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DEPARTMENT OF CSIRO PRIMARY INDUSTRIES ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

DEPARTMENT OF CSIRO PRIMARY INDUSTRIES ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH. Options for Victorian Agriculture in a “New” Climate. a pilot study linking climate change scenario modelling and land suitability modelling Bob Cechet, Adam Hood & Hemayet Hussain. Background.

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DEPARTMENT OF CSIRO PRIMARY INDUSTRIES ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

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  1. DEPARTMENT OF CSIRO PRIMARY INDUSTRIES ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH Options for Victorian Agriculture in a “New” Climate • a pilot study linking climate change scenariomodelling and land suitability modelling • Bob Cechet, Adam Hood & Hemayet Hussain

  2. Background • Victorian Greenhouse Strategy • Understand climate change impacts and • develop adaptation options with sectors/community • Funding - Ecological Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (DPI) - Greenhouse Policy Unit (DSE)

  3. Land Suitability Framework • Developed by United Nations F.A.O. • Assesses suitability of land for specific use • Assessment undertaken using spatial datasets for various elements based on a function of the interaction between them and/or through a multi-criteria analysis method

  4. Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) • Developed using ArcView Model Builder • Uses discrete spatial datasets of soil, landscape and climate (within G.I.S. environment) • Based on “expert systems” approach • Easy to scale to regional/strategic levels • Highly flexible (dependent on question being asked) • Simple to manipulate/interrogate

  5. Project Design

  6. What is OzClim • Based on NZ CLIMPACTS • Climate scenario generator • Explore ranges of climate change • Link climate change with impact models • PC based, GUI interface • Easy to operate, quick to produce results • www.dar.csiro.au/publications/ozclim.htm

  7. Choose low emission scenario IS92c o 0.7 C C) C) o o 4 4 3 3 2 2 Global warming ( Global warming ( 1 1 o o 0 0 1980 1980 2010 2010 2040 2040 2070 2070 2100 2100 Year Year Finding the global warming (I.P.C.C.) Emissions (eg.CO2) Concentrations (eg.CO2) Global Warming Choose low climate sensitivity

  8. Projected global average warming: 1.4ºC to 5.8ºC by 2100(I.P.C.C. T.A.R., 2001)

  9. Creating regional “patterns of change” Global Temperature (oC) Point Temperature (oC) Global Temperature (oC) YEAR Point Temperature (oC) /OC of GW YEAR

  10. Future mean regional temperatures + XGW2060 [1oC – 3oC] Base Climatology Regional pattern from GCM Global Warming = Result 2060

  11. Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) • Incorporates Multiple Criteria Evaluation [MCE] (within G.I.S. environment) • MCE improves spatial decision making when considering multiple objectives and conflicting preferences • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a MCE method that orders critical factors into a hierarchy of importance

  12. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Construction of hierarchies; establishing priorities; ensuring logical consistency • Improves representativeness as all factors do not have equal weighting of importance • Allows criteria to “trade-off” with each other depending on importance weights

  13. Analytical Hierarchy Process, showing the model used for high yield pasture: “(criteria weighting)”

  14. Assessment of Impacts (Summary of Outputs) • Series of specialist workshops developing awareness & building suitable commodity mode • Mapped commodity scenarios 2000, 2020 and 2050 • Gippsland • cool climate grapes • high yield pasture • blue gum plantations for years • Mallee (wheat)* • Goulburn/Broken region (stone & pomme fruits)* • Economic and Social Implications* • Industry and Regional Adaptation Options* • Recommendations for further work on toolkit* • *Work currently being undertaken

  15. Graffiti on a billboard in Smith Street, Fitzroy.

  16. More… • 8 GCM datasets, 2 regional models • 6 climatic variables • Export options • Regions covered and higher resolution • Links to impact models

  17. Methodological Approach to Land Suitability Analysis

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