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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services. T. Onsager, J. Kunches, W. Murtagh, and C. Balch NOAA GPS/GNSS Workshop Boulder, CO October 24, 2007. Outline. Customer needs and actions Recent customer growth Products and services Vision for future products.

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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services

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  1. NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterProducts and Services T. Onsager, J. Kunches, W. Murtagh, and C. Balch NOAA GPS/GNSS Workshop Boulder, CO October 24, 2007

  2. Outline • Customer needs and actions • Recent customer growth • Products and services • Vision for future products

  3. Space Weather User Community

  4. Recent Trends • Steady overall growth of users • Fastest growing user areas: GPS & Polar Aviation

  5. Recent Trends • Drivers for GPS market • Deep-sea drilling • Surveying • FAA navigation systems • DOD operations • Mining & Farming operations • Construction • GPS Global Production Value – expected growth: • 2003 - $13 billion • 2008 - $21.5 billion • 2017 - $757 billion • Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005

  6. - “We use GPS worldwide to position oilrigs and survey vessels, perform marine construction survey operations as well as a variety of airborne GPS survey operations…It is crucial to our organization to receive information on impending solar activity” If airborne survey data, or marine seismic data, are useless or poor, due to high solar activity levels…the financial and scheduling impact is significant, with costs in the $50,000 to $200,000 range daily for large airborne and marine platforms. Fugro Chance (April 2006)

  7. SEC Customers – Drilling/Surveying

  8. Major Forecast Center Products • Daily Forecasts: - Solar flares - Solar energetic particles - Geomagnetic activity - 10.7 cm radio flux • Event-Driven Warnings and Alerts: - Warnings: geomagnetic storms, proton events - Alerts: solar flare, proton event, geomagnetic storm, electron event, solar radio burst

  9. Operational Models • U.S. Total Electron Content • D-Region Absorption – HF Comm Outage • STORM time empirical ionospheric correction model • Geomagnetic Activity Index Prediction • Solar Wind Prediction • Relativistic Electron Forecast Model

  10. U.S. Total Electron Content Model  Real-time ionospheric maps of total electron content every 15 minutes  Currently uses about 100 real-time GPS stations  Model uncertainty is provided as the standard deviation in estimated TEC  US-TEC slant path total electron content uncertainty < 2 TECU  US-TEC vertical electron content uncertainty < 1 TECU  Goal: Provide regional maps of TEC over the entire globe

  11. Key Data Sources • Ground Sites • Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) • Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) • SOON Sites (USAF) • RSTN (USAF) • Telescopes and Magnetographs • Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) • GPS (CORS) • SOHO (ESA/NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona (CMEs) ESA/NASASOHO • ACE (NASA) • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles • Vector Magnetic field L1 NASAACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES • STEREO (NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona & Heliosphere (CMEs) • In-situ plasma & fields • In-situ energetic particles • SWAVES • GOES (NOAA) • Energetic Particles • Magnetic Field • Solar X-ray Flux • Solar EUV Flux • Solar X-Ray Images • POES (NOAA) • High Energy Particles • Total Energy Deposition • Solar UV Flux

  12. Future Products • Forecasts, Forecasts, Forecasts!!! • IF GOES, STEREO, and SDO give better solar observations • AND ACE, STEREO, KwaFu give the solar wind propagating earthward • PLUS CORS, COSMIC give ionospheric conditions globally • THEN USTEC and newer renditions give predictions for Positioning /Navigation/Timing (PNT) users • External user base continues to grow • Electronic navigation (GPS III, Galileo, Glonass, Compass, etc., plus backup system eLoran) • Commercial providers, per recent interaction with AGI • NextGen, E911/E112, ADS-B implementations all rely on GPS/GNSS to be the best it can be • Internal to NOAA, user base also expanding • Airborne, marine, ground surveying all need optimal GPS/GNSS

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