300 likes | 311 Views
Explore Chile's economic journey, from rapid growth to recent slowdowns, examining factors like free markets, income distribution, and development issues. Assess Chile's strengths and weaknesses in the global economy.
E N D
Overview • Chile is one of a handful of countries that has made an effort to rely on free markets rather than state involvement to • Accelerate growth and • Move the country toward affluence • The results have been spectacular pushing the country’s per capita income to the top in Latin America • However in recent years growth has sharply decelerated • The slowdown raises questions about • The Chilean model and • Where it went wrong
Free Markets, Autocratic Rule • Chile’s free-market approach began as a series of economic reforms by a group of American educated economists – the Chicago Boys in early years of the Pinochet regime • The reforms • Quadrupled GDP per capita • So successful adopted by both center-right and center-left governments • Produced a prolonged period of policy continuity • The reforms also enabled the country to avoid the disastrous experiments in • Populist • Structuralist and • Heterdox policymaking
Tiger Economy • Early success invited comparisons with the East Asian Tiger economies • As with Tigers rapid growth achieved by • Unleashing the private sector and • Opening up the economy to foreign trade and investment • Even after the establishment of democracy in 1990,Chile’s growth rate • Averaged nearly 5% for two decades • Almost double for that of Latin America as a whole • Country seemed immune from the boom-bust-cycles that undermined productivity and living standards in Brazil and Argentina
Coming up Short • However unlike Asian Tigers where decades of sustained growth have led to convergence with the with advanced countries – Chile well short of the mark • Chile’s growth slowed gradually • 1990s -- 6.1% • 2000s – 4.6% • 2010-16 3.9% • Since 2014 growth has been very weak – IMF estimates 1.9% for 2014-17 • With no end in sight credit ratings agencies began downgrading bonds in 2017 • President Michelle Bachelet’s center-left economic team resigned soon after.
Causes of the Slow-down I • Full explanation of the causes of the slow-down eludes explanation. • Chile still ranks a very respectable 33rd out of 138 countries on the WEF competitiveness index • Ahead of Spain, Italy and Turkey and • First in Latin America • More promising explanation, while Asian Tigers and Chile carved out similar approaches to development their starting conditions were different in significant ways
Causes of the Slow-down II • When Tigers began their development push • They had already completed significant land reforms meaning income distribution good • Their reasonably healthy financial systems and commitment to quality universal public education insured the benefits of growth would continue to be spread through the population • By contrast Chile was • Highly stratified society in 1970s in which elites not only controlled a disproportionate share of income and wealth, but also the power to distort policy • Blocked land reform • Opted for a largely private and very expensive educational system • The Chilean financial sector was weakened by decades of high inflation -- sound investment decisions difficult
Development Problems Mount I • If Chicago Boys expected the rising tide would allow Chile to outgrow its inequalities – disappointed. • In 2013 World Bank data showed • The wealthiest 10% of Chileans received 41% of the nations income • Less than 2% of the national income trickled down to the poorest 10% • Chile has the highese levels of inequality among the 34 member OECD • Education system perpetuates this inequality
Development Problems Mount II • Only wealthiest Chileans can afford high quality schools that adequately prepare students for skilled work in the country’s increasingly sophisticated economy • Chileans lower on the income sale – especially in the middle class run up massive debts for education they discover later was substandard • In 2016-17 Chile ranked 99th of 138 countries in quality of math and science education • This income based disparity not only • Fosters widespread resentment but also • Deprives Chile of labor force required to propel the country to fully developed status
Development Problems Mount III • The pension system which Pinochet’s government privatized in 1980s another flashpoint for dissatisfaction • Defined contribution system compels workers to set aside 10% income • In early years of stock-market boom everyone looked good • Over time lower returns on investments brought on by lack of competition among the financial service providers have left may Chileans in bad financial shape • Average benefit of $340 per month, nearly 80% of Chilean pensions generate less income than the minimum wage.
Social Frictions • When growth was rapid the frictions between the haves and have-nots did not lead to much open unrest • Now demonstrations protesting the • Broken education system • Poor working conditions and • Dismal pension prospects • Demonstrations are predominately a middle-class phenomenon. • Fueled by rising frustration at unmet expectations
Declining Governance • As social tensions have increased, a marked deterioration in the quality of governance • During the 1990s and into the 2000s,Chile had scores on the World Bank’s governance indices approaching those of the advanced industrial democracies. • Since then Chile’s governance scores have either fallen or at best remained static. • Not surprisingly there has been a sharp decline in Chileans’ confidence in their government and institutions • Chile dropped 25 places in Legatum Institute’s social capital (measure of trust) between 2007 and 2016
Reform Attempts • In an attempt to reduce the sting of inequality the center-left government introduced a series of reforms to address imbalances in services and benefits • Met strong opposition from country’s elites. • Tax reforms to increase education funding were opposed by business groups • Labor reforms were challenged by the courty’s business owners and never made it through the Congress • Attempts to reform pension system were derailed by a series of government corruption scandals and President Bachelett’s low popularity
Assessment • After Bachelet’s Party swept out of office by conservatives in mid-December 2017 Chile’s future appears clouded • Lessons • Chicago Boys’ economic model has hit the skids. • Pure free market approach can produce high rates of growth as resources are initially allocate more efficiently. • Sustaining that growth usually requires • Good governance and • A broad commitment to social inclusion • Unfortunately, Chile shows few signs of finding ways to make that happen.