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COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session --

COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session -- Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis, Michael Buchhold , Andreas Röpnack Deutscher Wetterdienst , DWD. Outline. operational set up forecast products verification results new developments current research future plans.

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COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session --

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  1. COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session -- Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis, Michael Buchhold, Andreas Röpnack DeutscherWetterdienst, DWD COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  2. Outline • operational set up • forecast products • verification results • new developments • current research • future plans STATUS DEVELOPMENTS & PLANS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  3. Operational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPS STATUS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  4. operational set-up: • 20 members • gridsize: 2.8 km convection-permitting • lead time: 0-27hours, 8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC) model domain

  5. The 20 members of COSMO-DE-EPS 1 2 3 4 5 IFS GME GFS BC-EPS GSM COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  6. Generation of EPS members BC-EPS for boundary and initial perturbations COSMO-DE-EPS 2.8km COSMO 7km run at ECMWF astime critical application BC-EPS GME, IFS, GFS, GSM COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  7. Forecast products STATUS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  8. Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testingmode) • type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  9. Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testingmode) • type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables • variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column) COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  10. Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testingmode) • type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables • variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column) • temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):1hour, 6 and 12 hours • spatial reference 1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only) COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  11. Verification of operational forecasts EPS not calibrated or post-processed observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP STATUS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  12. BrierSkill Score (reference: deterministicrunof COSMO-DE) hourlyprecipitation winter 11/12 summer 11 winter 12/13 summer 12 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  13. ROC area hourlyprecipitation summer 11 winter 11/12 summer 12 winter 12/13 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  14. Reliability hourlyprecipitation summer 11 winter 11/12 summer 12 winter 12/13 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  15. Rank histogramm hourlyprecipitation summer 11 winter 11/12 summer 12 winter 12/13 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  16. rank histogram 2m temperature wind gusts COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  17. New developments DEVELOPMENTS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  18. Perturbed coefficient for minimum diffusion (heat and momentum) • operational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmmin • Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]4 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.8 • Test period: November 2011, 00 UTC runs COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  19. 2m temperature perturbedminimumdiffusion reference Skill (RMSE) spread COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  20. 2m temperature perturbedminimumdiffusion reference Brier Skill Score COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  21. Perturbed soil moisture ± half the difference between C-EU and C-DE soil moisture in all layers but the lowest test period June/July 2012 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  22. Perturbation ~10% of layer water content units: kg/m2 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  23. 2m temperature perturbedsoilmoisture reference Skill (RMSE) spread COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  24. 2m temperature perturbedsoilmoisture reference Brier Skill Score COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  25. Current research DEVELOPMENTS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  26. FINO2 FINO3 FINO1 Probabilisticforecastsforefficientandsafeuseofrenewableenergies (EweLine, ORKA) • Wind, photovoltaic • Evaluateforecastqualityfor wind farms • Improvemethodsfor EPS perturbations, e.g. IC perturbations Hamburg Cabauw Lindenberg Karlsruhe COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  27. COSMO-DE-EPS at FINO2 (100m) wind speed forecast time COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  28. Initial condition perturbationsmodified by orography • Current setup: • add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for selected variables • Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU) • Filter anomalies near the surface • Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40 • Modification: • Degree of perturbation depends on spatial variance of orography • The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of perturbation near the surface • Test period: March 2012, 00 UTC runs COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  29. 1 σh < 125m degree of perturbation σh ≥ 500m 0 model top model level surface COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  30. 10m wind gusts modified IC perturbation reference Skill (RMSE) spread COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  31. 10m wind gusts modified IC perturbation reference CRPS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  32. hourly precipitation modified IC perturbation reference Skill (RMSE) spread COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  33. hourly precipitation modified IC perturbation reference CRPS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  34. 2m temperature modified IC perturbation reference Skill (RMSE) spread COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  35. 1 2 3 4 5 IFS GME GFS BC-EPS GSM COSMO-LEPS M1 M2 M3 M4 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  36. 2m temperature40 members BC-EPS drivenmembers (1-20) LEPS drivenmembers (21-40) winter 2011/12 single-member RMSE BrierSkill Score Threshold in K forecast time in h COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  37. 2m temperature40 members BC-EPS drivenmembers (1-20) LEPS drivenmembers (21-40) winter 2012/13 single-member RMSE BrierSkill Score Threshold in K forecast time in h COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  38. LEPS Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.12 int2lm 1.18 since 2012 0802 COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18 since 2013 0123 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20 no „Kain-Fritsch members“ usedas BC for COSMO-DE-EPS since 2012 0329 BCEPS Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18 since 2012 1204 COSMO 4.22 int2lm 1.20 since 2013 0118 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  39. Future plans PLANS COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  40. Future plans and options • calibration in operational mode (needs evaluation by forecasters) • add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation methods (e.g. stochastic physics) • LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA) • ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?) • use time-lagged ensemble approach in product generation COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

  41. Thank you! COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

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