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Economic Analysis of Developing Countries in a Global Context

This report delves into economic indicators of developing nations, analyzing key factors like industrial production, trade, oil prices, and more. Gain insights for informed decision-making.

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Economic Analysis of Developing Countries in a Global Context

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJune 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Industrial countries

  3. Largest recipients of TARP funds Source: U.S. Treasury

  4. USA

  5. Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial reboundU.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

  6. Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  7. ECB interest rate and InflationEurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change ECB Interest rate Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  8. Japanese exports to ChinaIn Billion Yen Exports to China (RHS) Total exports, excluding China (lhs) Source: Thomson/Datastream

  9. Unemployment close to 2003 LevelPercentage of labor force Unemployment rate Source: Thomson/Datastream

  10. Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock building turns negativegrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports Source: Eurostat

  11. Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD OECD composite leading indicators OECD Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  12. Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial reboundU.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

  13. Japanese Industrial ProductionVolume Index, 2005 = 100 Industrial Production Source: Thomson/Datastream

  14. European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economynumber of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L] Source: Eurostat.

  15. German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar domestic orders Total export orders Source: Bundesbank.

  16. Industrial production

  17. OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception)industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia Latin America South Asia Europe and Central Asia Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  19. NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gainsindustrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Korea Thailand Hong Kong (SAR, China) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  20. International trade

  21. Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basisgoods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar) Developing Countries Source: Thomson/Datastream

  22. Oil prices

  23. Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts $/bbl mb/d OPEC Production [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) OECD Non-OECD Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Food prices decline in March on weak demand (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Copper prices rebound on falling stocks $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Consumption Growth (% y/y) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond *as of April 17th Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream

  33. Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Capital raised [L] # of deals [R] Source: Dealogic

  34. Currencies

  35. Focus

  36. The External Environment for Developing CountriesApril 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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