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SCEC – PG&E-SCE 2013 Research Coordination Meeting

SCEC – PG&E-SCE 2013 Research Coordination Meeting. Norm Abrahamson Sep 14, 2012. Objective. Set up a more formal process for how SCEC, PG&E and SCE will collaborate on seismic research Set the research topics and budgets in time to meet the schedule for the SCEC RFP.

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SCEC – PG&E-SCE 2013 Research Coordination Meeting

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  1. SCEC – PG&E-SCE 2013 Research Coordination Meeting Norm Abrahamson Sep 14, 2012

  2. Objective • Set up a more formal process for how SCEC, PG&E and SCE will collaborate on seismic research • Set the research topics and budgets in time to meet the schedule for the SCEC RFP. • Is September the best month for this?

  3. SWUS Schedule • May – Sep 2012 • Set up validation exercises • Jun - Nov 2012 • Additional modules added to broadband platform • Simulations from non-planar ruptures • Sep 2012 – Mar 2013 • Validations (parts A and B) • Present plan for numerical simulations at SSHAC Workshop • Apr 2013 • SCEC evaluation of simulation methods (combination of modules) that pass the validation • May – Oct 2013 • SCEC Workshop (June?) comparison of Initial results from forward simulations from methods that passed validation • SCEC Workshop (September) to evaluate results and understand causes of differences • SSHAC Workshop (October) simulation results and empirical GMPs • Nov 2013 - Feb 2014 • Final results from second set of forward simulations

  4. SWUS 2013 Topics • Validation of broadband platform • Part A (compare simulations to recorded eqk) • 23 validation earthquakes • Reduce scope to 10 eqk if running out of time • Part B (compare forward simulations to NGA medians) • 2-4 scenarios (M6.5, M7.0, R=15, R=40, rock site) • Complete Mar 2013 • Evaluation by SCEC panel in Apr 2013 • 2013 Budget • $250K each from SCE and PG&E ($500k total) • Plus 15% SCEC overhead

  5. SWUS 2013 Topics • Application of broadband platform (Forward modeling) • Cases to be set at the Mar 2013 workshop • Should be fairly limited volume of runs • 3-4 rupture geometries for DCPP and SONGS • 1-2 rupture geometries for PVNGS • Initial set of simulations by Sep 2013 • Need workshop to review/compare results • Revised set of simulations by Feb 2014 • Budget in SWUS project plan is $100k

  6. PG&E Topics – SSC • Chances of Branch faulting • Use of quasi-static earthquake simulators • Use ofdynamic rupture models to evaluate chances of branch faulting • Verification of the dynamic rupture models for branch faulting • Continuing support for dynamic rupture TAG • Will this be ready for application by Nov 2013? • DCPP geometry: • Strike-slip faults, 15-30 degree difference in strike • Magnitude pdf for faults • Evaluation of characteristic eqk model as used in the seismic hazard industry • Location of 1927 Lompoc earthquake • Other catalog issue • Adequate documentation for the catalog? • CFM extending north to San Luis Obispo?

  7. PG&E topics - GM • Broadband platform – long term items • Add NL site to the simulations • Add 3-D crustal models to validation • Need 3-D models at our sites to be of use • Additional methods – Process needed • Evaluation of method • Documentation should be complete • Implement module in BB platform • Validation of the variability of source parameters in the rupture generator • Needed for replacing empirical GMPEs with simulations • Not to be used in SWUS (will use empirical sigma)

  8. PG&E topics - GM • Extending dynamic rupture models to high frequencies • Need validation • Will this go on the broadband platform? • Simulations for creeping faults • Source parameters for creeping faults from dynamic ruptures? • CVM extending north?

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