Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions

1. Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions • Ron Rancourt, David French • Topics: • Peak Oil defined; • Review of the conference; • Individual and community solutions. • Presentation Available online: • http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

2. World Peak Oil defined • The point at which world oil production maxes out, and begins to decline forever. • July 2008 (we are at the peak)‏ • Geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted US Peak oil in 1956, 14 years before it occurred in 1970. http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com 2

3. World Peak Oil cont.. • A Global Supply-Demand problem • China, India growing, becoming more affluent • World oil sources are in decline • No significant new discoveries being made despite massive investment • Last remaining sources are in politically unsettled countries • Current exporting countries are keeping more for themselves! http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

4. There is only so much oil... Supply-Demand Gap http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com Source: www.aspo-ireland.org

5. There is only so much oil... Supply-Demand Gap http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

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7. Implications • World demand on decreasing supply forces prices up • The cost of everything increases • No substitution for easily accessible, cheap oil • No technological quick-fix • If it wasn't for the current global financial crisis we would see $150/barrel oil today. http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

8. Alberta Tar Sands • Worst environmental disaster in Cdn history. • Consumes massive amounts of natural gas and fresh water to process bitumen • Can't meet demand • Other liquid alternatives to oil can't make up the difference either • EROI (Energy Return on Investment) on oil alternatives is too low http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

9. Alberta Tar Sands: Syncrude The Syncrude Canada oil sands upgrader facility in Fort McMurray (Larry MacDougal_Globe and Mail)‏ http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

10. http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

11. http://www.plancconference.org http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

12. Individual and Community Solutions • Plan C: Curtailment, Community • Individuals have most potential to make a difference: • Our Housing, Food and Transportation amounts to 2/3 of all personal energy consumption. • Eco-Village/Intentional Community options. • Local Food, local economy http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

13. Urban Cities • Cost to build and maintain roads, infrastructure and services will rise dramatically • Ottawa has and will postpone/cancel road/bridge projects due to high fuel costs. Transit is the way to go. • Buildings: Retrofit incentives required for homes and commercial buildings for energy efficiency beyond LEED, EcoStar. • Forward thinking? Time is running out. • Governments are slow moving, often stand in the way of progress. It's up to us. http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

14. Urban Cities • Poor design promotes sprawling suburbs • Expensive to service, maintain • Ottawa has unique characteristics: • Spread out East West • Greenbelt, since 1958, was intended to prevent sprawl, today it's used as an excuse to support it. • Developers, the OMB rule. http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

15. Ottawa People are starting to understand that the city's finances -- driven by rapid suburban growth, demand for more government services and sharply rising costs for those services -- are not sustainable. • Patrick Dare, The Ottawa CitizenPublished: Monday, November 10, 2008

16. Changing Cities • Post Carbon Cities Guide • Take examples from successful cities around the world. • Fast-track energy reducing policies, incentives • Divert more money from road budget to rail transit, bicycle network http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

17. Changing Cities • Preparing for Peak Oil • A new guide for municipalities • By the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (UK) and Post Carbon Institute • www.odac-info.org http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

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19. Individual Choices • Drive less, go from 2 cars to 1, share a vehicle with a neighbour • Smart Jitney, Vrtu-car, CommunAuto • Buy Local Food, share a garden • Insulate your house • German Passive House (heat it with a hair dryer!)‏ • Passive Solar space/water heating http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

20. House Insulation • Consider whole-house as a system. • Before replacing your furnace, look at your building envelope. • Air quality, humidity, energy use • Building practices past and future: • We were not concerned with leaky houses since energy was cheap. • Now we need airtight houses with smaller heating/cooling requirements http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

21. German Passive House http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

22. Solar hot water • Cost effective, shorter payback than PV electricity • H2Ottawa project to help people through the process - http://www.sustainableottawa.ca/ • Can be used with radiant floor heating, and combined with other water heating systems http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

23. References • Passive House UK: www.passivehouse.co.uk • Ottawa Citizen Nov 10: City Cash woes veer out of control • http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/city/story.html?id=d160c2d0-1248-4536-9b93-c5bd444e5dff • Greber plan, Greenbelt, Ottawa history: http://www.teskey.com/ottawa/ • Peak Oil Analysis • http://theoildrum.com • Association for the stufy of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO): www.peakoil.net • www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net • Response to Peak Oil • http://www.postcarbon.org • http://postcarboncities.net • Reports from other cities (Hamilton), provinces, states that are taking action: http://postcarboncities.net/peakoilactions http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com