4G Here We Come! Pulver Voice Over Networks Conference Phoenix, Arizona March 23, 2001

1. 4G Here We Come!Pulver.com Voice Over Networks ConferencePhoenix, Arizona March 23, 2001 Phillip D. Neumiller Phil_Neumiller@3Com.com Mobility Zealot at Large 3Com Corporation 3800 Golf Road Rolling Meadows, IL 60008

2. Outline • Wideband RF channels an Overview • Spectrum Absurdities • 3G Absurdities • 4G Opportunities • Conclusion

3. Wideband Channel Basics Noisy Channel XMTR RCVR What the Hartley-Shannon equation taught us was that: C = W log2 (1 + S/N) Where: C = Channel Capacity in bits/second W = Channel bandwidth in Hz S/N = The channel’s Signal (power in Watts) to (Noise power in Watts) ratio NOTE: Radio channels also exhibit various types of fading. Specifically Rayleigh fast fading and log-normally distributed shadow (or slow fading). Out of scope for us today.

4. Thin and Powerful is out…

5. Fat and Low is the way to go

6. Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Processing Gain Gp = Wss / R Where Gp = Processing Gain Wss = Spread Spectrum Bandwidth R = Data rate of transmitting system

7. Digital Channel Bandwidth Efficiency In a digital system the channel bandwidth efficiency is defined by: Bandwidth Efficiency = rb / B (binary digits/second/Hz). Which in an ideal system is just Shannon’s C

8. Outline • Wideband RF channels an Overview • Spectrum Absurdities • 3G Absurdities • 4G Opportunities • Conclusion

9. The Truth About Spectrum • Bandwidth offers a big bang for the buck • High power offers a low bang for the buck (go fry the poodle) • 4G will move up-band into shorter millimeter wavelengths • Digital bandwidth efficiency increases roughly in the square of the frequency. • The bandwidth versus power argument lies at heart of the old CDMA versus TDMA arguments. • The spectrum management policies adopted by world governments are outdated and based on FDMA and TDMA technologies - especially those used for 3G CDMA auctions! Go figure?

10. Spectrum Conspiracy? Asia Europe NWO/Tri-laterals Freemasons Central Banks National Debt $5.7 trillion U.S.GOV 1.7 T Budget 200B Surp $100B/? NSA, FBI, CIA CALEA FCC = Federal Cash Cow Federal Reserve Bearcat scanners made useless! Cellular Operators 1994 G. Orwell off by 10? Cellular consumers get shafted and double taxed!

11. US RF Spectrum Policy • Auctions of the RF spectrum in the US began in 1994.  • The idea was they would be used to help pay down the debt. Last time I checked we had huge annual budget surpluses. • Isn’t the RF spectrum a public trust? • Who authorized its use as federal revenue source (i.e. pork barrel)? • Will the people of the U.S. ever get the RF spectrum back? • Since the operator licenses are “renewed” the U.S. people are continually taxed for its use since its cost is passed on to the consumer by the license holders. This stinks and it is taxation without representation.  This policy is hampering innovation and actually helping to create the digital divide! • Write your congressperson today! (http://www.house.gov/writerep)

12. Stupid Spectrum Tricks “The U.S. congress now requires the FCC to auction everything (except digital television frequencies[and they are now talking about that]) when there are competing parties, the wireless field is slanted toward [slow moving, monopolistic, low tech, mostly circuit switched, heavily regulated – pdn] deep-pocket players and the subscriber model, in which consumers must pay for services rendered.” - Bennet Z. Kobb “Auctions give the FCC power [in an era of deregulation].” Former FCC Commissioner Reed Hundt commenting on how the FCC creates artificial spectrum scarcity to help jack up prices.

13. Some Issues in European RF Spectrum Allocation The EC countries are unable to sub-contract or trade spectrum with their current laws so hoarding is running rampant. This is very wasteful and creates even more artificial scarcity thus driving prices higher in a vicious cycle. The UMTS business models bring a lot of uncertainty. Even so, the UMTS spectrum has already been auctioned off at huge sums.

14. Outline • Wideband RF channels an Overview • Spectrum Absurdities • 3G Absurdities • 4G Opportunities • Conclusion

15. IMT-2000 Vision of 3G (The Hype) • High data rates: 144 kbps outdoor mobile, 384 kbps urban, 2 Mbps indoor urban isolated cell. • Sym/asymmetrical data transmission, e.g. dload can be faster. • Circuit-switched and packet switched services e.g. Voice/data. • Good voice quality (comparable to wire-line quality). • Greater capacity and improved spectrum efficiency. • Several simultaneous services to end-users and terminals, for multimedia services, e.g. Video. • The seamless incorporation of second-generation cellular systems, e.g. Handover to and from 2G systems. • Global, i.e. international roaming, between different IMT-2000 operational environments. • Economies of scale and an open global standard that meets the needs of the mass market.

16. 3G Realities • A recent study by Herschel Shosteck Associates noted that operators that pay large amounts for spectrum will have to charge end users so much that adoption of 3G will be slow. • Another study by Strategy Analytics agreed, predicting that, while wireless data revenues will soar, 3G networks will account for less than a quarter of that revenue by 2010. So-called 3G killer apps such as multimedia won't succeed, the second study said. • Pent-up demand: Now there's the rub. Even NTT DoCoMo doesn't think there's much pent-up demand among consumers for 3G multimedia services, so it will target its initial 3G offering at business -- and price it accordingly.

17. 3G Network Architecture • Voice Centric network architecture really circuit centric in many ways (preserves circuit architecture) • Walled garden services • “Private” core networks attached to PSTN and glob Internet • Subscriber model • Gradual evolution of 2G and 2.5 architectures • An alphabet soup of competing standards. TIA/cdma2000/UWC136, T1 (WCDMA), TTA (CDMA I&II), ETSI (UMTS), ARIB/TTC (W-CDMA), CWTS (TD-SDCDMA). Main players 3GPP2 (cdma200) and 3GPP(UMTS) and MWIF a 3G influencing body.

18. 3G Business Model • IP consumers are used to the all-you-can eat pricing model of ISPs. • Cellular operators are used to the minutes-of-use pricing model. • Whether it's 2G or 3G, U.S. operators must find a way to move to all-you-can-eat pricing which will be VERY difficult given the price of spectrum foisted upon them by greedy governments. • Many operators will simply run 2.5G and 2.75G technologies in the 3G spectrum and call it 3G. 1Xtreme, HDR, EDGE are examples. • The delayed delivery of 3G will shake out the innovators that don’t have deep pockets and leave the fat cats to play.

19. Good things in 3G (to keep in 4G) • Advanced Radio technologies in General and these in specific: • Advances in the art of applying CDMA • OFDM (not HYPERLAN II or 802.11a here but CDMA) • Smart antennas / Digital beam forming / Spatial Processing • Enhanced distributed MAC technologies • Advanced RF diversity technologies • Advanced DSP and channel coding and algorithms. • Advances in handset cost reduction, SoC technology, manufacturing cost reduction, volume fabrication, disposable handsets.

20. Outline • Wideband RF channels an Overview • Spectrum Absurdities • 3G Absurdities • 4G Opportunities • Conclusion

21. The 4G network that the cell-heads dream about • The cellular folks are targeting 2010 for a 4G roll out, after they have soaked us all with substandard service on 3G for 8 years and world governments have grown even fatter. • Target data rates are 100 Mbps+. • They say applications like tele-presence will be possible (remote medical operations, remote virtual live sex, who knows what else). • Author’s NOTE: I don’t buy any of this…. If it were true, it would be done over fiber now - and its not. This is marketing fluff.

22. Edge Router Edge Router Edge Router Edge Router Ultimate 4G Network Architecture Global Internet • No Macro-mobility! • No micro-mobility! • Mobility implicit to IP! Ad Hoc

23. 4G Opportunities • As an industry (targeted for 2010???) We HAVE to do better… • Promote the all-you-can-eat access model. • Bypass the copper local loop (of course) USE 4G/Glass! • We must demand almost free spectrum NOT necessarily unlicensed. Why does FREE imply un-licensed and un-regulated? Has the FCC gone nuts? “Has the wireless industry gone collectively nuts?” - Arthur Ross (Novatel) • 4G Consumer RF devices must be really REALLY cheap, I mean less than 10 bucks a pop/consumer device or it simply won’t fly. This may rule out fancy stuff like OFDM or UWB. 3G may ultimately fail due to expensive handsets (among a host of other problems like lousy network architecture).

24. 4G Access Equipment • 4G wireless access equipment can be slightly more expensive than the portable consumer devices but it will still command low margins. OFDM, UWB, enhanced LMDS/MMDS will be more likely candidates here. • In-home video distribution and back-bone equipment will initially also command higher margins and be luxury items. They will probably be sold as high end home AV system gear at first but as more of the home becomes unplugged it may become the norm. Portable HDTVs won’t catch on for a long while.

25. 4G Techs to Watch • OFDM = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing • UWB = Ultra-Wide-Band RF • Smart Antennas, Digital Beam Forming • Edge Meshing and ad hoc Routing and Trunking of IP traffic with Wideband RF routers • Wide deployment of Last Mile 4G solutions • Wide deployment of cheap personal portable wideband peer-to-peer 4G devices. • Advances in signal processing, fuels cells, ambient power.

26. Conclusion • There is no spectrum shortage the spectrum scarcity is created by world government policies that are based on a TDMA mind set. • We need regulation not auctions. We need free spectrum. • We need entrepreneursnottelephony conglomerates. • 4G networks should be built by packet network providers not telecommunications giants. • 4G networks should be built now and compete directly with 3G – not have to wait until 2010.