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LAND USES: BIOMASS FOR FOOD AND FUEL IN BRAZIL - THE NEXT 20 YEARS JOSE ROBERTO MOREIRA

LAND USES: BIOMASS FOR FOOD AND FUEL IN BRAZIL - THE NEXT 20 YEARS JOSE ROBERTO MOREIRA CENTRO NACIONAL DE REFERENCIA DE BIOMASSA WORKSHOP SUSTENTABILIDADE NA GERAÇÃO E USO DE ENERGIA NO BRASIL: OS PRÓXIMOS VINTE ANOS CAMPINAS 18-20 DE FEVEREIRO, 2002. TECHNOLOGY ISSUES.

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LAND USES: BIOMASS FOR FOOD AND FUEL IN BRAZIL - THE NEXT 20 YEARS JOSE ROBERTO MOREIRA

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  1. LAND USES: BIOMASS FOR FOOD AND FUEL IN BRAZIL - THE NEXT 20 YEARS JOSE ROBERTO MOREIRA CENTRO NACIONAL DE REFERENCIA DE BIOMASSA WORKSHOP SUSTENTABILIDADE NA GERAÇÃO E USO DE ENERGIA NO BRASIL: OS PRÓXIMOS VINTE ANOS CAMPINAS 18-20 DE FEVEREIRO, 2002

  2. TECHNOLOGY ISSUES

  3. Long term technical potential - renewable energy supply 2100 Total Energy Demand for SRES scenario ranges 515-2737 EJ/yr Source: IPCC-TAR, 2001

  4. 40 40 40 IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios 35 35 35 A1FI 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 A1B 15 15 15 10 10 10 650 A1T 750 650 550 650 5 550 5 5 450 550 450 450 0 0 0 Global Anthropogenic Carboon Dioxide Emissions (GtC) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 40 40 40 IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios IPCC SRES A2 Scenarios 35 35 35 30 30 30 A2 25 25 25 20 20 20 B2 15 15 15 750 10 10 10 650 B1 550 550 5 5 550 5 450 450 0 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 How to stabilise concentrations? Emissions to be avoided: 300-1500 GtC

  5. Mitigation options • Energy efficiency • Decarbonisation • energy sources • CO2 removal and storage • Biological carbon sequestration • Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

  6. Mitigation options • Energy efficiency • Decarbonisation • energy sources • CO2 removal and storage • Biological carbon sequestration • Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

  7. AMOUNT OF LAND REQUIRED FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRODUCTION MILLION HA WIND 300 (1) SOLAR ENERGY 393 (2) BIOMASS 1280 (3) 1) 10% of all earth land area with wind speed above 5.1 m/s at 10m height 2) 10% of the land area classified as “other lands” category by the FAO(1999) 3) All potential crop land area not been required for food crops in year 2050 are used

  8. Source: Turkenburg, 2000

  9. Source: IPCC SAR WGII, 1996

  10. ENERGY PRODUCTION FROM SUGARCANE PLANTATION- AREA EQUIVALENT TO SOYBEANS CROP - BRAZIL 2002/2020

  11. Barriers to achieving the potential of technologies Thermodynamic potential Knowledge gap Carbon efficiency High costs Technological potential Values, attitudes, social barriers Socio-economic potential Market failures Economic potential Market potential Time

  12. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES

  13. What are the main barriers to reach the (socio-)economic potential? • Data, information, knowledge, awareness • Access to capital, especially smaller firms • Risk aversion in financial institutions, incl MDB’s • Trade barriers such as tariffs or export restrictions • Human and institutional capabilities • Missing codes and standards for EST’s • Low, subsidised conventional energy prices • Absence of full-cost pricing • Individual preferences/ lifestyle • Poverty

  14. MITIGATION POTENTIAL TILL 2020 Compare to: 300-1500 Gt to be avoided over 100 years Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001

  15. A spokeswoman for the Mossman Central Mill-Australia said: 1) The Queensland and Federal Governments committed more than $10 million to the ethanol pilot plant project earlier this year; 2) Ethanol does not just have the potential to benefit cane growers but the environment and fuel consumers as well. Peter Sheedy - Manager Herbert River District Canegrowers said: 1) An ethanol blend offers a cleaner burning fuel; 2) Ethanol would also cut Australia's dependence on fossil fuel; 3) Ethanol has constantly to be kept on our radar screens. Australian Cane Farmers Association chairman Warren Martin has: 1) Called for an immediate expansion of Australia's ethanol industry; 2) Stated many European countries already have mandatory ethanol-blend fuel; 3) Ethanol may ultimately provide the answer to more environmental issues than just greenhouse gas abatement," he said; 4) Additionally it will assist Australia to fill its own energy needs and rely less on imports. Edition: ; Page: 001; Section: News

  16. Japan eyes ethanol to cut greenhouse gas emissions Aya Takada (Reuters) Tokyo, December 20 , 2001 Japan, under pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions, blamed for global warming, is considering introducing a policy of blending ethanol with gasoline. Giant trading house Mitsui & Co is backing ethanol's introduction to the Japanese fuel market. Estimate of the potential size of Japan's ethanol market is nearly six million kilolitres a year, based on the assumption that Japan would adopt an ethanol-to-gasoline blending ratio of 10 percent," said Mitsui biomass project manager Norimichi Okuda. The Japanese have not used ethanol as fuel because they have not had any compelling need for an alternative But Japan has turned serious about using "green" energy.

  17. From WWP- REPORT ON OIL GAS & PETROCHEMICALS IN THE DEV, August 1st, 2001 Thailand is currently promoting the use of ethanol as an alternative fuel. It can be used as a substitute for the gasoline additive (MTBE). As a results, the governments of Thailand and Austria are considering a plan to set up 5 ethanol plants in Thailand. The Austrian government's has proposed to Thailand that an investment of around $22,000,000 to $44,000,000 could be made for building each of the plants...

  18. ECONOMIC ISSUES

  19. Sugar Prices in the Leading Sugar Trading Nations Net Exporters Net Importers (U.S. cents per pound of white sugar) RetailWholesale-------RetailWholesale Brazil -- 15 Russia 33 22 Australia 35 UnitedStates 4327 EU 60 -- Japan 73 48 Cuba 8 -- South Korea -- 36 Thailand 13 12 Canada 30 16 Guatemala -- 22 Iran NA NA South Africa -- 22 Malaysia 18 17 Colombia -- 27 Algeria ---- Mauritius ---- Indonesia ---- Mexico 23 21 Egypt 21 18 Sources: USDA attached reports, F.O. Licht, PROMAR International

  20. INTERNATIONAL RAW SUGAR PRICES - 1995-1960

  21. GASOLINE PRICES IN ROTERDAN

  22. Carbon Credit Value:Two Scenarios

  23. POTENTIAL C ABATEMENT FROM THE USE OF SUGARCANE FOR FUEL AND ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION - BRAZIL - 13 MILLION HA

  24. POTENTIAL CARBON ABATEMENT PER UNIT OF HARVESTED AREA - SUGARCANE - BRAZIL - 13 MHA

  25. EXTERNAL DEBT IMPACT OF ALCOHOL EXPORTATION BRAZIL 1979/1992

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