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Week 12: The European Union Tues day 12 th April

Mr. Niall Douglas. Week 12: The European Union Tues day 12 th April. Schedule for Today. 9am-10am : Reading and vocab check 10 am-11am : Niall’s History of the History of the Irish Revolution part 1 of 2 11.20am-12.20pm: Group Task Check 12.20pm-1pm: More English Language Cementing

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Week 12: The European Union Tues day 12 th April

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  1. Mr. Niall Douglas Week 12: The European UnionTuesday 12thApril

  2. Schedule for Today • 9am-10am: Reading and vocab check • 10am-11am: Niall’s History of the History of the Irish Revolution part 1 of 2 • 11.20am-12.20pm: Group Task Check • 12.20pm-1pm: More English Language Cementing • 1pm-1.20pm: Work on tonight’s readings if there is time

  3. Niall’s History of History • As we are into our final week together, I thought I’d throw some of my own research at you. I used to give lectures on this sort of stuff at St. Andrews University for free • Personally I think this sort of stuff will save human civilisation from extinction, but there is very little support out there for it • In other words, most people think I am a crackpot ... 

  4. Niall’s History of History • The proper term for the History of History is Historiography • This is a very fashionable trend in the study of History right now, starting from E.H. Carr’s 1961 book What is History? • However my take on it is deeply unpopular in the field of History because I am “too quantitative” and Historiography is almost entirely sociocultural analysis ...

  5. Niall’s History of History • Before we can explain the Irish revolution, we need to understand time ... • So, what are THE MOST IMPORTANT INVENTIONS ever in human history? • For convenience, I have labelled time in the format “tEn” = “t x 10n” where n is the number of zeros, so4.3e6 = 4.3 x 106 = 4,300,000 years

  6. Table 1: Major Creative Steps (Milestones) before 2008

  7. History of our World in Milestones

  8. Weird huh? • One might think from this graph that a point is coming when technological advances will become so rapid that we reach a “technological singularity” (e.g. Ray Kurzweil) • Ray Kurzweil and those like him is full of shit • This has nothing to do with technology ...

  9. Fields of perception • If you try making ANY list of the most important advances in something long lived and which is still advancing today ... • For example, try writing down the most important single tracks in rock music • Or creative advances in the use of language or mathematics

  10. Fields of perception • It turns out that you will ALWAYS get thirty-five or thirty-six items • And these items will ALWAYS have a smooth line when plotted logarithmically over time • So what is going on? • What happens if you regress that timeline down to zero?

  11. History of our World in Milestones

  12. Fields of Perception • It turns out that there are ALWAYS forty or forty one steps in that progression, it’s just that the most recent five are unknowable to us (too recent to discern) • So how come any of this matters?

  13. Fields of Perception • What’s the ratio between the largest and smallest observations? • Distance: Size of the universe = 4.4e26, size of an electron is 2.8e-15. Ratio: 1.57e41 • Time: Age of the universe 4.33e17, lifetime of a top quark 1e-24. Ratio: 4.33e41 • Forces: Ratio of electrical to gravitational forces between a proton and an electron: 4.4e40 • What’s so special about powers of forty then?

  14. Fields of Perception • It turns out that WE – as in, us humans – can only perceive about forty levels of significance • It’s a cognitive processing artefact, and no technology can EVER remove this problem • So why is this important?

  15. Marketing and Sales • You all know from walking into any shop that consumer choice is king • Yet so much choice is so overwhelming (more than forty) we do things like REDUCE the choice down to price or branding • The key to success in life is REDUCING choice down to less than forty options

  16. Choice • What makes some of us succeed and some fail is how we do that choice reduction • For example, in the SNOs Group 3 likes to reduce uncertainty whereas Group 4 likes to reduce costs • Neither is right and neither is wrong. Both are good choices

  17. The Irish Revolution • Which brings us to the Irish revolution ... • Why did the 1919-1922 revolution succeed when all previous revolutions failed? • 1569-1583: Fitzgeralds revolution • 1594-1603: O Neill revolution • 1641 • 1803 • 1867 • 1916 Easter Rising

  18. The Irish Revolution • If you start to think in terms of powers of forty then the 1919-1922 revolution starts to look different to previous revolutions • It all has to do with information ... • Because REDUCING CHOICE is really all about reducing INFORMATION • Which is why, in my opinion, the 1919-1922 revolution was the first information war in human history • But more on that tomorrow!

  19. This Week’s Group Task • Group Task Work Check

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