Photo Credit: The Tridge - Midland, Mi by Bluejacket _Flickr

1. Photo Credit: The Tridge - Midland, Mi by Bluejacket _Flickr East Central Michigan – Regional Prosperity Strategy Strategic Management Team Meeting 14 August 2014 TIP Strategies John Karras

2. AGENDA • Review project process • Discuss role of Strategic Management Team • Present initial quantitative findings • Discuss initial qualitative findings • Determine benchmark regions • Discuss dashboard • Review next steps

3. Project process 1

4. PROJECT PROCESS • Review existing documents & information • In progress • Stakeholder discussions & interviews • In progress • Conduct economic assessment • In progress • Identify benchmark regions & data points for performance dashboard • Today • Opportunity Workshop • Mid September

5. PROJECT SCHEDULE You are here

6. Strategic management team 2

7. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT TEAM • Meet monthly in person (during TIP visits) or via conference call • Review draft documents & provide feedback • Identify and engage key stakeholders in region • Provide strategic direction for content of strategy • Approve and prioritize draft strategies • Communicate with Advisory Team throughout project

8. #4 our framework Initial findings (quantitative) 3

9. East Central Michigan is self-sufficient in terms of commuting patterns. 73% of the region’s workforce lives in the 8 counties.

10. NET DAILY COMMUTER TRAFFIC Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database

11. Each of the 8 counties draws at least 2/3 of its workforce from within the region.

12. REGIONAL LABOR SHED, 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database

13. More than 50% of employed residents in each of the 8 counties stay in the region for their jobs.

14. REGIONAL COMMUTE SHED, 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database

15. The region draws in workers for retail, restaurants & manufacturing. Commuters leave the region to work in professional & administrative services.

16. COMMUTING BY SECTOR Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database

17. The Manufacturing sector has added jobs each year since 2010. Theeducationsector has declinedin employment in each of the last 5 years.

18. NET JOB CHANGE BY SECTOR Source: EMSI Complete Employment 2014.2

19. Manufacturing is the region’s strongest industry cluster, but each county has its own set of unique industry strengths.

20. INDUSTRY STRENGTHS, 2014 Source: EMSI Complete Employment 2014.2

21. INDUSTRY STRENGTHS, 2014 Source: EMSI Complete Employment 2014.2

22. 5 of the 8 counties have gained jobs since 2009. The only county that gained jobs from 2001-2009 and 2009-2014 is Isabella County.

23. JOB CHANGE BY COUNTY Source: EMSI Complete Employment 2014.2

24. Farm employment in the region has been relatively stable and is much more concentrated than Michigan and the U.S. as a whole.

25. FARM EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

26. Agriculture is a major contributor to the region’s economy, especially in Gratiot & Arenac Counties.

27. CROPS & LIVESTOCK, 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

28. There are significant migration patterns within the region and to/from the region.

29. MIGRATION PATTERNS, 2010 Source: Forbes, U.S. Internal Revenue Service

30. Underwater home loansand mortgage delinquency levels vary widely across region.

31. UNDERWATER HOME LOANS, 2014 Source: Zillow

32. UNDERWATER HOME LOANS, 2014 Source: Zillow

33. The amount of new housing being built and planned in the region is far lower than before the Great Recession, but is rising quickly.

34. HOUSING PERMIT TRENDS Source: U.S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development, Building Permits Database

35. HOUSING PERMIT TRENDS Source: U.S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development, Building Permits Database

36. #2 Initial findings (qualitative) 4

37. ASSETS • Higher education institutions • Major investments across region • Job growth in several key sectors • Natural resources (water, recreation, ag) • Affordability (land, labor, housing) • Diversity across 8 counties • Urban revitalization • Huge potential for collaboration

38. CHALLENGES • Stagnant population growth • State of Michigan tax & budgetary climate • Road infrastructure • Extreme fragmentation of local govts. • Negative perception/reality of Michigan • Negative perception/reality of Saginaw • Low ed. attainment levels (worse in rural areas) • Significant workforce gaps

39. WHAT ELSE? • Economic Development • Workforce Development • Transportation • Higher Education • Adult Education

40. #2 Potential benchmark regions 5

41. BENCHMARK REGIONS? • In-State • Flint • Grand Rapids • Lansing • Detroit • Others? • Out-of-State • Rockford, IL • Toledo, OH • Fort Wayne, IN • Duluth, MN • Others?

42. #2 PERFORMANCE DASHBOARD 6

43. DASHBOARD DATA POINTS? • Conventional data • Jobs created • New business creation • Size of labor force • Unemployment rate • Median wages • Median income • Poverty rate • Ed. attainment • Capital investment • Others? • New data • Zillow housing prices • Utility hookups • Retail sales • Building permits • Gym memberships • Others?

44. #2 Next steps 7

45. NEXT STEPS • Conduct additional interviews • Complete economic assessment • Develop preliminary concepts for strategies • Opportunity Workshop

46. OPPORTUNITY WORKSHOP • TIP • Present findings from Discovery Phase (final version of economic assessment) • Begin identification of strategies • Gauge interest/excitement for strategies • Strategic Management Team • Put forward ideas for strategies • Connect with key stakeholders in region • Promote good strategies in front of larger group • Date of Opportunity Workshop • Sept. 16, 17, 18?

47. QUESTIONS ?

48. THANK YOU

49. 106 E 6th Street, Suite 550 Austin, TX 78701 512.343.9113 tipstrategies.com