HUMAN POPULATIONS

1. HUMAN POPULATIONS Chapter 4 APES

2. Pros Larger workforce More new ideas Better able to extend our carrying capacity through development of technology Cons Resource depletion Environmental degradation Pollution Poverty Pros & Cons of Human Population Growth

3. Human Population Growth • Population small before agriculture & domestication of animals • Until Middle Ages, population limited by famine, disease, wars • After 1600, sailing/navigation increased commerce • Around 1800-1900, increases in agricultural development, better energy sources, better health care & hygiene

4. Will our populations overshoot the carrying capacity & experience dieback? • Will our population level off… have we even reached our carrying capacity?

5. Neo-Malthusian We are approaching or have surpassed our carrying capacity. We should address the issue of surplus population directly by making birth control our highest priority. Named after Thomas Malthus Neo-Marxist Eliminating oppression and poverty through technological development and social justice will solve population problems. Named after Karl Marx Who do you agree with?

6. Role of Technology in Population Growth • Increased availability of resources- fossil fuels • Increased agricultural productivity • Increased commerce • Better medicine • Better sanitation

7. Human Demography • “Measure of people” • Do not know exact number- many countries do not take census or census inaccurate • Gov’t may overestimate to make country look larger or smaller to suit their needs • Current estimate- 6.7 billion people • 20% live in developed countries • 80% live in developing countries • 90% of population growth will occur in Third World Countries

8. What are the 12 most populous countries in 2025? • Why do you think India’s population is surpassing China’s? • Population control programs not as successful due to strict cultural & religious beliefs. • Why has the birth rate decreased and death rate increased in Russia? • After Soviet Union broke up in 1992, crime, corruption, disease, hyperinflation, & despair have reduced standard of living • What has affected the population growth in Africa? • 20-25% of people in Zimbabwe, Bostwana, Zambia, & Namibia have HIV/AIDS

9. Fertility & Birthrates • Crude Birth Rate (CBR) • # of births per 1,000 per year • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • # of children born to an average woman in a population during her entire reproductive life. • In 17th & 18th century England, babies given to wet nurse so women could recover quicker & produce more children- could have 25-30 pregnancies • Should total fertility rate be calculated for men, too? • In Cameroon, men have multiple marriages, affairs, etc. Produce 8 children per lifetime vs. females with avg. of 4.8.

10. What we want to achieve is… • Zero Population Growth (ZPG) • Also called Replacement Level Fertility • # of births to just replace yourself • Usually 2 children per couple • Not completely accurate because some people are infertile, some babies don’t survive, some choose to not have kids

11. Fertility rates have declined everywhere except Africa over past 50 years • Ex: In 1975, Mexico’s fertility rate was 7 children per woman. In 1998, it was 2.5 • China dropped from 6 in 1970 to 1.8 in 1995 • Which regions had the biggest decrease in TFR? W. Pacific & SE Asia • Which region had the smallest decrease in TFR? Africa

12. Countries with Highest & Lowest Fertility Rates • Highest in developing countries such as Africa; Lowest in Europe • Based on the data table, what conclusions can you draw?

13. Death Rates • Crude Death Rates (CDR) • # of deaths per 1000 per year • Ex: in Africa with poor sanitation & health care may be 20/1000 • Wealthier countries are about 10/1000 • In a rapidly growing country there are more youths & fewer elderly so fewer deaths

14. Population Growth Rates • CBR-CDR = Natural increase in population • Total Growth Rate- includes immigration & emigration • Total Growth Rate = (CBR + immigration) – (CDR + emigration) • Total Growth Rate of U.S. is higher than natural rate of increase due to immigration. • Better food & nutrition, has decreased CDR. • People living longer due to better food/nutrition, clean water, better education, higher income • Some say declining mortality, not rising fertility, is the primary cause of most population growth

15. What happens if people start living longer? • If people start to live until they are 100… • If people still retire at age 65… • We will have more people who are retired & unemployed for longer periods which could have an effect on the economy- more social security, government subsidized programs = more government debt.

16. Age Structure Diagrams Age Structure • Growing & declining pop. will have very different proportions of individuals in various age classes.

17. Types of Age Structure Diagrams Expanding Population • Young (pre-reproductive) dominates population • Has population momentum- more children will move up to become reproductive • Potential for rapid increase in birth rates once the youngsters reach reproductive age. • EX: Developing countries- many countries in Africa, Mexico, S. America

18. Types of Age Structure Diagrams Stable Populations • Birth rates = death rates • All age groups are about equal • EX: Most Western European countries, U.S.

19. Types of Age Structure Diagrams Declining Populations • Birth rates are lower than death rates • Many more older people who are not reproducing • Population will become much smaller when they die.

20. Why do people emigrate or immigrate? • Seeking political or economic asylum from home country • Wars are prevalent • No jobs or poor economy • Environmental refugees • no longer able to farm land due to change in weather/climate • Homes destroyed by hurricane, tsunamis cause people to flee homes

21. Immigration/Emigration • Immigrants are usually paid low wages & live in substandard housing, have fewer rights, or poor working conditions • Pros- immigrants will perform jobs others will not (dangerous, dirty, physically demanding), bring cultural diversity, ingenuity. • Cons- taking jobs, overload social services, ignore laws, subjected to hate crimes

22. Forced Migrations • Indonesia- 1970’s • Moved 65 million people from overcrowded islands of Java & Bali to less populated Sumatra, Borneo & New Guinea • Attempts at farming the rainforest failed • Ended in economic & environmental disaster • Rainforests were destroyed & people were no better off. • Threatened biodiversity of region

23. Why do people have children? • Pronatalist pressures- factors that increase a desire to have children • Pleasure & pride in children • Support elderly parents (esp., if no social security system) • Have more if more likely to die • Status symbol in some cultures- men are more “manly” if they have more kids • Continue species • Religious pressures to have children • Pregnant women given special status/attention • Need son, will produce kids until get one (or have abortions of girls until they get one) (India) • Women have no status except as mother/wife- often raped if protest husbands advances • Ignorant about birth control methods or religion does not allow use

24. Why are birth rates lower in developed countries? • Higher education of women • Personal freedom of women • Desire to spend money on other goods • Earn a salary = less time to spend @ home & have children • Women waiting longer to have children • More money= better health care= more kids survive= fewer you have to have • Populations tend to boom after a war

25. What are the drawbacks to a declining birth rate? • Lack of future soldiers/military • Lack of workers- affects economy, causing declining social system • Some countries offering incentives to bear children- Germany, Denmark, Russia, Japan • In US & Europe can be good – • declining birth rate = less demand on resources = less pollution

26. Demographic Transition • Pattern of falling death rates & birth rates due to improved living conditions. • Preindustrial societies- food shortages, malnutrition, lack of sanitation & medicine, accidents, other hazards cause higher birth & death rates (30/1000) • Industrialization- better jobs, more income, more people surviving due to rise in standard of living. Death rates decrease, birth rates increase • Postindustrial societies- eventually BR & DR level out & population is at equilibrium. W. Europe saw this in 19th & 20th century. • Many rapidly growing countries are experiencing early stages of demographic transition, but their birth rates are not falling as seen in W. Europe

28. Key to controlling Population Growth… • Education & Empowerment of Women • Giving political rights • Opportunities for them to earn income • Improve their health status • Educating them about birth control • Improve families & better able to take care of children they have so don’t have to have more • Hopefully this will lead to decreasing birth rates • Saving 5 million children from preventable communicative diseases will avoid 20-30 million extra births

29. Family Planning • Allows couples to determine the # & spacing of children • Birth control is an essential part of family planning

30. Methods/Types of Birth ControlPlease note- Mrs. Johnson does not condone or endorse any of these methods- I am just sharing options used by people all over the world. ABSTINENCE IS THE ONLY TRUE WAY TO AVOID UNWANTED PREGNANCY AND DISEASE!!! • Avoidance- Abstinence/using rhythm method/ Delayed marriage • Mechanical barriers- condoms (10% failure rate), spermicides, diaphragm, vaginal sponge • Surgical methods- tubal ligation, vasectomy • Chemicals- birth control pills, gossypol for males, Norplant (silicone “matchsticks” of slow release hormone), Depo-Provera (injections), the Patch, vaginal rings- MANY OF THESE HAVE BEEN KNOW TO CAUSE BLOODCLOTS!! BE CAREFUL!! • Physical Barriers to implantation- IUD • Induced abortions- RU486 (morning after pill) blocks progesterone so pregnancy cannot be maintained • Future of Birth Control- testing urine for hormones, biodegradable inserts, antipregnancy vaccines (immunization against chorionic gonadotropin- hormone needed for maintaining pregnancy), birth control pills for men

31. INCENTIVES Free/more accessible government subsidized family planning Free clinic services, free birth control, free education about birth control Economic Rewards/Penalties Payment for sterilization Eliminating income tax deductions for more than one child Free health care benefits for families with 0-1 child. Monetary bonus at end of year for 0-1 child. Free higher education for women with fewer kids Increased social security for 0-1 kid families Government subsidized housing for 0-1 kids Couples pay a tax for each child after the first one DRAWBACKS Cultural/social issues in some countries Interferes with religion Children punished for actions of parents Fewer workers to support aging community Lack of military These programs cost money- who pays? Difficult to disseminate information or enforce regulations (few TV’s in rural regions) Reduced tax revenue= increased gov’t spending= inflation Civil unrest Emigration/immigration May not work in rural areas because of the need for child labor Increase in # of abandoned children- orphans Increase in STD’s, unwanted pregnancies, etc, that may accompany free birth control Incentives & Drawbacks for Population Control

32. Future of Human Populations • Most predict we will equalize @ 8-10 billion people • Some think based on our current estimates our carrying capacity is 15 billion people. • Obstacles • US Congress refuses to make payments to the UN Family Planning Fund because 135 countries include abortion as part of their population plan • Due to diverse religious beliefs it is difficult for United Nations Earth Summit to come to an agreement on Population Growth Prevention.