Plan ‘manages and harmonises arrangements with donors’ • FNDP (2006-2010): • Grossly underfinanced • Wish list for the donors • Lack of human & fin. capacity to implement plan
SNDP: Written without (direct) involvement of donors Role of aid in budget⇩ 53% (2001) ➪ 25% (2008) ➪ 8% (2011) SNDP highly underfinanced Increased mobilisation of own resources Donors withdraw funds (embezzlement) MoH: 2 donors withheld US$ 33 mn Global Fund: US$ 137 mn Decision not to enforce verdict against Chiluba Signs of change II
‘If somebody is fed up with us, they should pack their bags and go’R. Banda ‘Stop treating Zambia as if it is still a colony’G. Kunda Signs of change III: Pack your bags and go back home
Historically important Tazara, Ministry of Defence, Mulungushi textile mill, Chingola maize mill, roads… Grants worth: US$7.2 mn (2006), US$6.2 mn (2008) + loans… Still small compared to TD…, but Mobile hospitals (US$ 53 mn) Settled at highest political level (no involvement of MoH) US$ 1 bn concessional loan ‘to ease budgetary constraints’ 40% of Zambia’s total debt stock! Chinese aid to Zambia: altering the power relations in the future?
India: Few small grants (medicine, agricultural equipment, food relief…) Credit lines⇧ + FDI⇧ →visibility⇧ →perceived importance⇧ Brazil: ÷ Grants & loans, but co-financed TA Role model for Zambia (economic growth and poverty alleviation) South Africa: Development projects on ad hoc basis Indian, Brazilian and South African aid to Zambia: too small to affect aid relations
Outburst relate to domestic politics In Zambia & in donor countries NTSD do affect aid relations Aid money is still small, but increasing Allows the GRZ to finance parts of the SNDP that TDs are not willing to finance Broaden development experiences But availability of internal resources and new lending possibilities are also of huge importance Conclusions