Architecture for Increasing Space Markets

1. Architecture for IncreasingSpace Markets Daniel Hettema Scott Neal AnhQuach Robert Taylor

2. Agenda • Context • Stakeholders • Problem & Need Statements • Architecture Requirements • Objective & Proposed Solution • Design Process • Simulation • Transitional Architecture Plan • Conclusion • Management

3. CONTEXT

4. Context • Space has resources that could be used on Earth, or in space to develop a space market • Capabilities and/or technologies for taking advantage of those resources do not currently exist • Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, capabilities and/or technologies can be developed to expand the market

5. “Stepping Stones” Unmanned Probe to Alpha Centauri Near Earth Colonies Resulting Commercial Products • Being search for new habitable planets • Test long-range propulsion technologies Near- Earth Asteroid Mining and Manufacturing Resulting Commercial Productions • New Living space • New ways to improve environment on Earth Space Power Generation & Asteroid Defense Resulting Commercial Products • New Materials • New, low-temp, low-pressure manufacturing techniques Direct Products • Minerals • Energy Hotel , Space Tourism & Garbage Collection Potential Indirect Products/Results • Improved protection for Earth from Space artifacts • Enhance international cooperation New Enabling Technologies • Improved Propulsion • Improved life support

6. Potential for ROI in Space Space Market Potential plan 2x Gap 1x ROI -1x Current plan -2x Time “Obtaining economic benefits from commercial space, including tourism and space solar power…should be the major thrust of our space enterprise.” -SSI Director Dr. Lee Valentine (2002)

7. Current Market • Big Players • Tourism • Government • Private Industry • Resources • Solar • Moon • Asteroids • Limitations • Launch Costs • Funding • Public Interest

8. Tourism Market • $758.7B [US] (EITT, 2010) • Current plans • Virgin Galactic • Current space trips: Starting at $200k • 6 minutes at 68 miles above Earth’s surface • Speeds up to 2500 MPH (Virgin, 2011) • Bigelow Aerospace • Invested $180M, will invest up to $.5B • Expandable Space Habitat designs and prototypes (Bigelow, 2011) 8

9. Governments • Funding • Steve Anderson, Brigadier General (Ret.) • US spends $20B air-conditioning tents and temporary structures in Iraq • NASA annual budget is $18.7B (Opam, 2011) • $71B spent over 50 countries on space programs in 2010 • China: $1.3B • Russia: $3.8B • India: $1.25B (EARSC, 2011)

10. Private Industry • SpaceX • Projected to obtain $1k/lb launch cost goal • Should be maintained if 4 launches annually • Announced April 2011 • First projected launch in 2013 • Payload of 53,000 kg (116,845 lb) • Classification • Super Heavy (≥50,000 kg) (SpaceX, 2011)

11. Limitation • Launch costs • Need for a lower cost per pound index • Government Funding • Not enough funding by governments • Budgets too small or non-existent • Laws • Moon treaty • Bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies. Not ratified by US or other space capable countries.

12. Potential Market Resources • Space Conditions: • Vacuum • Low gravity • Temperature extremes • Resources in space: • Solar power • Minerals

13. Resources In Space: Energy • $370 B [US] (USCB,2011) • Space Based Solar Power: • Geostationary SBSP receives nearly continuous sunlight 99% of operational time • If launch costs of $200/lb could be attained, energy could be sold at as low as 8¢/kWh (NSSO, 2007) • Natural Gas: approx. 3.9-4.4¢/kWh • Coal: approx. 4.8-5.5¢/kWh • Nuclear: approx. 11.1-14.5¢/kWh (PES,2011)

14. Resources In Space: SBSP High solar energy reception (>3x) Transmission Efficiency to Earth: 80-90% (1122-1260 Watts/m2) (NSSO, 2007)

15. Resources In Space: Minerals • Moon • Oxygen, silicon, iron, nitrogen, magnesium, aluminum, and calcium (Brian, 2010) • Asteroids • > 832 – 1km in NEO (NASA, 2011) • Composition • Iridium, osmium, platinum, helium, copper • Nickel, iron, gold, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen • Potassium, phosphorus • What minerals needed for life? • Water, oxygen (human life) • Nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus (plant life)

16. Resource Values on Earth Current market value per ounce: • Gold -$1642 • Platinum -$1519 • Rhodium - $1625 • Iridium - $1085 • Palladium - $605 (Matthey, 2011)

17. Minerals Vs Time (Matthey, 2011)

18. Platinum Trends

19. Potential for ROI in Space Space Market Potential plan 2x Gap 1x ROI -1x Current plan -2x Time

20. Stakeholders

21. Major and MinorStakeholders • Major stakeholders • Governments • Insurance • Mining & Manufacturing • Tourism • Earth’s Population • Energy • Minor stakeholders • Robotics • Launch • Command & Control • Agriculture • Telecommunication

22. Potential Stakeholder Diagram

23. Current Stakeholder Diagram Gap: Limited Market

24. Potential Stakeholder Diagram

25. Current Stakeholder Diagram Tension: No collaboration between Industries

26. Stakeholder Objectives • Government’s Objective • Expand domain, boost economy, protect the people • Planetary Defense • Protect against misuse of space • Insurance’s Objective • Lower risk in space • Satellites

27. Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d) • Mining Objective • Sustainable space-based mining • Manufacturing Objective • Establish permanent manufacturing facilities in space • Tourism Objective • sustainable space-based tourism economy

28. Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d) • Earth’s Population’s Objective • Better life • More resources = More products • Potential new techniques in space • Energy Objective • Provide energy to Earth & space at minimal detriment to the environment

29. Minor Stakeholders • Robotics • Autonomy • Telecommunication • Tele-autonomy, Communication • Launch • Launch sites • Command & Control • Administrative • Agriculture • Food production in space • Entertainment • Inspiration, publicity

30. Problem & Need Statement

31. Problem Statement There are potentially large markets that can utilize the resources and benefits of space. However, the capabilities to utilize those resources do not cost effectively exist in current markets. Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, the architecture will show the order for the development of capabilities to attain resource utilization in space.

32. Need Statement Currently, the required investment needed to capture space resources is too high. A high-level architecture that shows how through an incremental “stepping stone” approach the total investment could be lowered, as industry collaboration is increased. The architecture will provide a road map for industry investments with a minimum of 1.5x return on investment from a total investment of less than one trillion dollars annually.

33. Architecture Requirements

34. Requirements The architecture shall: • show the overall investment from industries is less than one trillion dollars annually. • be designed such that no individual stakeholder will invest more than 10% of overall investment. • produce a plan that generates an ROI of at least 150% for all stakeholders over 5 years. • be limited to three levels of functional decomposition. • produce a plan for investment into capabilities defined as necessary for a space market.

35. OBJECTIVE & Proposed Solution

36. Proposed Solution Design a high-level transitional architecture that shows how industry collaboration can be used to further develop capabilities for space development. The design will show through a sequence of stepping stones how investment in capabilities could be leveraged from the current market position.

37. Objective of Project • Thesis: • Corporation can make money in space • Without mining & manufacturing the required investment from other industries is larger • Generate an ROI calculator • Allows industries to input their data • Included in SPEC Innovations proposal for DARPA’s 100 Year Starship • GMU Space ROI and Architecture: “Identifies potential for return on investment for space to attract commercial and public support”

38. Design Process

39. Top Level Classic Context Diagram

40. Model Context NEAR TERM………….. NOW LONG TERM As - Is Transition To - Be What you have How you move from now to then Your Vision -From SPEC Innovations

41. As-Is Conceptual Model • Very Limited Functionality • Restricted by: • Investment • Laws • Launch capabilities • Technology development • Well known

42. To-Be Conceptual Model • Contains key functionality for developed space • Allows industry's “assets” to perform together • Illustrates collaborative efforts between industries

43. Operational Scenarios: Process • Construct 7 scenarios for developing space • Range from easy to complex • Each scenario builds functionally on the previous scenario

44. Operational Scenarios • Moon Round-trip • Debris Collection • Space Based Solar Power • Lunar Hotel from Earth • Solar Flare at Lunar Hotel • Space Mining • Lunar Hotel with Space Materials

45. Operational Scenarios

46. Scenario 1 • Launch from Earth • Establish course to Moon • Traverse to Moon • Enter Moon orbit • Maintain Moon orbit • Leave Moon orbit • Establish course to Earth • Traverse to Earth • Land on Earth • Service vehicle

47. Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagram (EFFBD) Loop Exit Loop Exit Condition Trigger Output Input Parallel Branches Function

48. Functional Model: Scenario 1

49. Scenario 1 Elements • Assets: • Earth, Moon, space ship • Resource: • Space ship fuel (consumed) • Potential Costs: • Fuel consumption, function based on duration

50. Integrated Behavior Model • Abstracted functionally from all scenarios • Validated by scenarios • Identifies: • Necessary functions • “Generic” assets • Will be in a “steady state” • Foundation for ROI calculator