Hazard Patterns in Europe: Workshop Report

1. Needs and Recommendations Regional Report for Europe (Erich Plate) Types of Hazard in Europe European Regional Consultationin Preparation of the EWC II 28 -29July, Potsdam, Germany Jointly Organised by GFZ, HGF, DKKV • Workshop Structure • Disaster Patterns and Emerging Issues • Advances,Constraints, Case Studies and Best Practices • National and European Planning Participants: 23 Experts from 10 European Countries, ISDR, UNDP, DKKV, Federal Foreign Office of Germany EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

2. Storms extra-tropical cyclons (winterstorms) hail storms sting jets tornadoes from North Earthquakes/Tsunamis to South Disaster Patterns Types of Hazard in Europe Space Weather Storm Surges Floods river floods flash floods Winter Hazards Land Slides Wild Land Fires Volcanoes EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

3. Disaster Patterns Relative Impact of Natural Disasters % 2000-2002 100 Casualities Economic Losses 80 60 40 32,8% 20 2,5% Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Source: Munich Re Europe (2000-2002):Casualities 1137 Economic Losses 33 billion $ EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

4. What is happening? • Wild land fires (Mediterranean) 50000 per year 600000 ha/year burned . . . • What could happen ? • Earthquake in Central Europe (Aachen, Cologne, Bonn?) Possible losses > 50 billion $ • Mt. Vesuvius Volcanoe eruption more than 300000 people directly threatened . . . Disaster Patterns Heaviest Natural Disasters in Europe Since 1980 • What has happened? • Winterstorms 1990 14,8 billion $ • River flood 2002 13,5 billion $ • Earthquake Italy 1980 12.0 billion $ • Winterstorms 1999 11.0 billion $ • Flooding/Landslides 2000 8.5 billion $ EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

5. • Extra tropical cyclones: -southward shift of paths  more severe storms ! • Wild land fires: - up to 4 times more often since 1950 - area burned: twice as much as 1970 • Landslides: - new type due to melting of permafrost in the Alps • Greenhouse gas: - Melting of tundra underground  release of methane! Disaster Patterns, Emerging Issues Influence of Global Warming ? New Type of Hazard • Space weather extremes - major power supply failures - interruptions in telecommunication - increased radiation exposure in aircrafts and spacecrafts - effect on climate change? EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

6. Main Shortcomings in the Links Between the EW – Segments! • insufficient communication • differences in terminology • indistinct information flow • missing integration of the Local population • misunderstandings Constraints, Advances and Shortcomings The Early Warning Chain: Lessons Learned! Hazard- Vulnerability- Risk- Assessment Forecast Forecast Warning Response Population Local Authorities Science/ Decision Decision Makers Science Techn. • Advances in Hazard Assessment But: • Country Wide Vulnerability- and Risk-Assessment Not Existent But Starting EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

7. Civil Contingency Legislation in the UK (2004-4?) Shift part of the responsibility down from the administrative top to the local level Eastern Europe: Move from a military disaster management approach to a civil society approach CEUDIP: Central European Disaster Prevention Forum IKSR: Int. Comm. for the Safety of the Rhine IKSD: Danube, IKSE: Elbe IKSO: Oder, IKSMS: Mosel Agree onborder crossing action programsfor disaster protection EFAS: European Flood Alert System ( Redding, UK) EFFIS: European Forest Fires Information System (JRC, EC) Euras. Experim. Fire Weather Inform. Syst. (GFMC, Can. Forest Serv.) European Severe Storm Centre (proposed) Establish European Disaster Information Centres Int. Charteron Space and Major Disasters GMES: Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security HGF Research Netw. “Integrat. Earth Observ. System” (Germany) Establish Integrated Earth Observing Systems Initiateharmonisation and standardisationof disaster – and early warning related information and procedures EU-MEDIN:European -Mediterranean Disaster Information Network DFNK: German Research Network for Natural Disasters CEDIM: Centre for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technologies (Germany) Start with regional mapping of natural risks (probability of losses) National and European Planning Some Important Features of Scientific and Strategic Planning EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

8. Needs and Recommendations Organisational Needs Scientific/Techn. Needs • Assessment of EW Efficiency - Cost benefit analysis • Improved Chain of Warning -clearly defined information- and command chain - local group integration - obtain the confidence of people at risk - interaction between professional/techn. providers and local population • Sustained Dialogueat and between various levels and sectors of the early warning chain • Common Actions on a European Level- communication - terminology - standardisation and harmonisation - legislation (common benchmarks) - education - training • Improved Data Collection and -Availability • Improved Forecasting Models- short term forecasting - effect of global warming? • Risk Maps - country wide and European wide - synoptic multitype risk assessment - interaction between science and reinsurance industry EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany

9. Record and support progress in the early warning process • Interact with regional and national platforms and foster their establishment • Disseminate early warning knowledge • Strengthen coordination and cooperation • Bring together early warning information from different countries • Assist in the dialogue between institutes of all continents • Build EU-capacity • Further develop networks • Assist in the development of standards for Early warning • Provide an early warning discussion forum • Establish links between users and providers • Support the improvement of the chain of warning Needs and Recommendations International Early Warning Platform EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany