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Exploring Community Solutions’ Plan C: Dealing with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Rising Inequity

Presented by Pat Murphy, Executive Director, Community Solutions Yellow Springs, OH 45387 March 2010. Exploring Community Solutions’ Plan C: Dealing with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Rising Inequity. Founded in 1940 to advocate for Small Communities Arthur Morgan’s view

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Exploring Community Solutions’ Plan C: Dealing with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Rising Inequity

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  1. Presented by Pat Murphy, Executive Director, Community Solutions Yellow Springs, OH 45387 March 2010 Exploring Community Solutions’ Plan C: Dealing with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Rising Inequity

  2. Founded in 1940 to advocate for Small Communities Arthur Morgan’s view Humans develop best in a particular place over generations Interact in a “face-to-face” manner – our “Home Town” In 2003 CS began studying Climate Change and Peak Oil Factors that may lead to small community resurgence Represents a trend to “relocalization/localization” (Related but not identical) The Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions (CS)

  3. Four interrelated threats to humanity Increasing CO2 (from burning fossil fuels) Threatens life on earth Shrinking amounts of fossil fuels – “Peak Oil (Energy)” Implies a declining material standard of living Record inequity – result of cheap fuels and cheap credit More violence, suffering and alienation today Related to current economic crisis Population growth Can the earth support 7 billion people? Sustainability Needs a New Definition

  4. The Threat of Climate Change • CO2 – 387 ppm; increasing 2.1 ppm annually • James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!

  5. World Facing Energy Limits • Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says will be in 2010 • IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – Fatih Birol says 2020 • 10 years difference is small – agreement that it is real

  6. World Inequity Highest in History • Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 • Contraction & Convergence Movement – Europe and NGOs

  7. Unsustainable Population Growth • This is a very serious problem • Also each person is consuming more energy !

  8. Cheap, plentiful fossil fuel energy Peak Oil implies it’s going to end Climate change shows consuming it is very dangerous Inequity implies it’s unequally distributed & undemocratic Population growth based on a temporary source of food How have we talked about this? “We must become more ‘sustainable’”! But few know how or exactly what that means However – more and more are becoming aware of the crises And they are proposing solutions What’s the Common Factor?

  9. Plan A – Black (fossil fuel technology) More oil, gas, tar sands Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car companies Maintain current life style – 95% of population Plan B – Green (solar, wind, switch grass) technology Focused primarily on intermittent electricity generation Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown, environmental NGOs Maintain current life style – 5% of population Plan C – high-satisfaction, low-energy lifestyle Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage Change current life style – 1% or less of population Three Current Technology/Societal Options

  10. Plan C Questions Modern Technology – Problem or Solution? • 10,000 years of Agrarian living • ~250 years of technology living • 65 years hyper-technology living • Modern world is an “energy” world • Technology is limited • Fuel cell car a 30 year effort • Electric cars 90 years old • Fusion 40 years late

  11. Fossil Fuels and Uranium Oil and Gas Not enough resources Coal-Tar Sands-Oil Shale Not enough atmosphere Nuclear fission Not enough resources Nuclear fusion Too difficult Renewables Biomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soil Hydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Uses energy to make hydrogen Photovoltaic & wind power Proven – but will they scale? Why are there so few options? Are we at a point of diminishing returns? Has anything new been added since energy crisis of 1970s? Energy Sources Are Limited

  12. Energy Devices Are Limited • Fuel Cell cars a 30-year debacle • $17 billion spent – few cars • EV a less expensive debacle • Few $ billion spent – 4,000 made • PHEV next techno fix – a coal car • Only a bit less CO2 per mile than a hybrid • Green Building doesn’t save much energy • 15-25% savings at best: need 80-90% • Repeat – Why are there so few options? • Is technology at a point of diminishing returns?

  13. Plan C – A Contingency Plan Curtail Consumption Fast • Community survival strategies • Key word is survivable – not sustainable • We must cut energy use – fast! • Cuts must be deep and quick • IPCC: 80-90% by 2050; 3-4% yearly • Can’t wait for possible techno-fixes • Our focus: • Cut energy under personal control • House, food, cars – 2/3 U.S. energy

  14. Plan C – A “Community” ContextHigh-Satisfaction, Low-Energy Lifestyle • A “sufficiency” life style • Cooperating vs. Competing • Sharing vs. Hoarding • Saving vs. Consuming • Context where curtailment is not suffering • Happiness is in relating, not accumulating • “Live simply that others may simply live” • Community is a cooperation principle • Now high-consumption competitive living • Need high-satisfaction cooperative living

  15. Our work is technology/science-based Technology of depletion – proven by M. King Hubbert Climate Science – more or less well accepted now (IPCC) Psychology/Sociology – “Bowling Alone” Ecological economics Our research is in Plan C intermediate technology Buildings, personal transportation, food Plan C challenges false technical promises – green or black Plan C insists on measuring “sustainability” BOE consumed, CO2 generated and PPP changes Science of Plan C

  16. Need to deeply understand energy and CO2 accounting Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI) Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Embodied Energy vs. Operating Energy (EE and OE) Deep understanding requires per capita comparisons Nation comparisons are always misleading Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous There are three key “macro” considerations CO2 generation (tonnes per capita per year) Energy consumption (BOE per capita per year) Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year) Per Capita Thinking – “If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!”

  17. World Organization by Energy • Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development – OECD • OECD-L = OECD minus US. (Turkey, Mexico moved to ROW) • US is a separate category of its own • 82% of all people live in ROW (Rest of World)

  18. IPCC Requires 90% CO2 Reduction by 2050 • Per capita comparison • 33 most populous nations • 80% of world population • Also OECD-L and ROW • Survival (sustainable) level • 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 2050 • 4 tonne CO2 world average today • 19 tonne CO2 US average today • U.S. greatest CO2 contributor • 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2 • Needs a 90% cut

  19. Energy Consumption and CO2 • Per capita comparison • Same 33 nations • And OECD – L/ROW • Chart shape the same • CO2 = 2.3 times energy • HxCy >> CO2 + heat

  20. CO2 & Energy Relationship

  21. Energy Consumption and Income • PPP – Purchasing Power Parity • IEA - International Energy Agency • CIA data Is similar • Larger numbers – same shape • Causal or correlative? • Is $$$ = energy • “Our economy runs on oil”

  22. CO2 Emissions & Income

  23. U.S. Energy Consumption Breakdown • Population: U.S. – 300M; OECD-L – 700M; ROW – 5,700M • U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home)

  24. Target 1 – Housing (15.4 BOE/c/year) Deep building retrofits – Model is German Passive House Affordable Comfort, Inc.’s 1,000 Home Challenge is retrofit model Target 2 – Cars (13.5 BOE/c/year) Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit – 30 companies Electric bicycles – China’ real transportation growth Motor coaches between cities Target 3 – Food (10 BOE/c/year) Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products Change your diet to locally grown non-industrial food Meeting 80 – 90% Reduction Targets

  25. Per capita square foot 1950 – 260 2008 – 800 New U.S. home size 1950 – 1,000 sq. ft. 2008 – 2,400 sq. ft U.S. residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan This is a cultural issue Target #1 – U.S. Homes – Size Matters Most

  26. U.S. Energy Use in Buildings • 50% of U.S. energy is used in buildings • 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy • U.S. has about 115 million residences (80 million buildings) • Most will need to be retrofitted

  27. “Green Building” – Too Little, Too Late LEED and Energy Star Ineffective • Green programs reduce energy use by 15-20% • Need 80-90% • “Green buildings” about 5% of new construction • Less than 1% of existing homes are “green” after 10 years • Will take decades to turn over the building stock

  28. Needed – A Thick, Tight Building Envelope

  29. Passive Houses use 90% less heating and cooling energy They have no external heat source or air conditioning Super-insulated and super air tight The German Passive House

  30. 13th Annual Passive House Conference • Held April 2009 in Frankfurt, Germany • 1,200 attendees from around world • 100 presenters • Tours of homes/schools • About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date • 18 years since first one was built – a maturing technology • Great windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants • Achieving 90% heating/cooling energy reduction • Germans credit U.S. builders of 1970s as inventors!

  31. Challenge – Retrofit Existing Buildings • 1,000-square-foot Carriage House • Thicken walls, roof, floors • First floor 4” rigid, 7-” fiberglass • Double wall added – 12’ total • Roof rafters – from 2x4 to 2x12 • Installed a HRV heat exchanger • Required for Passive Houses • Replaced windows • A model for retrofitting

  32. U.S. has 220+ million cars/SUVs/pickups U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime 75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades Hybrids are less than 1% of cars on road after 10 years Sales are between 2-3% of total sales This is a little known “scale” issue Target #2 – The Private Car

  33. Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox) • Efficiency isn’t the answer • From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars? • 3 times the efficiency – 4 times the number of cars • 1-2% yearly tech improvements and population increase • 2-4% yearly oil depletion rate

  34. U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone • Passengers per trip – U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008 • There are many empty seats moving around

  35. Conventional Mass Transit Questionable Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool –1,294 Some people object to these numbers – researching more now U.S. Transportation Energy Data Book 2008 How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

  36. What About a Jitney? • A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule • An unlicensed taxicab • Essence of the Jitney • Shared transit with private cars • Not mass transit with buses • Every existing car can be jitney • Common in 85% of world • Can cut energy use 80%

  37. Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules Made possible by new communications/GPS technology A software problem – not hardware; all components exist! First U.S. conference held in April, 2009 at MIT Also called dynamic ride sharing Status – Operational!!! Avego of Ireland has test systems running Should expect announcements soon in California Can get software with an IPHONE – start today! The “Smart” Jitney

  38. May be the hardest change – behavior modification But the easiest physically – no new technology Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan books explain this Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars Suffering of containment food animals is beyond belief Garden and buy locally grown food CS has its own garden – supports CSAs John Michael Greer – organic garden is contemporary!! Restore rural America – an Agrarian Society Target #3 – Food

  39. Council formed Electrical System Task Force in 2007 Cancelled a new $3 million electrical substation Withdrew from planned AMP–Ohio coal plant Formed Energy Task Force for long range planning New home energy audit company formed – Net0Homes Net0Homes, CS and University of Dayton Partnership CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership CS submitted bid for DOE Retrofit program in December A partnership of 5 organizations Must measure usage and design solutions – not easy Local Work in Yellow Springs

  40. Peak Oil could occur any day IEA has acknowledge Peak Oil – Says 2020 Dates are less important than the acknowledgement Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” Artic ice melt is accelerating Survivability needs 80-90% reduction of energy use (3-4% yearly) “Incrementalism is death”… Stephen Tanner (BioHaus) No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV Must change habits and way of life – become different people Using intermediate low risk technologies Time Is Getting Short

  41. Early 2000s was like pre-depression period (roaring 1920s) Things were declining rapidly before October 1929 – like now The financial crisis is a crisis of character The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes Consumer debt triggered both depressions Free market has become a license to steal Community provides an alternative value system Cooperation, not competition Values of “caring and sharing” Expect a Community Resurgence

  42. CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community Assumes no techno-fixes can maintain current way of life CS projects are directed at personal consumption (2/3 of energy) Working with Low Energy building organizations – Affordable Comfort, Inc., Passive House Institute-US, 2FOR1, DOE Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) Working with local farmers for local food production Our view – a return to high-satisfaction, low-energy communities World sacrificed community for consumerism Horrible mistake – community will be reborn Strong community means less materialism (energy) Summary

  43. Einstein’s Reminder • “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them” • It’s time for new values and new thinking • Relationships better than stuff • “Live simply so others may simply live” • Others include our children! • Plan C offers both

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