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DEBT FUND ANALYSIS. Sep 16, 2008 – Sep 30, 2008. Debt Market Outlook. CD rates have begun their upward movement from this week and are expected to continue to do so even next week on account of cash crunch ,excess provision on account of non-reporting week is likely to tighten the screw
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DEBT FUND ANALYSIS Sep 16, 2008 – Sep 30, 2008
Debt Market Outlook • CD rates have begun their upward movement from this week and are expected to continue to do so even next week on account of cash crunch ,excess provision on account of non-reporting week is likely to tighten the screw • Liquidity is likely to be tight on account of various outflows, apart from advance tax outflow • Although sentiment for the G-sec market remains bullish, amidst declining crude prices and lower W-o-W inflation numbers, buying activity is likely to be less intense next week (September 15-19) on account of significantly higher cash constraints Debt Market Update • Market movements • The G-sec market witnessed aggressive buying, stoked by crude price decline and an estimated base effect-driven softer inflation • Annual inflation for the week ended August 30 reported a softening for a third consecutive week, standing 24bps lower at 12.10% Liquidity/borrowings: • Liquidity remained within comfort levels .This can be attributed to inflows of INR 156 bn and reporting week • On grounds of improved cash conditions, daily average call rate eased to 8.64% compared to 9.14% • The revision in the previous inflation figure also narrowed from 40-60bps in the month of August to 20-30bps for the past two releases • This, along with continued softening of inflation is indicative of reduced inflationary expectations and, thereby, declining momentum • Debt Portfolio Strategy • Liquid Plus Funds are still a safer bet from a short term (3-6 months) horizon • The current FMP yields are high and may not sustain in the long run, therefore investment in long term FMPs is recommended 2
Recommended Debt MF Categories • Liquid Plus Funds: • These funds have favorable portfolio composition. These funds are expected to invest close to 40% on higher side and 25% on the lower side in Corporate Bonds with maturity above 1 year • These funds are able to take advantage of rise in Overnight rates and also increase the portfolio yield by taking call in high duration bonds. In the current scenario where overnight rates are expected to remain high and yields on corporate bond to ease slightly from current levels. These funds are better positioned to take advantage of both the scenarios • These funds provide an indirect bet on Short to Medium term bonds. In case of 100% investment in these bonds an investor can be subject to mark to market compulsion and any rise in rates is likely to hurt the return on investment. However, with investment in Liquid Plus Funds an investor can take advantage of spread investment strategy of these funds • These funds are treated as an income fund and are exempt from the rise in Dividend Distribution Tax. Old rate of Dividend Distribution Tax is applicable to these funds 3
Recommended Schemes in Liquid Plus Funds • Liquid Plus Funds – Retail & Institutional • DWS Money Plus Fund • ICICI Prudential Flexible Income Plan • Birla Sun Life Liquid Plus Fund • Reliance Liquid Plus Fund 7
Recommended Debt MF Categories • Fixed Maturity Plans: • Product with various maturities • FMPs are available with numerous maturity options –1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 5 years. One can invest in the relevant plan depending upon his investment horizon and the requirement of cash flows on maturity • Minimal risk • Unlike debt funds, which are exposed to three kinds of risks viz. interest rate, credit and liquidity risk, FMPs are a better option • FMPs are least exposed to interest rate risk as the fund manager holds the instruments till maturity getting a fixed rate of return. Thus FMP can manage to get a specific interest on these instruments and investors have a fair idea about it. This helps investors tailor their investments as per their future cash requirements • They primarily invest in AAA, P1+ or such kind of good rated credit instruments with maturity profile of the securities in line with the maturity of the plan so there is also low credit risk with minimal liquidity risk involved • Tax Efficient Returns • FMPs yield competitive & tax efficient returns as the tax rates on a FMP are comparatively lesser than the tax rates in other debt funds 12
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