Pattern Recognition: a necessary skill to understand Causality in Complex Systems

1. Pattern Recognition: a necessary skill to understand Causality in Complex Systems Federica Raia City College of New York of City University of New York Teaching and Learning about Complex Earth Systems

2. agent based modeling program Project inspired by the behavior of termites gathering wood chips into piles. The termites follow a set of simple rules. Each termite starts wandering randomly. If it bumps into a wood chip, it picks the chip up, and continues to wander randomly. When it bumps into another wood chip, it finds a nearby empty space and puts its wood chip down. termites Wilensky, U., 1999. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

3. NetLogo-Termites Simulation – Wilensky, U., 1999. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

4. NetLogo-Termites Simulation – Wilensky, U., 1999. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL Students response “NO WAY!!!!!”

5. Single Cause Students making sense of complex natural phenomena, often assume deterministic causality considering phenomena as being mechanistically caused by a unique cause that completely explains observed pattern or by a linear chain of causes and effects. (Gutierrez and Ogborn, 1992; Resnick and Wilensky, 1993; Wilensky and Resnick, 1999; Perkins and Grotzer, 2000;; Andersson, 1986; Viennot, 1998; Perkins and Gotzer, 2000; Nicoll, 2001; Taber, 2001 Raia, 2005; Jacobson and Wilensky; 2006 Raia 2008). SnowCrystals.com was created by KG. Libbrecht, Caltech [….] they have some kind of bonds, in certain ways they fit together based on attraction ……are attracted.

6. Linear Chain of causes and effects C1 E1 C2 E2 C1+ C2 = E1 + E2 QUESTION: Species became extinct, how can that happen? Develop a hypothesis that could account for the extinction of a species student: “it is related to why they stay alive. If you take that away, they become extinct. For example, if you cut the food supply, the species will not be able to live or if you cut off their environment they need, they will die. If you look how they strive in an environment...then you make what was positive for them negative, then they die” Onset of glaciations Caused by drastic change in the average atmospheric temperature Caused by a variation of the energy received by the sun Meteorite impacting Earth’s orbit

7. CLASSROOM APPLICATION • “WHAT CAUSED IT” • “WHY IT HAPPENS” Students’ Questions • How students will try to answer their question: - “I don’t know” - “look in database of causes”

8. Two different approaches Modified from Raia (2005), Students' understanding of complex dynamic systems, JGE, 53, pp. 297-308.

9. Two different approaches Modified from Raia (2005), Students' understanding of complex dynamic systems, JGE, 53, pp. 297-308.

10. EFFICIENT CAUSALITY FORMAL CAUSALITY CAUSALITY MATERIAL CAUSALITY FUNCTIONAL CAUSALITY Raia F., Causality in Complex Dynamic Systems: A Challenge in Earth Systems Science Education. JGE, 56, 81-94, 2008

11. FORMAL EFFICIENT CAUSALITY MATERIAL FUNCTIONAL Causality Principles Formal Control Effective Control Functional Control MATERIAL CAUSALITY characteristic material properties of a given level play in the evolution of a system. These may include potential energy, specific energy of state (Emmeche et al. 2000), the type of molecules or their density distribution in a given fluid in the example of the crystal formation. On our evolving planet : the presence of small amounts of dissolved water in the asthenosphere seems to greatly influence the Earth-like plate tectonics (Hirth, 2001; Regenauer-Lieb et al., 2001; Solomatov, 2004). * Raia F., Causality in Complex Dynamic Systems: JGE, 56, 81-94, 2008

12. FORMAL EFFICIENT CAUSALITY MATERIAL FUNCTIONAL Causality Principles Material Control Effective Control Functional Control FORMAL CAUSALITY it is the pattern by which something is organized, or how it is structured. at a particular level of the hierarchy, formal causes might arise from the more slowly varying values of dynamic variables at higher levels of description, which enter as boundary conditions at the level of interest. In plate tectonics, the changing of surface boundary condition -the migration of continents, ridges and trenches - can exert formal control on mantle dynamics (Anderson, 2002; Stein and Hansen, 2001). Raia F., Causality in Complex Dynamic Systems. JGE, 56, 81-94, 2008

13. FORMAL EFFICIENT CAUSALITY MATERIAL FUNCTIONAL Causality Principles Material Control Formal Control Effective Control Functional Control EFFICIENT CAUSALITY Itis the standard sense in which physical science conceptualizes causality (Bunge, 1979). It can be envisioned as a force, an agent that acts on an object entailing a temporal cause-effect relation. It results in a temporal sequence of states or phenomena being causally interrelated. Efficient causality implicates an interactional exchange of energy pertaining to the entities of a given level as the molecules interactions level described in the example of crystal formation Raia F., Causality in Complex Dynamic Systems. JGE, 56, 81-94, 2008

14. FORMAL EFFICIENT CAUSALITY MATERIAL FUNCTIONAL Causality Principles Material Control Formal Control Effective Control Functional Cause FUNCTIONALCAUSALITY A regulating function of maintaining the system coherence within its dynamic behavior . functional causality at the global system level controls the evolution of the system through negative feedback. Adaptation and self-organization can be described by this principle of causality. The system lithosphere-asthenosphere the minimization of dissipation in the lithosphere, may be the organizing rule for global reorganization (Anderson 2002). Raia F., Causality in Complex Dynamic Systems. JGE, 56, 81-94, 2008

15. Student : they are snowflakes” Interviewer: “how do you know?” Student : “ I don’t know, I just know” (Silence non other words) Question again Student “ I saw pictures of them and some of them look like this” Interviewer: “Like this how?” Student : “ Like this” […] Student : “ I don’t know they look alike”. CAUSALITY STUDENTS DO NOT DESCRIBE PATTERNS What are these? Kate: “ they are snowflakes” Interviewer: “how do you know?” Kate: “ I don’t know, I just know” (Silence non other words) Question again Kate: “ I saw pictures of them and some of them look like this” Interviewer: “Like this how?” Kate: “ Like this” […] Kate: “ I don’t know they look alike”. […] Kate: “ I think chemistry, they have some kind of bonds, in certain ways they fit together based on attraction …somehow the electrons of these other ones(points at the sides of the crystals)…are attracted.” Interviewer: which electrons? Kate: “you see the one the molecules of the water is polar, so they connect O is negative and H is positive so they attract…I don’t know why they would do that Interviewer: “What do you mean?” Kate: “ when you see ice on the floor it isn’t .. it doesn’t look like flakes….mmm I guess it does have a crystal structure, so if you have a microscope you can see it …there is a difference between snow and ice …there is no structured ice. It is like the geese there is areason why they do it ….. But I don’t know why, why they do it, there must be a reason, but i really don’t know why” Kate: “You see there is a pattern and there must be a reason why” Interviewer: “I am not clear on what do you mean by “reason”, can you explain to me?” Kate: “ for example, this is very basic, tomorrow I have to present on quantum physics I feel that it is not important unless there is a cause that you can use it for …underlying motivation” Interviewer: ok I understand this for a human behavior, in terms of our crystals what does it mean, can you give me some examples? Kate: “ there is reason for behaving for example bonds here. If you drop something …the reason that that something falls down is because of gravity ...there is a pattern and is due to gravity …and here (points at the flakes) is the same, there is a pattern so there is a reason that leads to this structure” What are these? How do they form? How do they form?

16. CAUSALITY […]need to add the times: 11 sec for sand +3 sec for gravel…[…]” STUDENTS DO NOT DESCRIBE PATTERNS “well, we have 3 things: sand, gravel and water.Sand is smaller than graveland ispacked this way(draws for the first time), more compacted because, see, gravel, yes leaves more space and when water goes..mmm what I am thinking now …see the sand can interact too with the gravel …see the sandcan be moved a bit bythe waterandcan move among the gravel and clog the voids…mmm this will account for a delay …see yes, ah, I cannot really add the times, something else can happen between the sand the water and the gravel” Modified From GLOBE curriculum QUESTION [….] Rank the amount of time the water will take to pass through each material from shortest to longest In another container, the same amount of sand as in experiment 1 rests on an equal amount of gravel. How long will it take for the water to pass through?

17. CAUSALITY USING FORMAL CAUSALITY Modified From GLOBE curriculum “well, we have 3 things: sand, gravel and water.Sand is smaller than graveland ispacked this way(draws for the first time), more compacted because, see, gravel, yes leaves more space and when water goes ... what I am thinking now …see the sand can interact too with the gravel …see the sandcan be moved a bit by the waterandcan move among the gravel and clog the voids … this will account for a delay …see yes, ah, I cannot really add the times, something else can happen between the sand the water and the gravel” QUESTION [….] Rank the amount of time the water will take to pass through each material from shortest to longest In another container, the same amount of sand as in experiment 1 rests on an equal amount of gravel. How long will it take for the water to pass through?

18. Working with Data distribution and Patterns

19. Map 4 m Modified after DSawyer ,JGE, 2005

20. Map 1 Ma Modified after DSawyer ,JGE, 2005

21. Map 2 0-33 33-70 70-300 300-700 depth ( km) Modified after DSawyer ,JGE, 2005

22. Map 3 Volcanic activity past 10,000 years Modified after DSawyer ,JGE, 2005

23. CLASSROOM APPLICATION Students’ Questions • “WHAT CAUSED IT” • “WHY IT HAPPENS” At the beginning • How students will try to answer their question: - “I don’t know” - “look in database of causes”

24. Later…. IS THERE A RELATION …. • between the geometry –shape of the trench and the depth of earthquakes • Between the geometry of trench and the age of the crust • between the magnitude and the depth of earthquakes? • between the strength and frequency of the hurricane and the sea surface temperature in the Atlantic. • between the path the thermohaline current travels and the path which a hurricane travels. WHERE DO WE FIND • Where are trenches located CLASSROOM APPLICATION • “WHAT CAUSED IT” • “WHY IT HAPPENS” Students’ Questions At the beginning • How students will try to answer their question: - “I don’t know” - “look in database of causes”

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