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Proposal to update default solar NQCs (R.09-10-032, Phase 2) Resource Adequacy Workshop January 25, 2011

Proposal to update default solar NQCs (R.09-10-032, Phase 2) Resource Adequacy Workshop January 25, 2011. Need to modify wind/solar NQC for 2012+ RA compliance years. Under current counting rules wind/solar NQC:

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Proposal to update default solar NQCs (R.09-10-032, Phase 2) Resource Adequacy Workshop January 25, 2011

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  1. Proposalto update default solar NQCs(R.09-10-032, Phase 2)Resource Adequacy WorkshopJanuary 25, 2011

  2. Need to modify wind/solar NQC for 2012+ RA compliance years • Under current counting rules wind/solar NQC: • Equals 70% exceedance (30th percentile) of generation over a pre-specified set of peak period • Based on 3 years of historical data or a default value if project has no history • Issues with current rules: • Default NQC values are not representative of new solar projects’ NQC

  3. Current counting rule overstates system’s reliability • Default solar NQC values overstate value of new solar resources because calculation is dominated by existing, gas-assisted units • Substantial impact if method is unchanged (assume new solar NQC would be 45%) • Impact will be large in the first year of solar addition. For 1,000 MW addition, NQC is over-stated by 500 MW (1,000 MW x (95% - 45%)) • Impact of 1,000 MW addition decreases overtime as new projects’ historical performance is reflected in the NQC calculation • Impact of successive solar additions compound effect Default 2011 NQC solar values Source: Caiso 2011 final NQC report, Dec 7, 2010 http://www.caiso.com/276a/276a8c14493a0.xls

  4. Proposal: Revise default solar NQCs • For 2012 RA and beyond, • Replace default solar NQCs with table of values reflecting differences in solar technology (i.e., PV fixed vs. PV tracking vs. CST) and location • Where historical data is unavailable, use simulated hourly production from representative profiles (e.g. NREL profiles, as used in LTPP)

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