PROBLEMS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIA Oleg F. Vasiliev

1. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 PROBLEMS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIA Oleg F. Vasiliev (Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, SB RAS, Novosibirsk)

2. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004

3. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 OB RIVER BASIN

4. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004

5. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN SIBERIA FOR THE LAST YEARS Lena River , 1998 and 2001 18 May, 1988 – maximum water level 1702 sm for period of observation Damage 7,000,000,000 rub 18 May, 2001 – maximum water level 2012 sm South of the West Siberia, April 2004 Floods in the Tom, Abakan, Biya, Ob river basins due to heavy rains In the Tom River basin: Kondoma river (Kuzdeevo) maximum water level for period of observation from 1931 6000 houses have been damaged, 10 people have died Damage – 700,000,000 rub Abakan River (Abaza) – rain flood – water level rising – ice jam Yenisei River Reservoirs of Yenisei Hydropower Stations, April 2004 Heavy rain – inflow to Sayano-Shushenskoye Reservoir 3380 m3/s (normal 2570) – inflow to Krasnoyarskoye Reservoir 3820 m3/s (normal 3100) Yenisei, June 1988(the highest flood) – Abakan River – max discharge more than 5000 m3/s – Total Inflow to Krasnoyarskoye Reservoir and outflow from it during rising of flood have increased from 4000 to 12600 m3/s, downstream water level have been increased on 4 m. Damage 50,000,000 $

6. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 Flooding in the streatch of the Ob River near Barnaul (April 2004) (Images made by MODIS at NASA)

7. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 Program of Fundamental Studies of the RAS Presidium “ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATIC CHANGE: NATURAL DISASTERS” Project N 13/15: ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIAN ENVIRONMENT 1. Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, SB RAS, Barnaul/Novosibirsk 2. Institute of Geography, SB RAS, Irkutsk 3. Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk 4. Lavrentyev Institute of Hydrodynamics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk 5. Institute of Mathematics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk 6. Institute of Petroleum and Gas Problems, SB RAS, Yakutsk 7. Institute of the Physical-Technological Problems of the North of SB RAS, Yakutsk 8. Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS, Tomsk 9. Novosibirsk State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Novosibirsk 10. Siberian Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring – ROSHYDROMET, Novosibirsk

8. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 NATO ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS: NEW CONCEPTS FOR SECURITY 11-15 July, 2005, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA Co-Directors: Prof. Johannes K. VRIJLING, TU Delft, the Netherlands Prof. Oleg F. VASILIEV, SB RAS, Russia MAIN TOPICS: 1. Genesis (physical mechanisms) of floods: initiation and formation 2. Stochastic models of maximum and minimum runoff 3. The probability of maximum possible floods (the PMF theory) and other extreme hydrologic events 4. Floods caused by ice phenomena 5. Engineering and non-engineering methods of the flood control and management 6. Operational forecasting of floods 7. Risk assessment for floods, low water events and damages related to them; vulnerability issues 8. Floods, draughts and the environmental security 9. Extreme hydrological phenomena and climate

9. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM 1. Climatology vers Hydrology 2. Hydrologic cycle 3. Change of water balance and the runoff from a river basin 4. Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena 5. How can climatic Hot Spots exert influence on hydrologic systems and their behaviour? 6. Drought Research and management 7. Conclusion

10. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 1. CLIMATOLOGY VERS HYDROLOGY Local (regional, mesoscale) climatic changes vers hydrologic changes and anomalies (in river basin scale) 2. HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SURFACE WATER BALANCE EQUATION • P – E –T – F– R = ΔS, (1) • Hence SURFACE RUNOFF • R = P – E – T– F –ΔS (2) • Similar interrelations can be written for the balance of ground waters. P – precipitation,E – evaporation, T- transpiration F – infiltration,R – surface runoff outflow, ΔS – change in storage.

11. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 3. CHANGE OF WATER BALANCE AND THE RUNOFF FROM A RIVER BASIN AS: ● the response of hydrologic system to a climatic change through changes of − characteristic temperatures of air and soils − atmospheric precipitations (rains and snow) − evaporation and transpiration ● the indicator of climatic changers in a river basin (an integrated indicator)

12. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 4. EXTREME HYDROLOGIC PHENOMENA are generally caused by extreme meteorological conditions. In particular, it is usually relevant with respect to floods and low-water flows in rivers. Mostly an origin of such events can result from an abnormal relationship between the main components of the water balanceseither surface or ground waters.

13. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 5. HOW CAN CLIMATIC HOT SPOTS EXERT INFLUENCE ON HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS AND THEIR BEHAVIOUR? A locus and spread of Hot Spot are determined from non-homogeneity of the fields of climatic characteristics in space and time (such as temperature fields etc.) If the watershed of a river is covered completely or partially by a Hot Spot it must resultin its water balance and hence in a river runoff. Actually, such components of water budget as an atmospheric precipitation and evapotranspiration strongly depend on the meteorological conditions. For example, both evaporation and transpiration depend very much on atmospheric temperature , wind, radiation expose. Therefore the change of climatic conditions well lead to a change of runoff of surface water from a river basin. The infiltration of surface water to ground layers can be also affected, as well as the balance of ground waters. It result in a change of runoff of ground water to a drainage river system. Note that the inflow of ground water to rivers is a major contribution to a winter river runoff in the zones with moderate climate.

14. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 TOM RIVER BASIN

15. INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»Tomsk 2004 6. Drought Research and Management This very important topic is directly related to a concept of the project that is being considered here. 7. Conclusion There are good grounds to state that the problem of climatic Hot Spots is tightly related to the most actual problems of modern Hydrology including issue of Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena